Supercoach World Cup Final Word | Round 5 trades, skippers and strategy

I’m writing this during the final game of the round, so there’s no rank to hand you yet.

I’m on 177 for the round with Munoz still to come, so hopefully a few more points in the tank. (Update, 239th overall)

Can’t complain about the trade-ins: Wirtz and Messi both did exactly what I brought them in for. Pulisic and Bellingham are the other side of the coin, neither got me the returns I was after.

Getting this out now because we’ve got important fixtures early on Sunday, and you’ll want your squad sorted before the first ball. Half the teams are out, so I’ve got a heap of trades to make. Here’s the plan.

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Fixtures

The country limit lifts to three per country this round too, so stacking a strong nation is back in play. Keep that in your back pocket for France.

Only eight games this round, so let’s run through them.

Sunday

Canada vs Morocco Predicted goals: Canada 0.95, Morocco 1.65. Clean sheet odds: Canada 18%, Morocco 40%.

• Confident backing Morocco here, and I’m after two or three of their options.
• Hakimi: absolute lock. Starts on field for me, no loop.
• Saibari: a confident trade in. Three goals in the group stage and playing up top, which is gold when we can select him as a mid.
• Brahim Diaz: the speculative one. Two assists in the tournament off the right wing, but he hasn’t looked strong the last two fixtures and was barely involved against the Netherlands. A punt, not a lock.
• Bounou: your keeper to loop with if you want one, on those strong clean sheet odds.
• Alphonso Davies: first minutes back from injury, up on the wing. Not sure you can pull the trigger just yet, but an exciting one to watch.

Paraguay vs France Predicted goals: Paraguay 0.51, France 2.63. Clean sheet odds: Paraguay 5%, France 61%.

• The fixture of the round, the best in the competition for both attack and defence. Load up.
• Mbappe and Olise: absolute locks, no debate.
• You’ll want a third France pick, and the question is who:
  • Dembele: the ideal third. Who doesn’t want a Ballon d’Or winner coming off 23, 30 and 12 the last three weeks? The only catch is whether you can squeeze him into an already stacked forward line.
  • Cherki: an instant pick the moment he starts, but that looks unlikely.
  • Saliba: the safest defensive route. Digne and Hernandez keep swapping at left back, and Saliba had his rest in the third group game.
  • Maignan: an option, but with keeper looping in play I’d rather bank that clean sheet in the defender line, where looping is harder.

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Monday

Brazil vs Norway Predicted goals: Brazil 1.93, Norway 1.23. Clean sheet odds: Brazil 31%, Norway 15%.

• Vini: still a very strong option. Desperately unlucky last round, forcing an incredible save that kept him off the scoresheet.
• Haaland: you never bet against him. But with this many forward options around, I’d take someone with an easier fixture.
• Gabriel and Bruno G: both come off an assist and both stack up as solid picks.

Mexico vs England Predicted goals: Mexico 1.21, England 1.33. Clean sheet odds: Mexico 27%, England 30%.

• The odds call this a coin flip, and it’s not one I’m targeting.
• Mexico have lost just two of 89 competitive games at the Azteca, so don’t be shocked if they cause the upset.
• Kane: always a solid shout, and it’s shaping as another Kane vs Vini call for me this week. Beyond that, I’m not chasing anyone in this one.

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Tuesday

Portugal vs Spain Predicted goals: Portugal 1.20, Spain 1.83. Clean sheet odds: Portugal 16%, Spain 32%.

• Oyarzabal: has gone 4, 28, 0, 23. Which one shows up? Solid as always, but like Kane he struggles to force his way into my top three.
• Yamal: a lock as a midfielder, but same problem as Oyarzabal: too many forward options ahead of him.
• Cucurella: starts for me. Four clean sheets from four for Spain, so it’s hard to look past their defensive picks, and I’m not leaning on clean sheet points alone with him.
• Olmo: more involved going forward than Pedri, but a start risk. Same risk with Pedro Porro, though he flashed his attacking upside last round. Happy with either if they get the nod.

USA vs Belgium Predicted goals: USA 1.50, Belgium 1.64. Clean sheet odds: USA 20%, Belgium 23%.

• Like Mexico vs England, this shapes as a tight one, but with more attacking upside on both sides.
• KDB and Pulisic: talismanic for their sides, but both came off poorer games last round.
• Lukaku: a minutes risk, and I really wish Trossard was classified as a mid.
• Tielemans: outperforming his xG, but he took four shots last round, which is promising.
• Dest: the interesting one. Playing right wing for the USA but you can select him as a defender. He doesn’t rack up base stats, but the attacking upside is huge.

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Wednesday

Argentina vs Egypt Predicted goals: Argentina 2.16, Egypt 0.62. Clean sheet odds: Argentina 55%, Egypt 9%.

• Messi isn’t going anywhere. The question is who else.
• Emiliano Martinez: disappointing, conceding the last two rounds when we expected clean sheets, but not worth trading out. A great option if your other keeper concedes.
• No midfielder here takes my fancy. The real question is whether a triple up is worth it.
• Medina vs Lisandro Martinez was a coin flip, but I have to go Martinez after that Messi assist. What a pass. Well done to anyone who grabbed him last round.

Switzerland vs Colombia/Ghana Predicted goals and clean sheet odds: to come.

• The opponent is still up in the air as I write this, so I’ll share any top picks on the Discord once it’s settled.
• If Ghana get through, I’m more interested in the Swiss assets, Manzambi in particular.
• If Colombia get through, it shapes as a tight game with little upside.

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Trade Plans

The frame this round is simple: clear out anyone who’s gone home. Netherlands and Germany especially, they’re dead weight now. I’m also moving out of my England assets, with one eye on trimming Belgium and USA if their fixtures don’t excite me.

Dumfries is a straight cull, gone with the Netherlands. In comes Lisandro Martinez, and Argentina against Egypt does the rest.

Wirtz was one of my best trade-ins, but Germany are out, so he goes the same way. Saibari replaces him: three group-stage goals, playing up top, and we can slot him as a mid. Morocco’s numbers against Canada make him an easy in.

Kane is the first England exit. The replacement is Vini or Dembele, and this one’s a genuine coin-flip. Dembele has the softest opponent in the round in Paraguay, Vini is the nailed-on start against Norway. I’ll settle it at lockout.

Bellingham follows Kane out, and the midfield replacement is the tricky one: Bruno G, Cherki or Olmo. Cherki only comes in if he starts, which looks unlikely, and Olmo carries a start risk of his own. Bruno G is the safe body, I just don’t back him 100%, so if I bring him in I’ll bench him and take his score if he does well. Midfield’s a mess this week, so I’m not forcing it.

Samudio is the last out, a straight swap for Bounou as my new loop keeper.

My planned moves

• Dumfries > Lisandro Martinez
• Wirtz > Saibari
• Kane > Vini or Dembele
• Bellingham > Bruno G / Cherki / Olmo
• Samudio > Bounou

Loophole Strategy

The keeper loop: always worth it, no exceptions. That’s the whole reason I’m getting Bounou in early. Morocco play Canada on strong clean sheet odds with an early kickoff, so I bank his score and only bring my main keeper in if they beat it. Free upside.

Formation: midfielders let me down this week, so I’m back to the 3-4-3. Gabriel goes to the bench as my defender so I can get a look at his score, and I’ll bench one of the mids I’m not fully sold on too: Pulisic, KDB or Bruno G. If that bench mid does well, I’ll trade in an eliminated player to take the score.

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Captains

The skipper is Messi. Obvious call, and I’m not fighting it: Argentina against Egypt, and he’s been flying all tournament. Mbappe takes the vice, and that’s the loop. He plays Sunday, so if he goes big I’ll shift the C onto a non-player like I did last round and bank his score as my double. If he’s quiet, I stick with Messi on Wednesday.

For the rank-chasers, the differentials are Vini, Dembele and Hakimi. Dembele is coming off 23, 30 and 12 and gets Paraguay, Vini was desperately unlucky last round and is still a very strong option, and Hakimi is the boldest zag if you want off the France and Argentina crowd.

VC: Mbappe

C: Messi

Other options:

• Vini
• Dembele
• Hakimi