Niko’s AFL Supercoach Watchlist: Buy, Hold, Sell round 8

2,213 for me in round 7 which see’s me slide out to overall rank 7,271.

LJ as captain, Wang and Lindsay my shining lights but plenty of dimmer ones with the likes of Callaghan, McAndrew, Holmes, McInerney and McKercher all disappointing.

For my team I’ll be prioritising a big dog midfielder this week, despite the obvious knee troubles he’s got.

The race to full premium is well and truly on now, time to strap in for the ride.

Become a member of the SC Playbook community by subscribing for less than $2 per week! Gain access to additional premium articles on site every week, our Discord community, prize money and plenty more. Check it out here.

Buy

Patrick Retschko ($119,900 Richmond MID, B/E -84)

74 and 82 in his first matches at AFL level makes him a must buy on the bubble this week.  There’s zero reason not to, and they play West Coast this week which should mean more of the supercoach pie to go around.

Jason Horne-Francis ($495,500 Port Adelaide MID/FWD, B/E 65)

I still think he’s good buying, provided your round 12 bye is intact.  CBAs are rising and he’s looking to be moving much better suggesting his pre-season injury struggles are well behind him.

Kysaiah Pickett ($544,900 Melbourne MID/FWD, B/E 89)

Kozi is on fire after a slow start to the season.  I am wary of a potential JJ tag this week, but he’s going well enough to trade in anyway.  

Embed from Getty Images

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ($568,300 St Kilda DEF/MID, B/E 121)

Be mindful of your round 16 bye, but if you don’t own you need to prioritise the trade in.

Marcus Bontempelli ($603,500 Western Bulldogs MID, B/E 160)

I fully realise his breakeven is too high to recommend people trade him in, but it’s the Bont, and I’m happy to absorb a $10-$20k price drop to have him.  The plan when I didn’t start him was to buy him $100k cheaper, that time has come.

Embed from Getty Images

Hold

Liam Reidy ($119,900 Carlton RUC/FWD, B/E -67)

Having had a previous career high supercoach score of 53 he comes out of nowhere to drop a 108 on our heads.  I have zero interest in buying him as Pittonet will be back this week, or next.

Brent Daniels ($300,300 GWS Giants FWD, B/E -16)

I can’t trust his body and the price is too sticky.  $150k is hard to make from this starting price point.  It all needs to go right, and we saw it backfire with Lukosius this season.

Tom Blamires ($281,600 North Melbourne DEF/MID, B/E 28)

If you didn’t move him last week after getting dropped, I’d be inclined to hold him as a loop across two lines if not selected again, provided you’ve got adequate cover.

Embed from Getty Images

Samuel Grlj ($306,700 Richmond DEF/MID, B/E 43)

I ended up updating my trade and held him last week.  Holding for one more against the Eagles.

Jagga Smith ($302,000 Carlton MID, B/E 47)

I was ready to boot him after his CBA numbers took a hit, but he still scored ok, and is very likely to get FWD status.

Lachie Jaques ($259,800 Western Bulldogs DEF, B/E 52)

If he can score relatively well again his breakeven will reset.  Holding for now.

Embed from Getty Images

Lachlan McAndrew ($363,000 Adelaide RUC, B/E 73)

The timing is a little off as there’s no obvious ruck upgrade, unless you don’t own Luke Jackson.  We could see a spike against Richmond the following week and by this time the likes of Gawn and Xerri would have also dropped money and be ready to purchase.

Josh Dunkley ($462,500 Brisbane MID, B/E 89)

He’s cheap and coming off a delayed pre-season with shoulder surgery, but I think we still wait and see with him.  Less contested play is not good for his overall scoring and he’s being doing negating jobs.  I only have three spots to fill in the midfield, and I easily want Bont and McCluggage ahead of him.  

Tanner Bruhn ($398,900 Geelong MID, B/E 90)

If he can drop another 90 his breakeven will reset and he will start making money again.  Getting some cheap ball off half back helps.

Embed from Getty Images

Archie Roberts ($580,800 Essendon DEF, B/E 101)

The ship has well and truly left the dock here.  No way I’m paying this money for him, especially with the Premiers up next.

Hugh McCluggage ($498,300 Brisbane MID, B/E 163)

The signs were there in Q1 against the Crows, but he finished poorly and only 66% TOG.  I think we can comfortably wait another week or two with him.

Tristan Xerri ($686,600 North Melbourne RUC, B/E 192)

He’s back and drops a 150 straight away meaning he won’t drop much coin.  At this breakeven there’s no way I’m buying, despite the very positive matchup.

Embed from Getty Images

Sell

Colby McKercher ($434,900 North Melbourne DEF, B/E 117)

What an absolute cluster f.  Has the ability to average 110+ as a running half back but not being utilised there.  I have no doubt this will change and bite me again, but perhaps one foot is already back home in Tassie.  I can’t have another week where my “premo” is on 20 at half time.

Leonardo Lombard ($210,100 Gold Coast FWD, B/E 32)

Just not getting it done for us and can be traded, but there’s also little point in selling.  I’m hoping he gets dropped so I can loop my forward rookies or he finally spikes for us to generate some cash.

Jacob Farrow ($307,200 Essendon DEF/MID, B/E 55)

I’m not sure the defensive chip chip strategy will stay for much longer after being found out on the big stage of Anzac Day against the Pies.  The Premiers are next who are a difficult matchup for defenders.  I feel he’s at a price where I’m happy to sell as he should be close enough to his peak price (famous last words).

Embed from Getty Images

My Current Plans

OUT: Colby McKercher + Jacob Farrow

IN: Marcus Bontempelli + Patrick Retschko