Supercoach World Cup Final Word | The Final trades, skippers and strategy

My big call last round was France to dominate Spain, and I got it badly wrong. Spain went through, and I was left staring at some dud French scores on the field, including a lovely -3 from Digne.

What saved me was the loophole. The 3-4-3 bench did its job: I looped Porro, Simon and Olmo on and all three delivered.

The one that stung was Enzo. I’d traded him over Mac Allister to bring in Olmo, so I didn’t own him at all when he delivered.

Still, 105 points and up to 377 overall. That’s almost back to where I was before I bet against England versus Mexico and ruined my season. Progress.

It was one of those weeks where you needed Messi as captain and Porro to fire. Those high-ceiling picks are the whole difference between a good round and a bad one. Which brings me to the last two games of the tournament.

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Fixtures

Two games left, and they could not be more different. The playoff, France vs England, goes Sunday.

The final, Spain vs Argentina, closes it on Monday. First, the history that shapes my whole last round.

Goals per game, last five World Cups.

World Cup	3rd place playoff	Final
2022	3	6
2018	2	6
2014	3	1
2010	5	1
2006	4	2
Average	3.4	3.2

The third-place playoff is rock solid: never fewer than two goals, sitting at three to five almost every time. The game everyone writes off just keeps delivering.

The final is a coin flip. Either a shootout (6 and 6 in 2018 and 2022) or barely a goal (1, 1, and 2 in the three before). Feast or famine, no middle ground.

Add the rotation, and the playoff gets juicier still. Across those five playoffs, teams changed anywhere from two to six players a side versus their semi XI, usually four or five.

Tired legs rested, fringe men run out, and twice a manager has handed his reserve keeper a farewell start (Germany, 2006 and 2010).

All that rotation is looping gold, but it also means the exact trades are tough to lock until the team sheets drop.

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France vs England

France 2.20 goals, 23% CS | England 1.55 goals, 12% CS

• Mbappe: I back him to play and chase the Golden Boot, exactly like Kane did in the 2018 playoff. France are the best attack on the board, so this is where I load up.
• Olise: the doubt is whether he starts. If Cherki gets the nod in his place, I make that switch without a second thought.
• Dembele and Mateta: happy to double up on the French attack. France have the goals, and I reckon England turn up flat after the heartbreak of losing to Argentina.
• French defence: trading out of it, Digne especially, and into the final.
• Bellingham: going nowhere if he starts. Too much pride in that bloke to coast a World Cup game, dead rubber or not.
• Kane: the slot I want to open up for another forward. Could burn me again, but I’d rather chase the upside elsewhere.
• England defence and keeper: no interest.

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Spain vs Argentina

Spain 1.48 goals, 33% CS | Argentina 1.15 goals, 23% CS

This is the cagey one. Combined 2.6 goals, Spain’s 33% clean sheet is the best number on the board, and the likeliest scores are 1-1, 1-0 and 2-1 Spain. So I’m hunting defenders here, not forwards.

• Spain defence: the question is how many you can fit. Two’s the floor. I’m going three: Simon, Cucurella and Porro, all outstanding picks.
• Olmo: still my preferred Spanish mid, but the ceiling’s capped. 10 with an assist last time out.
• Oyarzabal vs Yamal: Oyarzabal has slightly better goal or assist odds off the penalties, Yamal the higher ceiling that hasn’t gone off yet. In a tight final, Yamal’s the one punt I’d take up top.
• Mac Allister and Enzo: I keep getting this call wrong, so the move is probably to own both and kill the guesswork.
• Messi: going nowhere, obviously.
• Romero vs Lisandro Martinez: I prefer Romero for the set-piece goal threat. Both works if you want to bank on a 0-0 or a scrappy 1-0 to Argentina.

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Trade Plans

Big clear-out round. Non-players out, and I’m loading final defenders and playoff attack.

My planned moves

• Samudio > Maignan
• Bos > Romero
• Digne > Cucurella
• Odegaard > Enzo

Still on the table, pending sheets:

• Olise > Cherki, the moment Cherki is named to start
• Kane > a forward, leaning Yamal for the ceiling or Oyarzabal for the penalties

That clears my non-players and leaves me heavy on Spain defence and the French attack, with a bench built to loop.

The nag: three Spain defenders plus Argentina mids and attackers means I’m backing my own Argentina men to score past my own Spain wall.

Low upside, hedging against myself. So, depending on how the third-place teamsheets land, I’d rather push the extra mids and attackers into France v England than pile into Argentina.

Spare trades stay banked for a late team-sheet shock, especially a non-playing defender to trigger the loop.

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Loophole Strategy

What I learned last round: the 3-4-3 bench loop worked a treat. I stacked Spain and France players who played first, watched their scores, and looped on the ones that delivered. The Spain loop especially paid off. The structure stays exactly as it is.

My plan this round: same again, built around the playoff. It plays Sunday, before Monday’s final, and it’s the high-scoring, heavily rotated game, so it’s perfect loop territory.

Get a keeper, a defender, and a mid from France or England onto the bench, play the 3-4-3, and watch the Sunday scores. Loop on anyone who delivers.

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Captains

The captaincy is a loop off Mbappe. He plays Sunday chasing the Golden Boot, so he’s my VC, with the C parked on a Monday finalist.

If he goes big, I shift the C onto a non-playing eliminated player so his vice score doubles.

For the C itself, the safe play is Messi: the GOAT, in the final, and about to be the most-captained player in the game.

The POD is Yamal or Oyarzabal. Oyarzabal has the penalties, Yamal the ceiling. If you need to make ground, that’s your swing.

VC: Mbappe

C: Messi

Other options:

• Yamal
• Oyarzabal