NRL Finals Week 1 team lists: Full squads + NRL Supercoach analysis

The NRL Supercoach Classic season is over; now the attention turns to NRL Supercoach finals.

The Big Wigs at SC headquarters have put up a Hilux valued at $79,000 as the first prize for a four-week contest- incredible!

Shout out to Nick from Wigan in the UK, who took out the SC Playbook unlimited league, an incredible effort considering the time zone difference he had to compete with.

Nick claims the $1000 first prize from SC Playbook for his efforts.

Despite playing with just 16, the Cooma Stallions had a strong final round with 1,386 points to finish in 7,800^th overall.

It was a disappointing season that was well short of the goal, but a decent final round made for a respectable enough rank.

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Nonetheless, we’ve got plenty of soul-searching to do over the off-season.

Shout out to Clementine Cassidy, who finished 30^th overall! Clem now has two top-30 finishes to her name, gun.

Onto finals, where the rules are a little different.

You simply need to pick a squad of eight players each week of finals, one player from each position along with a flex player.

You have unlimited trades each week, so there’s no need to think ahead. It’s a week-by-week shootout.

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The other substantial difference is captaincy selection, with your captain scoring 3x points and vice-captains scoring 2x points.

Essentially, get your captaincy selections wrong, and you’re done…

Plenty of the analysis will focus on the strength of edge defence for each club; check out statsinsider.com.au for more.

Keep in mind the stats come across the duration of the season, so personal changes will have an impact.

Let’s take a look at the NRL Supercoach analysis for finals week one.

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RABBITOHS vs KNIGHTS

Friday, 7:50pm, Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Rabbitohs: 1. Matthew Dufty 2. Alex Johnston 3. Latrell Mitchell 4. Jack Wighton 5. Campbell Graham 6. Cody Walker 7. Jayden Sullivan 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Brandon Smith 10. Keaon Koloamatangi 11. David Fifita 12. Tallis Duncan 13. Cameron Murray

Bench: 14. Jye Gray 15. Lachlan Hubner 16. Sean Keppie 17. Jamie Humphreys 18. Adam Elliott 19. Latrell Siegwalt

Reserves: 20. Liam Le Blanc 21. Talanoa Penitani 22. Peter Mamouzelos

Analysis: The Knights’ left edge concedes 43% of all their tries, compared to 30% on the right.

This points to the edge of Jack Wighton and Campbell Graham, but we all know at the Bunnies it’s left-side, strong-side.

The Rabbitohs score a whopping 51% of tries down their left edge, compared to just 31% on the right.

Alex Johnston and Latrell Mitchell are excellent targets, and with 58% of coaches flocking to Herbie Farnworth, you can nab the other pair at a far smaller ownership.

AJ is owned by just 1%, while Latrell is at 23%. I don’t mind that at all!

Tallis Duncan retains his dual positioning for finals and is owned by a huge 41% across both positions.

He shifts to the back-row where his base stats rise a fair amount, while his attacking potential drops off a touch. A great buy in either spot really.

Cam Murray is my favourite player in the game, and I haven’t been able to buy him all season.

He finished the season with huge scores of 174 and 93 and will play big minutes in the must-win game; he may become a Stallion once again. 

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Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Fletcher Sharpe 7. Sandon Smith 8. Tyson Frizell 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Cody Hopwood 11. Jermaine McEwen 12. Francis Manuleleua 13. Mathew Croker

Bench: 14. Harrison Graham 15. Lachlan Crouch 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Thomas Cant 18. Fletcher Hunt 19. Toby Winter

Reserves: 20. Kyle McCarthy 21. Elijah Leaumoana 22. Diesel Hagan

Analysis: The Rabbitohs’ right edge concedes 39% of all tries, compared to 30% on the left edge.

Statistically, this pushes towards the Knights’ more dominant left edge in attack of Greg Marzhew and Bradman Best.

That being said, with Jack Wighton and Campbell Graham both fit and firing, I wouldn’t read into that number too much personally.

With Best back, Marzhew becomes far more relevant, having finished the season with a stunning 117 points with the Knights down to 12-men for most of the game.

Greg the Leg is currently in 0% of teams!!!

South Sydney may be favourites off the back of their stunning attack, but their defence isn’t always crash hot.

Kalyn Ponga off a rest becomes an elite target at just 25% ownership despite an underwhelming 53-point average in the final three games of the season.

Fletcher Sharpe is also a strong pick to plug the five-eighth slot at 27% after finishing the season with a five-round average of 81 points.

Francis Manuleleua has been named in a huge boost for the Knights, and POD hunters…

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WARRIORS vs DOLPHINS

Saturday, 4:05pm, Go Media Stadium, Auckland

Warriors: 1. Taine Tuaupiki 2. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 3. Ali Leiataua 4. Leka Halasima 5. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Te Maire Martin 8. James Fisher-Harris 9. Wayde Egan 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jacob Laban 13. Erin Clark

Bench: 14. Samuel Healey 15. Tanner Stowers-Smith 16. Demitric Vaimauga 17. Jackson Ford 18. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava 20. Adam Pompey

Reserves: 21. Jett Cleary 22. Luke Laulilii 23. Makaia Tafua

Analysis: The Dolphins’ right edge concedes 40% of all tries, compared to 34% on the left.

Te Maire Martin is currently the most-owned five-eighth in a very spread-out position, currently selected by 28% of coaches.

By the numbers, he’s the very clear pick, averaging 82.9 points in the regular season as the number-one averaging player.

Cody Walker is next on the list from finals teams at just 65.3 points per game, followed by Fletcher Sharpe at 64.5 points per game.

TMM looked elite on return from injury and will be hard to ignore.

If I was looking elsewhere for a Warrior, Jacob Laban is a serious super POD play at just 2% ownership.

He finished the season with a three-round average of 88 points and was absolutely devastating in the 80-minute role. 

He gets a match-up running off Te Maire Martin at Kodi Nikorima, not bad at all!

Supercoach gun Jackson Ford returns from a lengthy injury lay-off and may become relevant later on in Supercoach finals.

Leka Halasima returns from a final round resting.

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Dolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jack Bostock 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Tom Gilbert 11. Max Plath 12. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 13. Morgan Knowles

Bench: 14. Kurt Donoghoe 15. Ray Stone 16. Francis Molo 17. Connelly Lemuelu 18. Felise Kaufusi 19. Brad Schneider

Reserves: 20. Jake Averillo 21. Brian Pouniu 22. Tevita Naufahu

Analysis: The Warriors’ left and right edge are just 4% apart defensively.

Herbie Farnworth is currently in 58% of teams; we don’t really need to go into detail on why.

He was the second-highest averaging CTW this season with 89.6 points per game.

While I can’t really knock the buy, and wouldn’t dare, I can advocate for the CTW position as one to anti-POD the No.1 pick.

The match-up with the Warriors across the ditch is brutal.

The Wahs have the second-best defence in the NRL, conceding just 418 points this season; next best was the Roosters on 501!

This should be an absolute corker of a game, but I’m not overly keen on entertaining too many players.

Jamayne Isaako has huge upside, but I feel there’s better match-ups to target.

Selwyn Cobbo and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki both return from rests.

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SHARKS vs COWBOYS

Saturday, 7:50pm, Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Sharks: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Riley Jones 4. KL Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Jesse Colquhoun 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes

Bench: 14. Siosifa Talakai 15. Billy Burns 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Thomas Hazelton 18. Hohepa Puru 19. Toby Rudolf

Reserves: 20. Niwhai Puru 21. Samuel Stonestreet 22. Mawene Hiroti

Analysis: The Cowboys’ right edge concedes 40% of all tries compared to 35% on the left.

This pushes towards the left of KL Iro and Ronaldo Mulitalo of the attacking contingent.

Losing four of their last five games of the year, Cronulla are just so hard to trust.

If they turn up and play their best, they could put 50 points on, but current form has them a long way off that.

Braydon Trindall returns in a huge boost for the entire squad, including Nicho Hynes at just 25% ownership.

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With people flocking to Nathan Cleary for obvious reasons, there’s a massive play in Nicho.

Last finals campaign, Nicho destroyed the Raiders in week two, but was fairly quiet in weeks one and three.

Cleary is the obvious pick, though Nicho is very enticing against a fairly fragile Cowboys defensive unit.

I wouldn’t get too tricky at hooker; Blayke Brailey is the most selected at 52%, which I expect to grow substantially before kick-off on Friday.

He averaged 69.8 points this season, well ahead of Reece Robson (among finals teams) in second place at 59.2 points. 

He’s the most consistent in the position and also has upside; lock him in. 

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Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Braidon Burns 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Tomas Chester 5. Zac Laybutt 6. Jake Clifford 7. Tom Dearden 8. Griffin Neame 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter

Bench: 14. Soni Luke 15. John Bateman 16. Thomas Mikaele 17. Coen Hess 18. Kaiden Lahrs 19. Ethan King

Reserves: 20. Kai O’Donnell 21. Sam McIntyre 22. Liam Sutton

Analysis: The Sharks’ edges are just 1% apart defensively; however, Jesse Ramien’s absence certainly has a significant impact on their right.

While the Cowboys have every chance to win this fixture, I’m not overly keen on their assets.

Scott Drinkwater finished the season in style with back-to-back 90s, granted it was at home to the Raiders and Tigers.

He’s always an elite pick and is one for the risk takers.

Braidon Burns has the 10^th-highest CTW average of finals teams with an excellent 70.2 points, including 44.6 in base and power stats.

Heilum Luki is probably the only other I’d consider, averaging the sixth most points of 2RFs in finals with 70.3 per game.

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PANTHERS vs ROOSTERS

Sunday, 4:05pm, CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Thomas Jenkins 3. Luke Garner 4. Casey McLean 5. Brian To’o 6. Jack Cole 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo

Bench: 14. Freddy Lussick 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Liam Henry 17. Billy Phillips 18. Blaize Talagi 19. Billy Scott

Reserves: 20. Luron Patea 21. Kalani Leuluai-going 22. Jesse McLean

Analysis: The Roosters’ right edge concedes 41% of all tries, compared to 32% on the left.

The left have lost Sam Walker; however, Hugo Savala is the replacement who is arguably a better defensive option anyway.

This aligns perfectly with Penrith’s lethal left edge attack that scores 43% of all their tries, compared to 32% on the right.

Tom Jenkins finished third for season, averaging CTWs playing in finals with 83.2 points per game.

He’s in just 4% of teams, which seems a little crazy for the season he’s just produced.

While he’s a decent option, this isn’t a fixture I’ll rush to target, although I do love the Sunday afternoon aspect.

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Casey McLean erupted in the final round of the season with 175 points, but he won’t face the Tigers edges this week…

Rob Toia will prove a far more difficult assignment.

No need to elaborate on Nathan Cleary too much; he’s the most owned player in the game by an enormous 16%, and it’s for good reason.

Do note, though, he produced scores of just 43 and 69 against the Roosters this season.

Still no Paul Alamoti for Penrith!

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Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Robert Toia 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Hugo Savala 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Naufahu Whyte 9. Reece Robson 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Salesi Foketi 12. Siua Wong 13. Victor Radley

Bench: 14. Connor Watson 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Nat Butcher 17. Angus Crichton 18. Cody Ramsey 19. Tommy Talau

Reserves: 20. Egan Butcher 21. Benaiah Ioelu 22. Taylor Losalu

Analysis: Penrith’s left edge concedes 38% of tries, compared to 35% on the right.

However, this is skewed a little with Blaize Talagi dropped late in the season due to defensive deficiencies. 

I wouldn’t rush to buy any Roosters players due to the quality of Penrith.

The Riff had the best defence in the NRL by a huge margin, conceding just 347 points.

As mentioned above, the Warriors were second with 418 points, then the Roosters in third with 501.

Mark Nawaqanitawase is the super POD play at just 2% ownership.

He’s fairly high risk in a tough match-up, but he’s also an absolute freak.

Having James Tedesco back on deck is extremely beneficial to his scoring.

Teddy himself is another strong option and is well owned at 32%; I don’t love that he played just one game in the final five weeks, though.

As good as he is, I’ll target better attacking match-ups elsewhere.

Angus Crichton returns on the bench for the Roosters.