Niko’s AFL Supercoach Watchlist: Buy, Hold, Sell round 7

It seems crazy as I write this but we’re a quarter of the way through the season!

2,221 for me in round 6 see’s me go up in rank slightly inside the top 6k, whilst also holding onto Dayne Zorko.

Now that I’ve used my fourth boost (I know), I need to be careful and keep my last one in case I get another premium injury to keep my upgrade cadence.

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Buy

Angus Anderson ($113,500 Collingwood MID, B/E -75)

He’s showing plenty the mature ager. Hard at the ball, tackles, and only needs to clean up his ball use to score great. Number one trade in target this week, comfortably.

Elijah Tsatas ($223,400 Essendon MID, B/E -49)

I can’t do it personally, I was burnt last year, but if you’ve avoided some of the carnage and have boosts, he could be a good gamble. 

Jordan Clark ($524,000 Fremantle DEF, B/E 61)

Coming off a big 146 in the derby, he looks primed to score big again against the Blues.

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Jason Horne-Francis ($481,600 Port Adelaide MID/FWD, B/E 81)

Dylan is going to hate me, but I think Horny is a good trade in. CBAs are increasing, TOG is good, he’s kicking goals and most importantly looks fully fit. Be wary of the round 12 bye though, especially for Rachele owners.

Luke Parker ($556,700 North Melbourne DEF/MID, B/E 84)

Only two scores under 120 this year and looks like a clear top 3 defender as it stands. GWS is a tricky fixture away, but the price is fair.

Justin McInerney ($484,000 Sydney MID/FWD, B/E 96)

He’s not necessarily underpriced, or has a great breakeven, but I need a forward and more round 15 bye players. He fits the bill for that and seems to be benefiting from the more transition AFL game, plus Heeney is out which may bring a small boost in scoring.

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Hold

Marcus Bontempelli ($648,900 Western Bulldogs MID, B/E 238)

Nearly 7,000 trade outs at the time of writing… don’t do it.

Christian Petracca ($571,100 Gold Coast FWD, B/E 150)

Over 9,000 trades ins with a 150 breakeven is wild. Even wilder is that he’s close to his round 12 bye. Just hold off until round 13 now and upgrade around him.

Kysaiah Pickett ($541,600 Melbourne MID/FWD, B/E 122)

I don’t mind the breakeven as he has Richmond this week, and it’s an undermanned Richmond. Easily top 3 forward this year but double check your R16 bye players first.

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Lachie Whitfield ($555,500 GWS Giants DEF, B/E 115)

I initially thought he was a great target this week, but North have been surprisingly good at limiting the opponent designated kickers off half back. Can’t deny the upcoming fixture run in general though and he has the best bye.

Bailey Smith ($678,100 Geelong MID, B/E 103)

I know he looks unreal, but I’d avoid bringing someone in above $650k. Look for some value in upgrade season.

Zach Merrett ($586,000 Essendon MID, B/E 73)

He’s been very good, but his role is all over the place, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Perryman followed him around the ground.

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Jagga Smith ($298,700 Carlton MID, B/E 62)

Unless he’s not on the plane to Perth, I’m leaning to holding. He’s a ball magnet who is not being given the best opportunity to do just that. If that changes, as it should, there’s still plenty of money to be made off him.

Tanner Bruhn ($384,000 Geelong MID, B/E 59)

A big drop off in CBAs thanks to Mullin tagging and I don’t see that changing with Butters as the next victim. Worpel back in the team is also worrying for his scoring potential. Low enough breakeven to hold him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this is close to this peak price and we’re selling next week anyway.

Lachie Jaques ($250,900 Western Bulldogs DEF, B/E 49)

I’m giving him a mulligan returning from injury and an extra week to bounce back to his 70+ scoring.

Mattaes Phillipou ($244,700 St Kilda MID/FWD, B/E 37)

His TOG and DE are poor right now, and given he can’t score over 70, he can’t be on your field, even against West Coast. For me, after remembering a month where he went at a 94.5 average in 2024, I want to hold him as he hasn’t made enough money yet.

Patrick Retschko ($119,900 Richmond MID, B/E -24)

Zero reason to go early, unless you’ve trapped yourself in by going Angry Anderson early.

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Sell

Sam Darcy ($438,500 Western Bulldogs FWD, B/E 150)

Sadly, out for the season with another knee injury. The Dogs have gone from Premiership candidates to the walking wounded in a matter of weeks.

Jai Serong ($313,300 Sydney DEF/MID, B/E 64)

Caution, when I say things like this it feels like they always backfire… His 120 was a one-off and that drops off his scoring cycle this week. Might as well sell high.

Samuel Grlj ($297,100 Richmond DEF/MID, B/E 53)

It feels like he could get more opportunity around the ball with Taranto out this week, but also Richmond could just continue getting smashed every week. His DE was at 88% from 16 touches, but only at 206m gained and a 66SC score.  Less pie, sideways possessions, I’m just not sure where the scoring improvement is coming from.

My Current Plans

OUT:     Jai Serong & Samuel Grlj

IN:           Angus Anderson & Justin McInerney