NRL Supercoach 2026: North Queensland Cowboys squad analysis

The North Queensland Cowboys come into the 2026 season under pressure.

Coach Todd Payten is already facing critics, and the spotlight is firmly on the men from Townsville with their season opener in Las Vegas.

I have my concerns about their roster, with an ageing pack, a few injury concerns before a ball is kicked and uncertainty over the spine.

From an NRL Supercoach lens, this is somewhat offset by arguably the best draw to start the season.

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While I have concerns about their win-loss record this year, I know they have attacking potency.

In Supercoach, attacking potency is essentially all we care about.

If you’re a believer that they’ll start strong, there’s serious opportunity to get a jump start on Supercoach rivals.

Let’s take a look at their NRL Supercoach prospects for the 2026 season.

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Predicted Round 1 starting team

1. Scott Drinkwater

2. Murray Taulagi

3. Zac Laybutt

4. Jaxon Purdue

5. Braidon Burns

6. Jake Clifford

7. Tom Dearden

8. Jason Taumalolo

9. Reed Mahoney

10. Coen Hess

11. Heilum Luki

12. Sam McIntyre

13. Reuben Cotter

14. Matt Lodge

15. Harrison Edwards

16. John Bateman

17. Kai O’Donnell

Analysis: The big call will be around Jaxon Purdue who could start at centre or five-eighth.

At this stage it’s almost a flip of the coin, after being named to start in the trials at centre with Jake Clifford in the halves alongside Tom Dearden.

The alternative would be Purdue in the halves, with Tom Chester at centre.

Chester may not be available in round 1 which may force Payten’s hand.

Braidon Burns faces competition from the likes of Viliame Vailea, Jaxson Paulo and Robert Derby for the final backline spot, pending again the availability of Chester.

With Jeremiah Nanai to miss the start of the season, Heilum Luki will likely start on return from injury, alongside either Sam McIntyre or John Bateman.

Griffin Neame will likely miss the beginning of the season through injury, but is an outside chance to feature.

This will see Coen Hess start at prop, and recruit Matt Lodge join the bench, while Thomas Mikaele will push for a spot one the pine.

Reed Mahoney takes over from Reece Robson at the starting hooker, while Penrith recruit Soni Luke is likely to feature on the six man bench.

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Fixtures

Round 1: Knights (Vegas)

Round 2: Tigers (A)

Round 3: Titans (H)

Round 4: Storm (H)

Round 5: Dragons (A)

Byes: (Major bye rounds are 12, 15, 18)

Round 15, 18, 25

Verdict: The Cowboys draw is in my opinion the best in the competition to start the season.

They face four of five teams from outside the top eight last season, and a Storm outfit in Townsville with a few questions marks leading into the year.

Every game has the potential for them to score 30+ points, and while they could be high scoring affairs, defence isn’t really a concern in Supercoach land.

It’s near enough as good as it gets to kick-off the campaign.

Start

Despite the strong draw, I don’t have any locked Supercoach starters for round 1 unless Tom Chester gets the nod at centre in which case he’d be into my team.

But there are plenty of players to consider.

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Consider

Scott Drinkwater I $793,400 I FLB

In terms of starting value, Drinky is one of the big losers of the new system.

He’s priced at $793k on an 81.1 average, under the NRL stats he should be $747k on a 76.4 average.

I’m not interested for this reason, and I’m not overly high on the Cowboys.

My other concern is that he and Clifford shared kicking duties at stages last season.

However, if you think the Cowboys start strong he has the draw to suggest he could begin in style.

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Jaxon Purdue I $557,400 I 5/8-CTW

Purdue is another who had my interest, but more so at five-eighth than centre.

Then the new stats came in, which if picked at centre will benefit him significantly.

As a result of the change, I’m not sure whether he’s better suited at centre or five-eighth (probably in the halves), but what I do know is that it’s now less of an issue where he plays.

Dual position is a tick, availability in a weak five-eighth position is a tick, draw is a tick.

Stats suggest he’s risky to start, but some young guns just have an aura to them. This kid can play.

I won’t begrudge anyone keen on Purdue.

Reed Mahoney I $418,100 I HOK

Mahoney wasn’t on my radar, until the stat change came in.

With those with big tackle counts benefitting, Mahoney looks to be starting undervalued.

While not huge, he averaged 42.8 points per game last season under Fox stats, which was 45.8 under NRL stats. Based on that, he’s $30k under-priced.

Further, he was demoted to the bench late last year in favour of Bailey Hayward, meaning he averaged just 61 minutes per game.

The six man bench probably doesn’t help because Soni Luke will linger and threaten his minutes, but if 80 minutes looks likely there’s a genuine case to start the former Dog.

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Heilum Luki I $404,100 I 2RF

We all have our players that suck us in no matter the red flags, Heilum Luki is that to me.

It took the back-rower five minutes of their first trial to suck me back in.

In Luki’s defence, the only red flag is his durability.

I genuinely believe if he stays fit until mid-season he plays Origin this year, he’s that good.

Supercoach-wise, he’s discounted off the back of yet another injury riddled season.

After missing all of last season, Luki averaged 52 points per game in 59 minutes in 2024 with a solid 39 in base.

In a perfect world they’d ease him back, but with Jeremiah Nanai out for the opening stages of the season he should see decent game time.

While awkwardly priced, I’m interested.

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Cheapies

Tom Chester I $216,800 I CTW-FLB

Chester looked the front-runner to start at centre, but the injury-riddled rookie suffered a pre-season setback that his him in doubt for round 1.

The beauty to Supercoaches is that the Cowboys open the season in Vegas, so we’ll know whether or not he’s fit (and named) immediately.

If he’s named to start, pick him, if he isn’t, don’t.

James Walsh I $201,400 I 2RF-CTW

Unfortunately, James Walsh picked up a season-ending ACL injury during the pre-season.

Without breaking out into another full scale article on strategy, the six man bench introduction makes auto-emergency players on the fringe of starting squads very risky.

As such, if you want a good ole fashioned ‘nuff’ to start the season, you want someone who has no chance of featuring on that six man bench.

Which unfortunately leads to injured players, and Walsh is that man.

He is dual position, bottom dollar and won’t feature this year oddly making him extremely relevant to round 1 teams.