Random Stats Guy
SC Playbook Contributor. Stats man on About Even
The Random Stats Guy returns analysing the player ownership of the top 1% of NRL Supercoach teams in Round 21
NRLAfter an Origin hiatus, I have returned with the NRL Supercoach player ownership stats heading into the run home.
It is a pivotal time to understand who the top 1% are trading in and out.
For those gunning for Overall supremacy, it is worth following the herd to avoid losing rank on a POD-play gone wrong.
For H2H players, a POD-play could be the difference in progressing your way through the Supercoach finals series.
Big news already with injuries and suspensions ruling out Tom Trbojevic, Hudson Young, Will Warbrick, David Fifita and Cam Murray – as well as a Dolphins bye.
Let’s see how the top 1% of Supercoaches have reacted ahead of Round 21…
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Team | Price | Own % | Own Δ | 5RA | B/E | Proj |
| Sua Fa’alogo | MEL | $755,100 | 75.50% | -2.7% | 86.8 | 119 | 83 |
| Kalyn Ponga | NEW | $763,400 | 73.10% | 4.5% | 84.6 | 62 | 90 |
| Reece Walsh | BRO | $555,000 | 33.30% | 32.2% | 62.8 | 49 | 71 |
| James Tedesco | SYD | $576,800 | 25.70% | 11.4% | 49 | 48 | 50 |
| Tom Trbojevic | MNL | $579,800 | 25.40% | -46.8% | 64.4 | 70 | 49 |
| Dylan Edwards | PTH | $621,600 | 20.50% | 1.2% | 67.2 | 50 | 59 |
| Scott Drinkwater | NQC | $613,400 | 8.70% | 0.7% | 66.6 | 82 | 57 |
| Keano Kini | GCT | $745,000 | 2.20% | 0.5% | 92.8 | 75 | 83 |
| Motu Pasikala | NZL | $201,400 | 1.00% | 0.0% | 0 | 22 | 21 |
| Matthew Dufty | STH | $543,100 | 0.70% | -0.3% | 52.6 | 16 | 63 |
| Isaiah Iongi | PAR | $612,900 | 0.50% | -0.1% | 70.4 | 57 | 61 |
| Hugo Peel | MEL | $201,400 | 0.40% | -0.1% | 23.5 | 19 | 22 |
| Jahream Bula | WST | $358,400 | 0.20% | 0.0% | 34.4 | 44 | 30 |
| Kaeo Weekes | CBR | $436,500 | 0.10% | 0.0% | 49.2 | 46 | 40 |
| William Kennedy | SHA | $518,900 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 57.2 | 9 | 52 |
| Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | DOL | $614,400 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 71.4 | 28 | 0 |
| Connor Tracey | BUL | $479,200 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 64 | 41 | 65 |
| Jye Gray | STH | $512,200 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 58.8 | 43 | 56 |
| Clint Gutherson | STG | $398,500 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 44.8 | 65 | 40 |
| Daine Laurie | CBR | $413,000 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 43.6 | 47 | 33 |
Reece Walsh is the most wanted man in NRL Supercoach after being traded in by 16,000 coaches this week.
With Tom Trbojevic going down last week, over 21,000 owners are looking for a stable, in-form fullback for the run home into H2H finals.
Walsh delivered 106 points against the ladder-leaders Penrith last week, recording the most touches by a fullback in a game in the NRL era (86).
He clearly is confident to lead the Broncos into a late run for the top 8 and has a mouth-watering draw with no byes.
His next 3 opponents are familiar foes for the run home, with his scores against them around this time last year being 161 (vs Cows, R26), 147 (vs Newy, R25), and 155 (vs Phins, Rd 24)
He is not the only option, with some Supercoaches turning to James Tedesco or Kalyn Ponga.
Both come with risks. Teddy has a 5RA of 49 points, whilst Ponga carries a medium-high chance of getting injured.
Choose wisely – it could make or break your season.
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Team | Price | Own % | Own Δ | 5RA | B/E | Proj. |
| Herbie Farnworth | DOL | $711,100 | 99.7% | 0.0% | 72.6 | 119 | 0 |
| Thomas Jenkins | PTH | $772,400 | 82.9% | 2.5% | 94 | 70 | 98 |
| Jamayne Isaako | DOL | $704,900 | 82.2% | 3.2% | 79.4 | 75 | 0 |
| Kayal Iro | SHA | $579,800 | 52.6% | -1.3% | 59.2 | 65 | 61 |
| Greg Marzhew | NEW | $518,700 | 49.3% | -0.1% | 51.8 | 64 | 43 |
| Mark Nawaqanitawase | SYD | $606,500 | 48.9% | 2.2% | 73.6 | 89 | 66 |
| Jacob Kiraz | BUL | $584,300 | 37.4% | 0.4% | 61.2 | 96 | 54 |
| Dayne Jennings | STH | $217,800 | 24.0% | 0.5% | 29 | -8 | 26 |
| Heamasi Makasini | WST | $340,800 | 19.3% | -1.2% | 38.2 | 28 | 38 |
| Tom Chester | NQC | $508,800 | 18.9% | -0.3% | 53.8 | 64 | 61 |
| Jack Bostock | DOL | $578,200 | 17.6% | -5.1% | 66.2 | 56 | 0 |
| Ronaldo Mulitalo | SHA | $554,700 | 12.6% | 0.2% | 56 | 41 | 60 |
| Reuben Garrick | MNL | $573,600 | 10.4% | 0.9% | 71.8 | 33 | 65 |
| Cody Ramsey | SYD | $375,300 | 8.1% | -1.2% | 50.8 | -2 | 51 |
| Jonathan Sua | BUL | $296,300 | 8.0% | -0.3% | 38.6 | 39 | 39 |
| Setu Tu | STG | $478,100 | 7.0% | -0.3% | 51.6 | 74 | 52 |
| Valentine Holmes | STG | $630,800 | 5.7% | -0.3% | 68.8 | 50 | 67 |
| Faaletino Tavana | WST | $240,000 | 5.3% | -0.2% | 27 | 42 | 27 |
| Tolutau Koula | MNL | $684,300 | 5.1% | -0.1% | 77.8 | 90 | 88 |
| Dominic Young | NEW | $507,700 | 4.6% | -0.5% | 51 | 80 | 47 |
Thomas Jenkins ranks 4th for most traded-in players this week with 3,000 Supercoaches bringing him in; however, just 50 of those are ranked in the top 1%.
Whilst he didn’t score a try last Thursday, he still punched out 63 points in the wet. His base and power average is 53 points, and he has only scored sub-50 once in his last 7 games.
The Panthers have a tough draw to come with two teams in the top 4 (Roosters, Warriors), and three others also competing for a spot in the top 8 (Raiders, Storm, Bulldogs).
The most traded-in CTW for the top 1% is Mark Nawaqanitawase, who has been traded in by 70 new owners.
Compared to Jenkins, Marky Mark’s base and power average is just 39 – which means when he doesn’t score, it could break your week.
However, in the 6 games he has scored, he has scored 2 or more tries, which has seen him put up 90+ points.
It is a serious gamble, but it could just pay off.
Despite a Dolphins bye this week, Isaako and Farnworth stocks have stayed stable; whilst Jack Bostock has been the 4th most traded out player.
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Team | Price | Own % | Own Δ | 5RA | B/E | Proj. |
| Te Maire Martin | NZL | $646,500 | 83.2% | -1.4% | 77.4 | 58 | 47 |
| Jayden Campbell | GCT | $615,200 | 56.1% | 4.4% | 68.6 | 44 | 57 |
| Fletcher Sharpe | NEW | $569,400 | 35.3% | -0.5% | 63 | 67 | 56 |
| Cody Walker | STH | $582,500 | 14.1% | -1.0% | 68.6 | 69 | 64 |
| Jaxon Purdue | NQC | $481,500 | 8.9% | -0.7% | 53.4 | 51 | 36 |
| Cameron Munster | MEL | $684,400 | 5.0% | -1.0% | 87.6 | 71 | 83 |
| Tyran Wishart | MEL | $362,000 | 4.8% | 0.5% | 46.4 | -13 | 49 |
| Reece Foley | SYD | $201,400 | 4.3% | -0.1% | 13 | 32 | 19 |
| John Fineanganofo | DOL | $201,400 | 3.3% | 0.1% | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Braydon Trindall | SHA | $537,300 | 2.1% | -0.1% | 55.8 | 72 | 47 |
| Jake Clifford | NQC | $579,800 | 1.4% | 0.1% | 56.6 | 73 | 59 |
| Jonah Pezet | PAR | $334,900 | 1.4% | -0.1% | 39.2 | 30 | 57 |
| Jarome Luai | WST | $495,600 | 1.1% | -0.1% | 64.6 | 75 | 64 |
| Daniel Atkinson | STG | $373,300 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 43.6 | 26 | 44 |
| Kade Reed | STG | $201,400 | 0.6% | -0.1% | 18 | 30 | 20 |
| Ethan Strange | CBR | $447,800 | 0.4% | 0.1% | 40.4 | 56 | 44 |
| Kodi Nikorima | DOL | $445,500 | 0.3% | -0.1% | 45 | 75 | 0 |
| Blaize Talagi | PTH | $513,900 | 0.2% | -0.1% | 55.2 | 57 | 48 |
| Joash Papalii | PAR | $427,900 | 0.2% | -0.1% | 47.6 | 64 | 33 |
| Matt Burton | BUL | $534,900 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 62.6 | 19 | 64 |
| Daly Cherry-Evans | SYD | $397,800 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 43.8 | 39 | 38 |
Jayden Campbell is a possible POD play that goes against the popular Te Maire Martin selection at five-eighth.
56% is a majority ownership, but if you currently own neither, Campbell seems to be the better play ownership and points-wise, particularly with 5 of their last 7 games at home.
Campbell has an average of 55 points in the worst-case scenarios where he has had no try involvements, whilst we saw last week what Te Maire Martin’s scoring looks like without a direct try involvement (48 points).
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Team | Price | Own % | Own Δ | 5RA | B/E | Proj. |
| Nicholas Hynes | SHA | $913,700 | 99.3% | 0.2% | 104 | 44 | 98 |
| Nathan Cleary | PTH | $891,500 | 97.5% | 0.5% | 93.2 | 193 | 95 |
| Adam Doueihi | WST | $594,100 | 3.5% | -1.2% | 50.4 | 111 | 59 |
| Latrell Siegwalt | STH | $539,900 | 3.0% | 0.1% | 73 | 34 | 73 |
| Joey Walsh | MNL | $469,800 | 2.6% | 0.1% | 65.2 | 9 | 65 |
| Sam Walker | SYD | $656,600 | 1.4% | 0.2% | 66.6 | 60 | 72 |
| Liam Sutton | NQC | $371,600 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 62.5 | -6 | 58 |
| Zac Herdegen | NQC | $201,400 | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0 | 22 | 21 |
| Jake Elliott | SYD | $201,400 | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0 | 22 | 21 |
| Jonah Glover | STH | $201,400 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0 | 22 | 21 |
| Lachlan Galvin | BUL | $603,300 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 67 | 91 | 66 |
| Ethan Sanders | CBR | $504,100 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 64 | -16 | 60 |
| Dylan Brown | NEW | $584,200 | 0.1% | -0.1% | 69.2 | 26 | 64 |
| Thomas Dearden | NQC | $762,800 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 87 | 62 | 79 |
| Isaiya Katoa | DOL | $578,700 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 63 | 92 | 0 |
| Brad Schneider | DOL | $379,700 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 46.2 | 51 | 0 |
| Jack Cogger | PTH | $328,100 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 43.4 | 43 | 36 |
| Jamal Fogarty | MNL | $506,700 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 54 | 61 | 56 |
| Jahrome Hughes | MEL | $558,700 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.6 | 83 | 48 |
| Tanah Boyd | NZL | $559,800 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 54 | 94 | 52 |
Nicho Hynes and Nathan Cleary.
That is all.
If you’re looking elsewhere, you’re probably going to fall behind.
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Team | Price | Own % | Own Δ | 5RA | B/E | Proj. |
| Harry Grant | MEL | $592,000 | 92.9% | 0.1% | 60 | 88 | 60 |
| Oliver Pascoe | GCT | $552,100 | 37.6% | 0.8% | 65.8 | -3 | 57 |
| Brandon Smith | STH | $328,500 | 33.5% | -0.1% | 41.8 | 16 | 33 |
| Blayke Brailey | SHA | $587,200 | 13.0% | -0.1% | 57.4 | 70 | 51 |
| Benaiah Ioelu | SYD | $272,800 | 3.9% | 0.1% | 35.8 | 15 | 35 |
| Jeremy Marshall-King | DOL | $504,800 | 2.4% | -0.1% | 54 | 90 | 0 |
| Owen Pattie | CBR | $465,600 | 2.2% | 0.1% | 64.2 | -7 | 66 |
| Reed Mahoney | NQC | $412,400 | 1.2% | -0.3% | 37.6 | 61 | 32 |
| Isaiah Fagalilo | STG | $201,400 | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0 | 22 | 21 |
| Shaun Packer | CBR | $201,400 | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0 | 22 | 21 |
| Zaidas Muagututia | MNL | $201,400 | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0 | 22 | 21 |
| Riley Jones | SHA | $201,400 | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0 | 22 | 18 |
| Phoenix Crossland | NEW | $459,200 | 0.5% | 0.1% | 57.4 | 43 | 64 |
| Bailey Hayward | BUL | $389,000 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 45.4 | 55 | 58 |
| Haele Finau | STG | $201,400 | 0.5% | -0.1% | 0 | 22 | 21 |
| Jake Simpkin | MNL | $481,000 | 0.4% | 0.1% | 59.6 | 26 | 60 |
| Jayden Berrell | SHA | $202,400 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 20 | 33 | 17 |
| Damien Cook | STG | $418,200 | 0.2% | -0.1% | 37.8 | 57 | 38 |
| Wayde Egan | NZL | $496,000 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 57.2 | 66 | 49 |
| Apisai Koroisau | WST | $486,600 | 0.2% | -0.1% | 52.4 | 71 | 56 |
Harry Grant is the most popular hooker option by a landslide; however, there are POD plays to be had around the position.
Blayke Brailey is going through a rough patch at the moment, but he showed at the start of the season that he can score at a better rate than Grant with an 80.4 average in the first 8 rounds.
Sharks are in-form and have a great run home, playing just one current top 8 team (the Bunnies) in their final 7 games PLUS play the bottom three teams in their run (Eels, Titans and Dragons).
Owen Pattie is an option as a back-up hooker for those that have missed the Oliver Pascoe bus.
Still at $465k, he misses Round 21 through suspension, but will return to the starting hooker spot next week, where he has punched out 60+ points in each of his 4 games, playing 55+ minutes.
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Team | Price | Own % | Own Δ | 5RA | B/E | Proj. |
| Terrell May | WST | $735,200 | 99.3% | 0.1% | 80 | 100 | 70 |
| Payne Haas | BRO | $684,100 | 67.5% | 5.4% | 72.6 | 58 | 77 |
| Keaon Koloamatangi | STH | $678,900 | 58.5% | -0.2% | 79.4 | 68 | 74 |
| Myles Martin | CBR | $201,400 | 52.6% | 1.1% | 0 | 22 | 21 |
| Alex Twal | WST | $693,200 | 33.8% | -1.6% | 69.2 | 113 | 74 |
| Joseph Tapine | CBR | $568,100 | 22.7% | -1.2% | 59.6 | 62 | 58 |
| Ethan Roberts | WST | $201,400 | 14.3% | 0.1% | 38.5 | -11 | 28 |
| Taniela Paseka | MNL | $490,200 | 14.0% | -1.4% | 51.6 | 79 | 53 |
| Saxon Pryke | PAR | $284,900 | 6.6% | 0.5% | 39.6 | 29 | 40 |
| Stefano Utoikamanu | MEL | $584,800 | 3.8% | 0.0% | 68.6 | 45 | 63 |
| Simione Laiafi | MNL | $227,000 | 1.0% | 0.2% | 26 | 24 | 24 |
| Thomas Flegler | DOL | $353,600 | 0.9% | 0.0% | 40.2 | 47 | 0 |
| Cody Hopwood | NEW | $307,700 | 0.9% | 0.1% | 38.4 | -6 | 38 |
| Sione Fainu | WST | $424,500 | 0.8% | -0.3% | 49.2 | 58 | 54 |
| Jackson Ford | NZL | $654,200 | 0.7% | -0.5% | 59.6 | 117 | 54 |
| Leo Thompson | BUL | $547,600 | 0.3% | -0.1% | 58.2 | 85 | 58 |
| Thomas Mikaele | NQC | $411,500 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 42 | 52 | 42 |
| Mitchell Barnett | NZL | $539,500 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 58.8 | 50 | 76 |
| Teancum Brown | PAR | $236,800 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 34 | -4 | 34 |
| Elijah Rasmussen | DOL | $201,400 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0 | 22 | 0 |
Payne Haas is the 4th most traded-in player by the top 1% this week, with 100+ Supercoaches bringing him in.
He has only played 4 times since Round 13, but he has still punched out at least 72 points for owners.
$684k is a BARGAIN for the Broncos’ enforcer, particularly when you consider he started the season at $852k.
The suspension of David Fifita and injuries of both Tallis Duncan and Cam Murray will likely see Keaon Koloamatangi spend time covering 2nd row.
He scored 51 and 47 in his two starts at 2RF this season – they are among his 3 lowest scores this season.
If you are a Keaon owner, it might be worth reassessing your options – after the 24hr cut, of course!
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Team | Price | Own % | Own Δ | 5RA | B/E | Proj. |
| Haumole Olakau’atu | MNL | $854,800 | 88.7% | 4.2% | 96.4 | 82 | 92 |
| Ryan Couchman | STG | $636,500 | 75.5% | 1.0% | 74.6 | 71 | 96 |
| Tallis Duncan | STH | $733,600 | 63.0% | -9.5% | 86.4 | 72 | 79 |
| Dylan Lucas | NEW | $831,800 | 61.5% | 4.8% | 95.4 | 87 | 98 |
| Toby Couchman | STG | $683,300 | 60.5% | 3.7% | 75 | 48 | 71 |
| James Walsh | NQC | $201,400 | 42.1% | 2.0% | 0 | 22 | 21 |
| Heilum Luki | NQC | $584,700 | 33.4% | -1.2% | 60 | 67 | 61 |
| David Fifita | STH | $598,100 | 33.2% | -3.8% | 70 | 49 | 61 |
| Xavier Willison | BRO | $578,100 | 31.5% | -0.5% | 66 | 42 | 71 |
| Simi Sasagi | CBR | $600,800 | 29.8% | 14.8% | 60.2 | 79 | 72 |
| Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | DOL | $574,500 | 25.9% | -0.3% | 62.6 | 51 | 0 |
| Zac Hosking | CBR | $657,900 | 24.5% | -0.6% | 74 | 25 | 97 |
| Erin Clark | NZL | $564,900 | 11.1% | -0.3% | 58.4 | 48 | 54 |
| Tony Sukkar | WST | $416,100 | 10.4% | -0.8% | 55.6 | 23 | 53 |
| Isaiah Papali’i | PTH | $624,400 | 9.5% | -0.9% | 66.2 | 93 | 69 |
| Hudson Young | CBR | $674,100 | 9.1% | -13.2% | 67.8 | 127 | 69 |
| Francis Manuleleua | NEW | $282,500 | 7.3% | -0.1% | 42.8 | -4 | 55 |
| Briton Nikora | SHA | $507,200 | 6.2% | -0.1% | 60 | 57 | 76 |
| Kalani Going | PTH | $207,900 | 6.0% | -0.2% | 22.8 | 8 | 22 |
| Tino Fa’asuamaleaui | GCT | $636,100 | 5.0% | 2.3% | 73.2 | 55 | 82 |
Simi Sasagi is the 2nd most traded-in player this week among the top 1% of Supercoaches, with 289 trading him in.
He has been a convenient swap with his fellow teammate Hudson Young, who will miss the rest of the season with an Achilles injury. Whilst Tom Trbojevic and Tallis Duncan have also been popular trades.
It is an interesting play, particularly considering that his point-scoring has dropped with Ethan Strange moving to the left.
Minus his injury-impacted game against Penrith, he averaged 89 points with Strange on the right; but in his last 3 games with Strange moving to the other side of the field, his average has dropped to 59.7.
David Fifita seems to be hold for the top 1%, with just 34 owners letting him go. That is much lower than 200+ letting go of Tallis Duncan and Hudson Young this week.
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