EPL Supercoach Final Word | Gameweek 3 trades, fixtures, captains

Banked 167 last week, sitting 2,688 overall. No trades, no dramas.

But this week’s different. Prices move for the first time this season, and there’s huge cash on the table.

Every other week, the player who scored well has already banked most of their price rise by the time you get to them. Not this week.

Here’s the catch: don’t boost for the sake of it. Trade in three money-makers and you’ll need to move them all out again within a fortnight or lose the gains; that’s forcing yourself into two more boosts just to cash out clean.

Only pull the trigger if the player you’re bringing in is one you actually want long term. Let’s get into it.

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Fixtures

Kickoff	Team	xG	CS%		Team	xG	CS%
Sat 05/09, 5:00am	Ipswich	1.10	11%	vs	Liverpool	2.25	33%
Sat 05/09, 9:30pm	Newcastle	1.72	24%	vs	Bournemouth	1.42	18%
Sun 06/09, 12:00am	Brentford	1.88	41%	vs	Sunderland	0.89	15%
Sun 06/09, 12:00am	Brighton	1.66	34%	vs	Leeds	1.08	19%
Sun 06/09, 12:00am	Fulham	1.47	28%	vs	Crystal Palace	1.26	23%
Sun 06/09, 12:00am	Man City	2.95	48%	vs	Coventry	0.74	5%
Sun 06/09, 12:00am	Nott’m Forest	1.38	28%	vs	Tottenham	1.28	25%
Sun 06/09, 2:30am	Hull	1.07	19%	vs	Aston Villa	1.67	34%
Sun 06/09, 11:00pm	Everton	1.31	20%	vs	Man United	1.63	27%
Mon 07/09, 1:30am	Arsenal	1.84	36%	vs	Chelsea	1.01	16%

Man City is the number that jumps off the page: 2.95 xG and 48% CS%.

Only owning Haaland is starting to feel light this week. But tearing up your team to chase more City assets is the trap.

This squad is so deep that I can’t point at anyone outside Haaland and guarantee minutes over the medium term.

Liverpool against Ipswich look like a walk in the park on paper, but their clean sheet number sitting at just 33% shows how shaky that defence has actually looked.

This is a prime attacking fixture, not a defensive one. I wouldn’t be trading out any Liverpool assets this week.

Newcastle is the one that’s snuck up on me. I wasn’t expecting to write this a few weeks ago, but with a solid fixture now and a good run coming, bringing in a Newcastle player is genuinely on the cards.

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Trade Plans

Cherki (£9.17m) is the big decision of the week. He’s on an absolute tear with a breakeven of -14. But who are you cutting to fund him?

• People are trading out Wirtz (£6.97m), who has another great fixture against Ipswich this week. I wouldn’t do it.
• If you’ve got the cash to do a Tonali or Santos type upgrade, go for it. But I wouldn’t wreck my team for Cherki.
• He’ll score well, and he’ll go up in price, but he was meant to be subbed at half time last week with more bodies coming into that City squad. He’s a trade out soon, not a long-term hold.

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Hull’s cheap assets are worth a look this week.

• Ajayi (£4.5m) sits on a -14 breakeven and will likely make you £2m in cash in one week, easiest money you’ll find all season. Clean sheet against a scoreless Villa and he pushes to £3.5m. Concede, and he still nets a few points, though you might end up moving him on before Chelsea at an awkward sub-£7m price. Call it a 100% chance of the £2m, 20% chance of the £3.5m, worth it for me given I already have Colwill.
• If you’re stuck on a trash keeper, anyone outside Raya or Trafford (£4.92m), Tzolakis (£4.5m) at -14 breakeven is a great trade, and sets you up to get to Raya in a few weeks.
• Egan (£4.2m) is tempting me over Ajayi. His breakeven is worse, but he’s a base stat monster who scores even in poor results, so you won’t need to trade him as early. I’m still probably jumping off him in 1-2 weeks though, so Ajayi for the extra cash makes more sense for me.

Palmer (£8.77m) and Pedro (£8.98m) face the hardest attacking fixture in the league against Arsenal, but you’ll want them next week against Hull.

If you don’t already own Palmer, jump on him now regardless of the fixture. Pedro’s harder with limited squad space; I’m holding off this week and hoping to find value elsewhere.

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On Newcastle, two names to weigh up.

• Elanga (£3.9m) vs Wissa (£3.9m): Elanga makes more cash short-term (-16 breakeven vs -9), but this isn’t a one-week punt; you’re holding for their good run. I’m going Wissa for the more consistent points.
• Dedic (£4.2m) is loved by the manager and getting forward, but with Livramento back next week, his minutes are under threat. Either he holds his spot through Newcastle’s good run and turns into the best trade-in of the week, or he ends up like the Hull punts, a quick trade out in a couple of weeks. Risky, but there’s real upside if he keeps his place.

On the outs, O’Reilly (£8.77m) makes no sense to me as a trade away this week. This is the exact fixture you bought him for.

He could easily top score, and he’s unlucky to be sitting on 9 points so far. Hold.

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Tzolis (£6.5m) is the one I can’t hold. Subbed at half time last week, Chelsea up next, Champions League minutes about to eat into his game time.

I traded Pedro for him before GW1, and clinging on now might cost me the season. Jump off to Pedro if you can afford it, or bank some cash first through Wissa or Elanga.

Palestra (£3.9m) is a hold. You only need one big attacking return, and you’re in the money.

He should be back next week against Hull, and the way Neto’s been scoring gives you a sense of what those points could look like.

Frimpong (£4.17m) is trickier now. Szoboszlai’s reportedly been training at right back all week, so Frimpong might be benched.

I still think there’s an attacking return in him if you hold and wait, but I’m starting to consider trading him.

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My planned moves

Option 1: Colwill (£4.03m) and Tzolis (£6.5m) > Wissa (£3.9m) and Ajayi (£4.5m)

Option 2 (boost): Option 1, plus Frimpong (£4.17m) > Dedic (£4.2m)

This leaves me with Wissa as the long-term piece and Ajayi as the value grab, not just cash for the sake of it.

Stop there, and that’s two trades, not three, and I’m not locking myself into extra moves down the line.

The boost option adds Frimpong to Dedic on top, banking on Newcastle’s run to make it a long-term swap rather than another quick flip.

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Captains

VC: Isak (£4.79m)

C: Haaland (£13.15m)

Haaland’s a no-brainer this week. You have to chase that City fixture; 2.95 xG and 48% CS% isn’t something you fade.

If you need an early kickoff option for VC, Isak against Ipswich does the job. 

And if you can somehow line up a VC Haaland into a C Bruno loop, do it; that’s the dream scenario for the round.