AFL Supercoach 2026: Bye Round Bible – What the Top 10% Are Actually Doing

Nine rounds in and the bye structure is starting to crystallise. If you haven’t mapped out rounds 12 through 16 yet, this article is your wake-up call.

Yes, green dots matter. But there is no point fielding a full side of rookies scoring 60s. A balanced spread of premiums across your squad is what separates the coaches who cruise through the byes from the ones who post a horror score. Get caught with too many on the same bye and you are scoring with a skeleton crew when it counts.

We spoke about this on the podcast last week (check it out if you haven’t already), but I wanted to update the numbers to track trends and go into more detail on what they actually mean for your squad.

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How to Read This Data

Every number in these tables is the expected number of top 10% players on bye in that position that round, based on current ownership. All teams are different, but this is what the expected number of bye players looks like. If you’re tracking against the top 10%, this tells you exactly where the exposure sits.

The number in brackets on each total row shows how that figure changed since I pulled the data for the podcast last week. A positive number means more top 10% exposure on that bye, a negative means less.

• Only players priced at $400k or above are included. This is a premium analysis.
• For DPP players, I only include them in their lower-scoring position. A MID/FWD shows up in the forward line only, not the mids.

Two examples to make it concrete:

• Round 14 Rucks: The number is 0.7. That is entirely Luke Jackson at 69.2% ownership. Roughly 7 in 10 top 10% coaches are sitting their ruck that week.
• Round 13 Defenders: The number is 0.6, driven by Lachie Whitfield (39.6%) and Lachie Ash (18.2%) plus a small other bucket. The average top 10% squad has just over half a defender sitting that week.

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Round 12

Byes: Adelaide Crows, Gold Coast Suns, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide

Defenders	Midfielders	Rucks	Forwards	Total
Worrell 17.3%	Butters 97.1%	Xerri 28.6%	Sheezel 99.7%
McKercher 10.7%	Davies-Uniacke 17.9%	Other 0.9%	Petracca 77.9%
Parker 8.6%	Anderson 6.2%		Horne-Francis 19.9%
Milera 3.3%	Dawson 3.3%		Rachele 17.0%
Other 1.0%	Berry 1.1%		Rankine 9.7%
	Other 0.3%		Miller 4.0%
Total: 0.4 (+0.1)	Total: 1.3 (0.0)	Total: 0.3 (+0.2)	Total: 2.3 (+0.2)	4.2 (+0.5)

You’re probably sick to death of hearing about Round 12, but it is for good reason. It is the week where you will have the fewest premiums in your squad overall (as you should be upgrading throughout the byes), so having 5 premiums on bye this week hits harder than 5 premiums on bye in Round 16. By Round 16 you will have more other premiums to cover them.

The concentration in a single position is what really stands out. Look at those forward names. Many teams will have 3 premiums on bye in that line alone, plus Brayden Cook who has been scoring well as a cheapie. I do not want a line of 3 premiums sitting together, which is why I have been fading Jason Horne-Francis and the Adelaide players.

Since last week, the big movers are Tristan Xerri (outstanding matchup last week, up from 7.7% to 28.6%), Horne-Francis (up from 8.9% to 19.9%) and Christian Petracca (up from 60.1% to 77.9%). All three have jumped significantly. My advice is simple: do not trade in any Round 12 players between now and then, unless your squad looks considerably different to the top 10%.

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Round 13

Byes: GWS Giants, Richmond

Defenders	Midfielders	Rucks	Forwards	Total
Whitfield 39.6%	Oliver 16.5%		Ross 1.1%
Ash 18.2%	Callaghan 15.6%		Greene 0.5%
Short 2.7%	Other 0.4%
Total: 0.6 (+0.1)	Total: 0.3 (+0.1)	Total: 0.0 (0.0)	Total: 0.0 (0.0)	0.9 (+0.3)

Round 13 is the lightest bye week of the lot. Two teams on the bye, and with one of them being Richmond, the low numbers are no surprise.

Most teams should be targeting 2 players through this round, and for me they are no-brainers. Lachie Whitfield has been outstanding since Lachie Ash shifted into more of a mid role, freeing him up to do damage. He is the clear first cab off the rank. Finn Callaghan is at a juicy price after some tough matchups, and with a great run coming, he is a compelling buy. I am 50/50 on bringing him in this week, but if he does not come in now, he is coming in next week regardless.

What surprises me is how little ownership has shifted here since last week. Coaches are sleeping on this round. The opportunity to gain ground on the field is real, and not enough people are acting on it.

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Round 14

Byes: Carlton, Collingwood, Fremantle, Hawthorn

Defenders	Midfielders	Rucks	Forwards	Total
Houston 42.1%	Daicos 84.9%	Jackson 69.2%	Bolton 16.0%
Clark 34.1%	Walsh 29.5%		Reid 11.9%
Daicos 27.2%	Serong 29.4%		Macdonald 5.5%
Sicily 2.7%	Young 5.0%		Treacy 1.6%
Other 2.2%	Brayshaw 3.3%		Other 1.1%
	Newcombe 1.8%
	Other 0.1%
Total: 1.1 (+0.1)	Total: 1.5 (-0.1)	Total: 0.7 (+0.1)	Total: 0.4 (0.0)	3.7 (+0.1)

Despite four teams on the bye, Round 14 feels manageable. No single line is overwhelmingly loaded.

The exception is if you happen to have Nick Daicos, Sam Walsh and Caleb Serong all in your mids at the same time, but that will not be many squads. Daicos and Luke Jackson are top of their line and their ownership reflects it. But I would struggle to convince you that many others in this round are truly elite. Dan Houston and Shai Bolton are fringe top 6 at best, and both are serious rollercoaster players.

My two specific warnings: do not trade Jackson in before he faces Hawthorn this week, and do not trade Daicos in with his high breakeven before back-to-back matchups against Geelong and Sydney. Tag alert on that second one.

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Round 15

Byes: Brisbane Lions, Essendon, Sydney Swans, West Coast Eagles

Defenders	Midfielders	Rucks	Forwards	Total
Roberts 31.4%	Merrett 24.7%	Grundy 45.0%	Bailey 11.6%
McCarthy 4.1%	Neale 12.0%		McInerney 10.3%
Zorko 1.9%	Heeney 10.1%		Warner 2.9%
Blakey 1.2%	McCluggage 7.4%		Kelly 2.5%
Other 0.9%	Parish 3.7%		Other 0.2%
	Ashcroft 3.1%
	Dunkley 1.0%
	Other 0.2%
Total: 0.4 (0.0)	Total: 0.6 (0.0)	Total: 0.5 (+0.1)	Total: 0.3 (+0.1)	1.7 (+0.1)

Alongside Round 13, this is the other opportunity round. Have a look at your team. Many of you will have 0 or 1 players on bye this week.

Archie Roberts was a great pick a few weeks ago when he was cheap. I still like him but my punt this week is Dayne Zorko. Yes, there is always an old man injury risk, but he is crazy value thanks to that 36 dragging down his rolling average. His breakeven probably makes him a next week pick rather than this week though.

I am definitely buying Hugh McCluggage this week. I want a Round 15 mid bye player and he ticks every box. Averaged 117 last year (elite), currently priced at just 90, and his TOG increased last week. I can see him returning to 105+ easily.

Zac Bailey has been outstanding other than that random 52 against Melbourne. In a contract year, he is a sneaky forward play. I went with Justin McInerney as my Round 15 forward bye player. Bit of a boring pick, but I will take boring in the forward line.

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Round 16

Byes: Geelong Cats, Melbourne, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs

Defenders	Midfielders	Rucks	Forwards	Total
Sinclair 76.4%	Bontempelli 75.4%	Gawn 59.2%	Flanders 82.3%
Wanganeen-Milera 48.7%	Holmes 44.1%	English 0.6%	Pickett 57.4%
Stewart 9.2%	Bailey Smith 16.5%		Cameron 0.7%
Dale 6.2%	Richards 9.6%		Sanders 0.5%
Wilkie 2.7%	Steele 8.6%		Other 0.3%
Other 0.5%	Other 0.1%
Total: 1.4 (+0.2)	Total: 1.5 (+0.1)	Total: 0.6 (-0.1)	Total: 1.4 (+0.0)	5.0 (+0.3)

Yes, the number looks scary. But Round 16 is when you have your best team. The key is still avoiding 3 premiums stacked in one line (although if you have Marcus Bontempelli, Max Holmes and Bailey Smith together, I am genuinely jealous).

My rule of thumb: 4 to 6 players on bye in Round 16 is a safe place to be. If you are sitting at 7 or more, that is a problem. If you are under 4, it is time to load up.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is a great pickup with the Saints run coming. He is unlikely to get tagged in the next two weeks, and his price reflects the risk rather than the upside. Ownership up from 36.0% to 48.7% since last week. Just know he is a risk most weeks.

Bontempelli’s price is amazing right now. If you can get him at current price, do it. Just keep an eye on the injury situation, there are hints of a rest coming.

Kysaiah Pickett has also jumped from 47.4% to 57.4% since last week, and he put up a great score against Sydney despite the Jordan tag. He is my other 50/50 trade target this week. Not value at his price, but he is a genuine captain option against the hopeless Eagles.

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My Plan

I have been monitoring this data for a while now. Sitting around 40k overall rank, I am hoping this kind of planning gives my team the boost it so desperately needs.

Right now I am sitting on two 50/50 trade decisions this week:

• McCluggage and Pickett: lands me at a 4:1:4:2:5 structure across rounds 12 to 16
• McCluggage and Callaghan: lands me at a 4:2:4:2:4 structure

The second option is better value and a cleaner bye structure. But I really want that pop score from Pickett against West Coast. I can still get Callaghan next week, so I am leaning toward taking the risk this week and locking in the value later.

Go and check your team now. Map out your structure across all five rounds before it is too late. The coaches who plan this early are the ones who come out the other side with their season intact.