The final third of the regular season is upon us, and the run from Rounds 16 to 22 is crucial to setting up your side for Finals.

Because as trades dwindle, the moves you make now will come with serious repercussions if you’re just making up the numbers of ultimately winning your head to head finals.

As it stands at this point of the season, Coaches who are focused on H2H are in one of three positions.

1. Comfortable: you’re probably up the top of your league and easily going to progress into the knockout rounds.
2. Peloton: you’re in the washing machine with a lot of other Coaches and need to work hard to still make it into the knockout rounds.
3. Chasing hard: things haven’t gone your way and you’re desperately trying to climb the ranks just to make finals.

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If you’re in the “comfortable” bracket, the instructions are pretty simple. Save your trades where you can, and position your side to be the best possible version of itself ready for Finals whenever they start.

If you’re in the Peloton, you’ve got a foot in either camp. Yes, you’ll want to be conservative with your trades, but you need to still be making moves to get victories.

If you’re chasing hard, conserving trades is a strategy that has gone out the window. You’re working overtime to improve your side and get the wins.

And this is where analysing the run home becomes really interesting, because it means something different to everyone.

Now next week we will take a dive into the different finals systems and analyse the draws to see the clubs and some players which stand out. But today we’re here to look at the run into Finals (we will focus on a Round 23-26 Finals system).

Below is a table ranking the strength of schedule from Rounds 16 through 22 for each club.

Best Short Term Draws – 16 to 22

What to do with this info:

For H2H and even your SuperCoach Draft comp, it is important to consider where you’re placed and where you want to be in 7 rounds when finals start.

Once you’ve figured that out, you can leverage this info to buy or sell certain players who may be impacted by a tougher or easier draw over the period.

As a caveat, it’s important not to forget the State of Origin impacts for some of the big names in SuperCoach. Not only do you need to consider availability, but also how their team will go without them and if that impacts their attack or defence.

The best draws across Rounds 16 – 22.

Melbourne Storm (no byes, softer games)

The obvious side to target in this period is the Melbourne Storm. Not only have they finished all of their byes now for the season, but they’ve got some really nice match-ups on the run into Finals.

It increases the appeal of guys like Jahrome Hughes whilst also increasing the necessity of guys like Eli Katoa or Ryan Papenhuyzen who are already highly owned by Coaches who do well.

Bulldogs (1x bye, softer teams)

After this week, the Dogs are done with their byes. They also have some really nice match-ups especially post Round 19. We already expect Jacob Kiraz to be popular this week but it only adds to his threat for non-owners. Other PODs from the club also jump out like Kikau, Preston or even Lachie Galvin if he can land a starting role.

Cowboys (no byes, Titans and Dragons).

The Cowboys do not have a bye until Round 27 and have a couple of easy games in the period. They don’t have a lot of SuperCoach relevance – and personally I’m avoiding buying or selling any until post Origin.

Panthers (after round 19, Eels, Rabbits, Tigers, Titans)

The Panthers are heavily impacted by State of Origin and therefore cannot be properly assessed against most normal metrics. But we do know that after Origin 3 they have a gorgeous run of games against the Eels, Rabbits, Tigers and Titans.

As much as Nathan Cleary IS a sell in Round 16 – especially with news emerging of his injured groin – if he’s fit and goal kicking he’s a priority to bring back for those four games. His teammates in Isaah Yeo, Brian To’o and even Blaize Talagi are also looming as POD purchases for that period pending fitness.

Broncos (1x bye, Titans and Eels after 19)

Either side of a frustrating bye in Round 20, the Broncos draw immediately after Origin is good and features the Titans and Eels. They do not have a whole lot of SuperCoach relevance but you’d expect an uplift in their performance during the period.

Canberra Raiders

Aside from a tricky bye to negotiate in Round 19 (and another in 24), the Raiders run is dreamy. The Knights are good defensively but everyone else they play isn’t and most of them are outside of the Top 8.

If you can cover the byes, we should see a continued strong performance from guys like Hudson Young and even PODs like Ethan Strange and Jamal Fogarty. Juicy!

The worst draws from Rounds 16 – 22:

Newcastle Knights (5 times in 7 games, play the Top 4 teams + Dolphins)

The Knights have a tough time of it during this run into Finals and also are on the bye twice. The draw could literally not be any harder.

The good news is that all of their SuperCoach relevant players aren’t crazily attack reliant and do most of their scoring in base – so I don’t think they’re urgent sells. But there’s a world where going against some of them at high ownership could be a good move.

Manly Sea Eagles (2x byes, storm and bulldogs)

We’ve seen it before with the Sea Eagles – they’re a club who can fall in a heap if the ‘vibes’ aren’t right, and right now the vibes are questionable at Brookvale.

After the bye in Round 16 they’ve got another tricky one to negotiate in Round 19 too. Things do open up for them a little bit in H2H Finals but the run from 20-22 is difficult and does curb the appeal of adding any more of them into my side.

Guys like Reuben Garrick are a good hold. Lehi Hopoate is a good POD who averaged 70 when at fullback. But there’s not many others I’d touch or hold.

St. George-Illawarra Dragons (Raiders, Bulldogs, Raiders)

The Dragons’ draw is a bit of a rollercoaster and playing the Raiders twice in this period is a bit of a nightmare. They do not have a ton of SuperCoach relevant players but consider this a bit of an excuse to continue to avoid stacking them up.

The only exceptions may be Val Holmes who usually plays like a man with a point to prove post Origin, and Toby Couchman who I love as a POD and replacement for the injured Haumole. He’s averaging 66 when you remove his injury impacted game and his dual is great.

South Sydney Rabbitohs 

Aside from Keaon Koloamatangi, I just don’t own Rabbits. It’s not their year. They do play with a lot of steel but there won’t be many/any I’m bringing in at any point. The draw is much better from Round 23 – 25 but they’ve a bye in 26.

Dolphins (2x byes, Knights, Sharks, Wahs)

Arguably the most controversial on this list because the way that they’re playing it feels like they could genuinely smash anyone at any time, but with two byes in the next seven rounds the Dolphins boys may not be on deck to help you as much as you’d like them to be.

Herbie is a keeper and a hard guy to go against, but there’s others I would avoid or sell once they peak. 

In Summary

Finding any advantage you can in the run home can help set you up for a Finals charge. But remember that as we get towards Finals, the players you buy or sell now may be very likely to stay with you until the end of the season.

We’ll explore the H2H Finals specifically in more detail next week, but if you have a peak ahead at the schedules it can also help reinforce the right moves for you to make now to help you win your league.