EPL Supercoach Final Word | Gameweek 5 trades, fixtures, captains

118 points. Up to around 3k overall. Haaland’s captain goal shouldn’t have been allowed, and a Raya penalty save bailed me out, but I’ll take it.

The bigger worry isn’t the score; it’s the bank balance. I picked Dedic for cash, and he’s barely moved, while the rest of the top 1% cashed in on Yalcouye (+£3.6m), Jacquet (+£2.7m), King (+£3.2m) and the Hull defenders.

Falling behind on team value is its own kind of pressure, and it’s shaping my thinking this week.

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The Fixtures

One quick plug before we get into it: Base Points have landed on the Supercoach site, and they’re an amazing resource.

If you’re not checking Base Points before locking in a trade this week, you’re working with half the picture.

Kickoff	Home	xG	CS%		Away	xG	CS%
Sat 19.09, 9:30pm	Brentford	1.62	18%	vs	Chelsea	1.74	20%
Sat 19.09, 9:30pm	Tottenham	1.62	31%	vs	Aston Villa	1.17	20%
Sun 20.09, 12:00am	Brighton	1.04	16%	vs	Arsenal	1.86	35%
Sun 20.09, 11:00pm	Leeds	1.79	34%	vs	Crystal Palace	1.08	17%
Sun 20.09, 11:00pm	Man City	2.39	48%	vs	Sunderland	0.72	9%
Sun 20.09, 11:00pm	Bournemouth	1.50	16%	vs	Liverpool	1.82	22%
Sun 20.09, 12:00am	Everton	1.80	34%	vs	Ipswich	1.08	17%
Sun 20.09, 12:00am	Newcastle	2.03	36%	vs	Hull	1.02	13%
Sun 20.09, 2:30am	Nott’m Forest	1.88	39%	vs	Coventry	0.94	15%
Mon 21.09, 1:30am	Fulham	1.37	17%	vs	Man Utd	1.77	25%

Man City at home to Sunderland look great on paper. 48% clean sheet odds are the standout number on the board this week, backed up by 2.39 expected goals, the highest of the entire round.

Sunderland’s away form has been shaky, and that’s exactly why the numbers look this good. My only hesitation isn’t the fixture; it’s whether players like Cherki even start.

Home banker for the defence, some minutes risk for the attackers.

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Newcastle is why I loaded up on Dedic, Barnes and Wissa in the first place. They were poor last week, but I’m banking on a bounce back against Hull. Fair warning, Hull keep defying expectations, so this isn’t a lock.

Everton have Ipswich this week and Hull next, back-to-back soft fixtures. If you’re going to load up on Everton assets, now is the time, not after they’ve already banked the points.

Nottingham Forest get Coventry and Palace over the next two rounds. Everyone’s looking at their midfield options like Gibbs-White, but a 39% clean sheet number is calling my name too. Load up.

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Trade Ins

Konsa (£5.59m) is an amazing price for a defender sitting in the best defence in the league.

He hasn’t been a huge base-stat player, which is exactly why he’s this cheap, but he’s picking them up at a higher rate now that he’s at Arsenal. He’d have had 13 last week if not for a penalty giveaway.

Anywhere near this price, he’s the best option on the park, and if you’re light on Arsenal, he’s a huge target. I’m still torn myself; I’ve already got Raya and Calafiori and want Gabriel next.

Tarkowski (£11.76m) and Branthwaite (£8.01m) are both base stat monsters,  averaging 6.5 base stats a game.

Tarkowski needs to be in every squad at some point, but his price is inflated off the back of a goal in week two.

That’s pushed me toward Branthwaite instead, a lowest score of 7 with regular scores close to 15 when Everton keep it clean. Who says no to that floor?

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Muñoz (£8.69m) hasn’t had enough attention this week. We all saw what he did last season when fit, and again at the World Cup. He’s dropped £1.3m purely because of limited minutes in weeks one and three while he was mid-transfer.

He picked up right where he left off with an 11 last week, and that’s with zero attacking points or clean sheet involved. A breakeven of 13 against Coventry is easily achievable. Don’t wait until after he hauls to jump on.

Gibbs-White (£11.4m) is a smash pick. 1.59 expected goals and 1.02 assists across the first four games, he picks up base stats consistently, and you know what the fixtures look like from here.

Penalty takers who deliver like this are exactly the type I want in my midfield, and he’s the best option going if you’re trading out of Bruno.

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Stach (£10.25m) is the boring pick, but boring is what you want when trading down from Bruno. The last thing you need is another midfielder who bleeds cash. Stach won’t do that.

He’s averaging 5.8 base stats a game with genuine attacking upside on 0.92 expected goals for the season. He’s going to score 8 plus most weeks. A safe option, plain and simple.

Szoboszlai (£10.78m) is cut from the same cloth as Stach, solid as a rock at 6.8 base stats a game, but he’s on penalties too. He loves a screamer, as we saw midweek.

If you’re already spending two trades getting Bruno out and back in eventually, why not just grab a player you’ll never need to trade?

Dewsbury-Hall (£8.85m) has now leapfrogged Garner as my preferred Everton midfield option, sitting on higher base stats with more attacking upside.

I can see him picking up a goal or assist across these next two fixtures, and you don’t need much money to upgrade off Wirtz to get him.

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Trade Outs

Hull defenders made their money. Take the cash and run, as flagged last week.

Dedic (£6.39m) is a shame to lose; I wanted him for the Hull and Coventry run. But with Livramento back and Dedic already copping early subs and benchings, plus a breakeven of 17, this is a reluctant sell.

In hindsight, a poor buy on my part given I knew Livramento was a threat to his minutes.

Lewis-Skelly (£4.62m) was always going to be a short-term hold once Arsenal got their midfield back to full strength.

I don’t expect his minutes to hold up from here, and Brighton is a tricky fixture to trust him in. Time to jump off.

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O’Reilly (£7.27m) was a mistake on my part to recommend holding. His minutes are nowhere near locked in, and he’s bleeding cash with an 18 breakeven.

Bruno Fernandes (£16.22m) is the big one, and the most crucial call in this entire article. We picked him as a season keeper; he dropped 47 in week two, and now Fulham await this week.

So why is anyone considering moving him on?

Reasons to sell:

• Outside that 47, his scores read 7, 3, 6. That floor is the worry; you’re not getting the week-in-week-out reliability of a Szoboszlai type.
• His breakeven sits at 39, and he’s set to drop somewhere between £2m and £2.5m this week.
• Remember the Hull defenders everyone rushed to buy in week one? This is the same principle in reverse; you’re avoiding a guaranteed price drop instead of chasing a rise. For teams like mine struggling for cash, that’s still a serious play.

Reasons to hold:

• He can drop 20 in any given week. That ceiling doesn’t exist for most cash generation options.
• Selling costs you two trades, maybe three depending on how you spend the cash, to get him out and eventually back in.
• 25.2% of the top 1% are trading him out this week, more than I expected. That’s turning him into more of a POD for whoever holds

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Do you have the nerve to go without him? I’m not a fan of trading him down and parking the cash elsewhere, yes it means an easier path back to him, but sitting cash doesn’t score you points on the field.

This one is team dependent. Be careful; once you see what that money spreads into across your squad, you’ll want to pull the trigger.

Cherki (£11.14m) has a 24 breakeven and terrible minutes. Surely a sell? Foden’s red card opens the door to more game time, but I’m not convinced.

The good news is City play early on Sunday, 11pm, so you can see the team sheet before pulling the trigger to Gibbs-White or Szoboszlai. If he starts, I’d hold; Sunderland is a great fixture to have him for.

Wirtz (£7.25m) has been held too long. He’s barely made a cent, and I’d have been far better off in an Ødegaard type who’s both in form and making money. That said, he’s still involved; 0.77 expected goals says as much.

I’d happily trade him now, and you’ll want him gone before City next week regardless, though holding him one more round won’t cost you anything either.

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Where I’m Landing

I’ve got two options on the table this week, and I’m genuinely torn.

The Bold move:

• Bruno Fernandes out, Szoboszlai in
• Dedic out, Muñoz in
• Colwill (£3.77m) out, Branthwaite in

I don’t trust the Chelsea defence, and Colwill was never going to make me money.

This move leaves me with five defenders who are all playable every single week with brilliant base stats, and it leaves me with just £10k in the bank. It almost feels like fate that I should pull the trigger.

The downside is real though: no path back to Bruno, which is a horrifying thought when I know what he can score. It does put me a week ahead on other transfers I’d have needed to make anyway.

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The Boring move:

• Dedic out, Konsa in
• Wirtz out, Dewsbury-Hall in 

I wouldn’t even play Konsa this week, and honestly I rate the £10m midfielders above Dewsbury-Hall. But that’s me talking after seeing what the Bold move opens up.

Earlier in the week, before I mapped out the alternative, I was completely content with this one.

I’m sitting at 70:30 in favour of the Bold move right now. I’ll see what the Discord thinks before I lock it in.

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Captains

Brighton play in the third game of the round, which leaves next to no vice-captain options before them, basically just Chelsea. That locks Palmer in as my VC.

For the captaincy itself, it’s a straight shootout between Haaland, Bruno (if you’re still holding him) and Gibbs-White.

I’m going with Haaland. Home fixture, highest expected goals of anyone in the round. Simple as that.