NBA Supercoach Wrap | The Week 1 Ledger

NBA Supercoach expert Alex Sumsky breaks down Week 1 of NBA Supercoach and gives his biggest takeaways

NBA

One week down, 22 to go. Week 1 is locked away, and the first price changes are in, so we’ve now got scores and money to go on.

It’s too early to tear anything up, but Week 1 still told us plenty: who the real captain options are, which premiums need patience, where the value was, which rookies have a role, and where the money moved. Here’s what I took out of it, and how it shapes Week 2.

Games beat names

SuperCoach NBA Week 1 player scores

The best captain of Week 1 wasn’t Luka, Wemby, or Shai. It was Tyrese Maxey, with 115 from Philly’s four games. Philly were the only team with four games in Week 1, and that extra game was enough to put him clear of every premium.

The template captains were fine without being special. Luka put up 100. Shai and Wemby were in the low 80s. If you captained one of them, you didn’t lose ground on most of the field, but the coaches who backed the schedule over the name got a real head start.

That’s the lesson I’m taking into every captaincy call this season. When a good player has an extra game, he’s usually a better captain than a great player without it.

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The premiums need a bit of patience

Not one of the big four premiums hit his break-even in Week 1, and three of them have dropped in price.

PlayerWeek 1Break-evenNew priceChange
Luka Doncic100108$23.62M+$10k
Giannis Antetokounmpo8599$21.54M−$100k
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander83103$22.34M−$190k
Victor Wembanyama80108$23.29M−$310k

None of those drops are big. Wemby is $310k cheaper than he was at the start, which is a small discount on the most-owned player in the game, not a reason to sell.

Giannis has the best excuse. His first two games in Miami turned into blowouts, and he sat late; then he fouled out of the third after 24 minutes. The usage is clearly there. Three normal games of minutes and he’s a 100-plus player.

Wemby and Shai just had quiet weeks. Neither is a reason to sell. They’re both elite, and chasing last week’s scores is how you end up paying more for a player who’s about to cool off.

Jokic only played two games and scored 64. Denver plays three in Week 2, so after this week his price will move massively. If you want him, this is the last chance to buy him at his lowest price.

Jayson Tatum is the one I’d keep a closer eye on. He played only two of Boston’s three games for 53 points. For a player coming back from an Achilles, that’s worth watching before you buy.

Where the value was

Jalen Johnson was the premium of the week. 97 points, more than Shai, Wemby, or Giannis. He’s gone up $190k to $20.37M, and he’s still in only about one team in ten. Atlanta has four games in both Week 2 and Week 3, so he’s the obvious premium to look at this week.

Haliburton and Reaves both justified the risk. Haliburton came back from his Achilles and scored 88 against a break-even of 62, and he’s up $480k. Reaves scored 93 against 75 and is up $380k. If you’ve got either, you’re already making money.

The two nobody had. Ty Jerome scored 103 for Memphis, the third-best score of the week, and almost nobody owns him. He’s up $700k to $14.42M. Dyson Daniels put up 87 for Atlanta and is up $420k. Neither was on many radars before the season, and both are now worth a look.

The Houston trio held up. Sengun and Amen Thompson scored 83 each and Durant 76. Nothing spectacular, but solid, and Houston has four games in Week 2.

The one to move on from is Rui Hachimura. I liked him in preseason as a cheap starter, and he scored 20 for the week. He’s already down $220k. If you’ve got him, he’s the easiest trade-out of Week 2.

Role beats draft slot

The rookie cash cows split cleanly into two groups. The ones with a clear role scored well and are already making money. The ones without one are going backwards.

Supercoach NBA prices before and after Week 1

The winners. Yaxel Lendeborg (67, break-even 22) and Cameron Boozer (62, break-even 24) are up $730k and $610k. Golden State are short on bodies and are leaning on Lendeborg. Boozer started a bit inefficiently and still nearly tripled his break-even.

The one I got wrong. Caleb Wilson scored 64 and is up $660k. I warned people off him after a slow preseason. His minutes were real, and that turned out to matter more than his preseason efficiency. If you backed him, well played.

The steady ones. Keaton Wagler (46, +$380k), Darius Acuff (36, +$240k) and Darryn Peterson (34, +$190k). Not exciting, but they’re playing, and they’re rising.

The slow starts. Bennett Stirtz scored 2 points in three games and Christian Anderson 0, and both have dropped close to $300k. Aday Mara scored 19 and is flat. Mara was the best per-minute rookie in preseason, but OKC aren’t giving him the minutes yet. Stirtz and Anderson are the ones I’d move first.

The missing. AJ Dybantsa, the No.1 pick and in more than half of teams, missed Week 1 with an ankle injury. His price hasn’t moved, and he’s expected back for Week 2.

Callbacks to the preseason guide

A few calls from my preseason guide are worth revisiting after one week.

Domantas Sabonis was the top scorer of Week 1. 116 points. I had him under solid options on the discount rack. He played only 19 games last season before a torn meniscus, so he was priced at 24.5 when a healthy Sabonis is a 30-plus player. He’s one of the biggest price risers of the week, up $760k to $16.79M, and he’s in only about 2% of teams.

Walker Kessler scored 88. He was my other solid option. Five games last season before a torn labrum, priced off that, and now starting at centre for the Lakers. He’s up $290k. With Luka and Reaves, that’s three Lakers in the week’s top ten.

The rest of the guide’s calls are covered above. Haliburton was a slam dunk, Reaves was a summer-mover buy, Maxey was the Week 1 exception to my Philly warning, and Jalen Johnson was the key to my starting 15.

Not everything landed. Tatum was my other slam dunk and only played two games for 53. And the guide’s bench centre, Mo Bamba, didn’t play at all. But on the whole, the discount rack is doing what it was meant to.

What it means for Week 2

Nine teams play four games in Week 2: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Cleveland, Golden State, Houston, Indiana, the Lakers and Minnesota. Phoenix only plays two.

You get three trades every week (four with a boost), and they don’t carry over, so use them. Here’s where I’d be looking:

  • Giannis to Jalen Johnson. Both are PF/C. After the price changes, Johnson is $1.17M cheaper ($20.37M against $21.54M), and Atlanta play four games in Weeks 2 and 3 to Miami’s three and four. It’s a sideways swap on talent and a clear step up on schedule.
  • Rui out for a four-game forward. Rui has dropped to $7.76M. Tari Eason at Houston ($9.35M) is the cheap four-game option.
  • Stirtz, Anderson, and Phoenix bench players are out. Stirtz and Christian Anderson are losing money, and Phoenix only have two games. Move them on for a rookie who’s actually playing.
  • Jokic, if you’re ever getting him. He’s $440k cheaper, and that ends after this week.
  • Sabonis and Ty Jerome are tempting, but wait. Both only have three games in Week 2, and they’ve already risen around $700k each. Let them prove Week 1 wasn’t a one-off.

On captaincy, Luka is the safe call with four games. Jalen Johnson also has four, so if you want a zag like Maxey was in Week 1, he’s the one.

I’d be careful with Anthony Edwards. Minnesota has four games, but he was favouring his right knee today, the same knee that gave him trouble last season. He hasn’t been ruled out, but check the injury report before you trade him in, and don’t hand him the armband.

Week 1 was a reminder that schedule matters as much as talent in this game. Let me know how your week went in the comments.

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