NRL Finals Week 3 team lists: Full squads + NRL Supercoach analysis

Two weeks down, two to play!

The NRL finals series is heating up rapidly as we reach the grand final qualifiers.

Those in the hunt for the overall crown in NRL Supercoach Finals will be starting to pick out a colour for their Hilux; good luck to those in the race for the top spot.

The Cooma Stallions had an okay week with 702 points to move up a touch into 18k overall, so sadly I won’t be driving home in a new truck.

In our Beers and Breakevens battle with Guru and Matty, with an awful punishment on the line, Ru had a garbage week to close the gap, so that battle is back on.

I was a Nicho Hynes owner for his 0 points following his failed HIA; fortunately, I didn’t have the captaincy on him.

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Unfortunately, my POD FRF play of Naufahu Whyte failed, with the big fella playing just 25 minutes of game time, which is well below his season average of 52 minutes, later revealed to be due to an ongoing hamstring injury, sigh.

The attention turns to finals week three, with all eyes on Nathan Cleary and Sammy Walker, who have been named despite injury concerns.

Plenty of the analysis below will focus on the strength of edge defence for each club; check out statsinsider.com.au for more.

Keep in mind the stats come across the duration of the season, so personnel changes will have an impact.

Let’s take a look at the NRL Supercoach Finals week three teams analysis.

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DOLPHINS vs ROOSTERS

Friday, 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Dolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jack Bostock 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Tom Gilbert 11. Max Plath 12. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 13. Morgan Knowles

Bench: 14. Kurt Donoghoe 15. Ray Stone 16. Francis Molo 17. Connelly Lemuelu 18. Felise Kaufusi 19. Brad Schneider

Reserves: 20. Jake Averillo 21. Brian Pouniu 22. Tevita Naufahu

Analysis: The Roosters concede 40% of tries down their right edge, compared to 32% on the left.

Statistically, this bodes well for Herbie Farnworth and Selwyn Cobbo on the left edge.

As I learnt the hard way in week one, Herbie is a near-impossible fade after belting out 151 points against the Warriors.

Back on home turf, he’s near irresistible. 

The match-up with Rob Toia is an interesting one; he is a bit of a specialist at locking down his opposing centre physically, so it could just mean he puts Cobbo over for a few.

Leave him out at your own risk.

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If Sammy Walker does play, this looms as a nice match-up for Kulikefu Finefuiaki as the Dolphins undoubtedly look to target the little playmaker on return from injury.

I like him less if the bigger-bodied Hugo Savala is there.

While they’re not bad plays by any means, I’d probably look to avoid the right edge of Jamayne Isaako and Jack Bostock against the strong defensive combo of Billy Smith and Daniel Tupou.

Max Plath will be a popular pick at hooker, coming off a respectable 59 in finals week one, with big minutes expected again this week.

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Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Robert Toia 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Daly Cherry-Evans 7. Sam Walker 8. Naufahu Whyte 9. Reece Robson 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Salesi Foketi 12. Siua Wong 13. Victor Radley

Bench: 14. Connor Watson 15. Angus Crichton 16. Nat Butcher 17. Spencer Leniu 18. Hugo Savala 19. Cody Ramsey

Reserves: 20. Egan Butcher 21. Tommy Talau 22. Benaiah Ioelu

Analysis: The Dolphins concede 34% of tries down their left edge, compared to 39% on the right.

Statistically, this favours the left of the Roosters in Billy Smith and Daniel Tupou.

Neither man fired against the Sharks, but they remain decent plays this week.

The fullback slot is interesting this week, with four genuine options in James Tedesco, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Dylan Edwards and Kalyn Ponga.

You can make a strong argument for any of the four.

Teddy will be hard to resist, though; he has the most runs on the board in recent years and has returned from injury with scores of 98 and 96 in the finals.

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Siua Wong was my pod play last week at 2RF and rescued his score of 63 with a late try-assist.

He remains a decent option with a nice match-up on the smaller Kodi Nikorima.

Reece Robson notched 71 points last week in 79 minutes on field and looms as a strong pick at hooker.

He perhaps lacks the upside of others, but he’s arguably the most reliable for a 50+ score.

Sammy Walker has been named to return at halfback in a potential huge boost for the Chooks.

Savala has therefore shifted to the bench, but if Walker is a late out, I think I’ll start Savala in the five-eighth position.

I’m not sure I could touch Walker on an early return from injury, but with Cleary also playing with an injury, it does open up the halfback slot.

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PANTHERS vs KNIGHTS

Sunday, 4pm, Accor Stadium, Sydney

Panthers: . Dylan Edwards 2. Thomas Jenkins 3. Blaize Talagi 4. Casey McLean 5. Brian To’o 6. Jack Cole 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo

Bench: 14. Jack Cogger 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Liam Henry 17. Billy Phillips 18. Luke Garner 19. Billy Scott

Reserves: 20. Luron Patea 21. Freddy Lussick 22. Izack Tago

Analysis: The Knights concede a huge 44% of tries down their left edge, compared to 31% on the right.

This favours the right edge of the Panthers, including the returning Paul Alamoti and Brian To’o.

On the flip side, Penrith’s left edge has been far stronger this season, scoring 45% of their tries, compared to 30% on the right.

Is Cleary simply a must?

He’s playing with a fresh injury that would have sidelined him for an extended period if not for being a prelim final, meaning he also won’t goal-kick.

If Walker wasn’t in the exact same boat with injury, I’d avoid the Penrith superstar, but options in the position aren’t exactly crash hot.

I’ll be tempted to start him, but leave the captaincy and vice-captaincy off him as a bit of a POD play. There’s a lot still to play out this week around this decision!

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With Paul Alamoti still out, Blaize Talagi has been named at centre, although I have a feeling Garner may take that centre spot come gameday.

Tommy Jenkins appeals after a stunning season where he averaged 83 points, before being kept to just 34 against the Roosters in week one of finals.

The man on his inside, Casey McLean, is a weapon who is also worth consideration.

Dylan Edwards looks likely to take over the goal-kicking duties, which would make him far more appealing, and even a captaincy option.

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If Cleary is underdone due to injury, Edwards will be the man injecting himself more in key attacking territory to aid his star half.

Isaiah Papali’i averaged 77.27 points in his 11 games of 80 minutes this season.

He then delivered an excellent 81 points in finals week one, although he only played 59 minutes in the only minor concern around his selection.

Despite this, he didn’t have a single major attacking stat making up his points, with 34 tackles, six tacklebusts, two offloads and 17 runs.

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Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Fletcher Sharpe 7. Sandon Smith 8. Tyson Frizell 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Cody Hopwood 11. Jermaine McEwen 12. Francis Manuleleua 13. Mathew Croker

Bench: 14. Harrison Graham 15. Lachlan Crouch 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Dylan Lucas 18. Fletcher Hunt 19. Thomas Cant

Reserves: 20. Kyle McCarthy 21. Elijah Leaumoana 22. Toby Winter

Analysis: The Panthers concede 41% of tries down their left edge, compared to 34% on the right edge.

This statistically favours the Knights’ right edge of Dane Gagai and Dom Young, who have been electric in recent times.

I can’t quite bring myself to overinvest in many Knights players who enter the fixture as the biggest underdogs of the weekend.

If they can spring an upset over Penrith, there’s every chance it’s a relatively low-scoring, grindy affair.

That being said, their ability to counter-attack from anywhere on the field is arguably the best in the game, so don’t be completely put off by their fierce rivals.

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Ponga is the question: can he produce his brilliance against the Riff?

On his current form, probably, but when considering match-ups I don’t particularly like it for him.

You could argue the same for Fletcher Sharpe coming off a century in New Zealand; however, there’s just so much to like about the livewire.

In a fairly unappealing five-eighth position, he’s definitely the best credentialed Supercoach asset.

If Talagi does in fact start at right centre, Bradman Best becomes a genuine option at CTW.