By Jay Schubert | Insta @supercoachdata | X @jay85s
The countdown is on; Origin is nearly here, and it’s time to look at the players that can make or break the next 2 months of the Supercoach season.
With all the high scores that have occurred this year, I do feel that it is not as imperative to get to 13+ players on the major origin rounds.
Most likely teams with 13+ available players will consist of plodders, players that’ll score 30-40 if / when they play, and once they are in your team, are very hard to get rid of due to being awkwardly priced (2025 Morgan Smithies).
If you can field a team of 11-12 guns/keepers, you are still more likely to outscore a 13+ team. So, with that, who do we hold? Who do we fade? Who do we just stay away from?
Below, we’ll go through each team and identify the Origin candidates to attempt to answer some of these questions.
For clarity, the Major Bye Rounds occur in Round 12, 15, and 18. During each of these rounds, 7 teams will be on the bye.
As only half the teams will be playing, it is only the Top 13 playing players (including reserves) that will count towards our Supercoach scores.
Following each of these rounds (13, 16, and 19) are the Mini Bye Rounds, which are very tricky as 3 teams will be on the bye, but … Supercoach scores are calculated from a full squad, 17 players including the FLEX.
The other rounds, 15 and 17, are standard rounds with only 1 team on the bye.
Who has the bye each week?
Round 12 Bye Teams
Broncos, Sharks, Knights, Eels, Panthers, Roosters, Tigers
Round 13 Bye Teams
Dolphins, Titans, Rabbitohs
Round 14 Bye Team
Warriors
Round 15 Bye Teams
Bulldogs, Sea Eagles, Storm, Knights, Cowboys, Panthers, Dragons
Round 16 Bye Teams
Broncos, Eels, Rabbitohs
Round 17 Bye Team
Sharks
Round 18 Bye Teams
Bulldogs, Raiders, Titans, Storm, Cowboys, Roosters, Warriors
Round 19 Bye Teams
Broncos, Panthers, Dragons
Embed from Getty ImagesBroncos
With Byes in Round 12, 16, and 19, non-origin players will offer good coverage during the major byes, but will leave owners short during the mini byes, only playing 5 of 8 games, there will be better options across the park.
With the omission of Walsh from the origin team, he looms as a short-term Round 13 purchase with a great 3 games of the Dragons, Titans, then an origin-depleted Rabbitohs.
Origin players are likely going to be a sell, only playing 3 games of the 8.
However, if you are holding any players, they’ll surely be a sell in Round 15 as they do have 2 very easy matchups in Rounds 13 and 14.
Origin Impacted Players
G Shibasaski, P Carrigan, E Mam, K Staggs
Embed from Getty ImagesBulldogs
Unfortunately for Bulldogs fans, there haven’t been many Supercoach-relevant players, but with their draw over this time, they will be handy numbers.
Round 12 against a depleted Storm and with other games against the injury-hit Tigers, Eels, and Titans.
Origin players will be barely affected as they only miss 1 more game.
With Preston missing selection, he looms as a great pickup with a great draw ahead.
Origin Impacted Players
S Crichton
Raiders
The Raiders are one of the teams that only miss 1 round during the Origin period, so for non-origin players, they are great targets for coaches.
During their draw, they do have some easier games against the Eels and Dragons, too. Many coaches will lean toward the safe FRF of Tapine.
With a mix of matchups, does Horsburgh become an option? He’ll likely have a larger role with Young off on Origin Duties.
Origin Impacted Players
H Young, E Strange
Embed from Getty ImagesSharks
Aside from Round 12, the Sharks have a fantastic draw on missing Round 17, which is a stand-alone round. In the major bye rounds, they’ll play a depleted Warriors and Broncos and an “easier” matchup against the Dragons in Round 14.
Hynes will be a near must along with their outside backs.
With a surprise selection to the QLD team, Nikora is just not going to be Supercoach relevant at his price. Brailey’s selection does open the door for those wanting to take a flyer on Berrell at Hooker.
Origin Impacted Players
B Brailey, A Fonua-Blake, B Nikora
Embed from Getty ImagesDolphins
Dolphins have the best bye coverage, playing all the major byes, and only missing one of the minor byes.
With no origin impact on the halves, they’ll be the most targeted team by far. Even though they have some harder games, they play the Raiders, Roosters, and Knights in the major origin rounds.
The main targets are Farnworth, Bostock, and Isaako. For the origin players, they’ll likely be sold as they’ll only play 1 game from 4 and it’s against the Cowboys in North Queensland.
Origin Impacted Players
H Tabuai-Fidow, K Finefeuiaki*, S Cobbo, M Plath, T Flegler
Embed from Getty ImagesTitans
Titans have a tough draw, even though they do have good bye coverage, playing 2 of the 3 major and minor byes. With games against the Broncos, Panthers, and Storm, buyer beware for anyone looking to pivot to Campbell and Kini.
Even their origin players will only play half of the games through this period.
Fermor missing from origin duties could be a blessing for coaches wanting a POD in the forwards.
Origin Impacted Players
T Fa’asuamaleaui, J Fifita
Embed from Getty ImagesSea Eagles
Manly non-origin players will only miss Round 15 but play all other games, and they will be a must for the other major origin rounds, playing the Titans in Round 12 and the Eels in Round 18.
Playing Fozball, they can easily post high scores against anyone.
Origin Impacted Players
H Olakau’atu, T Koula
Storm
With the Storm not being the juggernaut of previous years, all their origin players are likely to back up.
Check numbers for Rounds 15 and 18, but the Storm players are going to be essential during the mini byes, with 3 games at home.
The non-origin player of note is Hughes, as a halfback option, especially paired with Hynes from the Sharks, as you’ll have a premium Halfback every week.
With injuries and unexpected origin selections, does Utoikamanu now become a hold or even a target from round 16.
Origin Impacted Players
H Grant, C Munster, T Loiero
Embed from Getty ImagesKnights
Risk v Reward with the Knights, they miss the first 2 major bye rounds but will need their origin players to back up as they need wins on the board.
If injuries happen again, they will again be a middling team. But a huge positive is if they stay fit and healthy, the team is completely different and has the attack to post huge Supercoach scores across the park.
Origin Impacted Players
K Ponga, D Lucas, J Saifiti
Embed from Getty ImagesCowboys
The Cowboys have a great early bye schedule, but will be a hard hold after round 14, with games away in New Zealand and against the Panthers.
However, as per usual, Drinkwater becomes a target at fullback for those flush with trades and wanting to play Fullback/Halfback Roulette.
Cotter being the only one selected for origin, the Cowboys loom as great targets for the next few weeks. Don’t underestimate a stable squad.
Luki & Purdue will be solid holds and possible keepers.
Origin Impacted Players
R Cotter
Embed from Getty ImagesEels
The Eels have some solid non-origin POD’s, Twiddle, Williams, Tuilagi, and Kelly. Expect solid 60-70 points scores each week.
For those needing a NUFF, the Eels are likely going to need to play some rookies over this time. But when their injured and origin players come back, they’ll disappear again.
Origin Impacted Players
M Moses
Embed from Getty ImagesPanthers
Panthers are likely to be solid again, even with plenty or origin players out, their systems still hold strong under Ivan Cleary.
Considering their origin players only play a maximum of 4 games and have a high chance of rest, they will likely be sells.
Origin Impacted Players
N Cleary, B To’o, I Yeo, C McLean
Embed from Getty ImagesDragons
Even though the Dragons have been struggling to say the least, they do have a good draw through the bye period.
Non-origin players to target are their forwards, as they just get through the work: Cook, Stewart, The Couchmans, Leilua.
With no Dragons selected for origin, could it finally be the time that we see better performances?
Embed from Getty ImagesRabbitohs
Souths are going to be split down the middle during these rounds. Non-origin players have a great schedule and should be targets in the major bye rounds.
However, any origin players are likely to be sells, only playing a maximum of 3 games from 8.
Players to keep an eye on are Johnston, Walker, Aitken, and Siegwalt.
An injured Latrell is still going to be a sell, playing through pain with the risk of getting rested at any moment.
Kolomatangi’s omission could be a blessing for those wishing to bolster their forward stocks with a POD.
Origin Impacted Players
Murray
Embed from Getty ImagesRoosters
Through the middle of the bye period, the non-origin roosters will have time to shine: Savala, Wong, Foketi, and Ramsey.
The Roosters are the most impacted by Origin selections with 6 players selected.
As they only miss 1 more game than their teammates, it’ll be worth holding key players like Tedesco, Walker, and Toia.
Origin Impacted Players
R Toia, R Robson, L Collins, S Walker, J Tedesco, V Radley
Warriors
Once again the Warriors offer great bye coverage as one bye is a stand-alone in round 14, couple that with games against the Dragons and Cowboys, they’ll be highly targeted.
Khan-Pereira, Fisher-Harris, and Halasima will be popular buys.
With his origin omission, Ford now surges as one of the buys of the origin period. His form is fantastic with a good draw. Commiserations for those who sold early.
Origin Impacted Players
M Barnett, K Capewell
Embed from Getty ImagesTigers
Even though the Tigers are missing key players through injury, they still offer great bye coverage.
After Round 12 they do not miss a game until Round 23, so any players you pick up through here could easily be keepers for the season.
With games against the Bulldogs, Titans, and Dragons, high upside players like Pearce-Paul are going to be in high demand.
Another team with no Origin representation, from Round 13, Terrell May will pose as another option up front.
As always, this will be all about timing, good luck for the weeks ahead!
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.