Tim Williams
SC Playbook founder, 2nd NRL 2020, 43rd BBL 21/22'
Last year's NRL SuperCoach runner-up Tim Williams picks his top 17 at the Panthers, including analysis and buy rating of every player.
Pre-season Squad BreakdownLast year’s grand finalists Penrith enter the season as strong title contenders and they’re again blessed with SuperCoach talent.
You can make a case for most of their starting side, while there’s a host of genuine guns across varying positions.
Leading into the season we’ll take a look at every club’s predicted 17 to start the year, providing SuperCoach analysis on every single player as well as a rating for their round 1 buy credentials.
Here’s how we think Penrith will line up for the opener and whether or not it’s worth investing in their squad to kick-off the season.
If there’s a player who may miss the opening round or two, we’ve added them to the 17 with analysis for SuperCoach purposes.
Obviously there’s plenty to play out during the pre-season that’ll alter starting sides and buy ratings, so we’ll update this as frequently as possible as it all unfolds.
The Panthers play the first bye round and will sit out Round 17.
Click on the player to reveal their analysis and Round 1 buy rating.
*Scroll down to the bottom of the page for a key on all SuperCoach relevant abbreviations.
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Prop
Hooker
Prop
Second-row
Second-row
Lock
Fullback
Wing
Centre
Centre
Wing
5/8
Halfback
BENCH
Tyrone May $326,400 // 5/8-CTW // 2020 Ave: // Rd 1 buy rating: *2/10
May started at centre in the grand final meaning he could obviously start the year in the position.
While I think it’ll be Naden, it won’t surprise me one bit if it’s May.
If he does start he becomes an interesting proposition, although it’s at an awkward price.
However, even then the numbers aren’t enticing.
He played four 80 minutes games at centre last season for scores of 41, 23, 36 and 40, ewww.
Further to that, I think the left edge of Luai, Crichton and To’o will see far more ball than the right edge, despite Cleary’s presence.
*Rating to be reconsidered if starting.
Kurt Capewell $423,900 // 2RF-CTW // 2020 Ave: 53.2 // Rd 1 buy rating: 2/10
Capewell played just five games last season due to injury.
He’s a chance of starting in the back-row following his Origin form, but it seems hard to displace Martin or Kikau based on last year’s success.
It’s a conundrum for Ivan Cleary, but also reflects the strength of the roster.
Capewell started three games in the back-row last season for 80 minutes, scoring 91, 62 and 89 with three tries in the process.
If we get word he starts and will play 80 then he becomes a massive option at the price, but I can’t really see how it’ll happen barring back-row injuries in the pre-season.
*Rating to be reconsidered if starting.
Matt Eisenhuth $524,600 // 2RF-FRF // 2020 Ave: 59.2 // Rd 1 buy rating: 2/10
Eisenhuth is a very solid scorer when given minutes, but they’ve been inconsistent in recent years at the Tigers.
Last season he averaged 58MPG for 59PPG at an output of 1.01PPM.
He scored at a very high 53BPG, and much like JFH his output isn’t in anyway reliant on attacking stats, so you know what you’ll get if you can work out his minutes.
Even if starting though I can’t see him upping his 58 minutes from last season though, and he’s well over $500k so it’s a pass.
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Spencer Leniu $218,500 // FRF // 2020 Ave: 24.7 // Rd 1 buy rating: 4/10
20-year-old Leniu is loaded with potential and is a decent cheapie prospect having played 12 games from the bench last season.
Like the rest of the bench, I can’t see how his minutes will increase significantly enough to warrant buying even at the price.
However, if there is a shortage of cheapies he may be an option as a slow-burning cash cow.
He’s a MASSIVE pre-season watch. If he dominates in the trials, which he’s capable of, it could force Cleary into giving him more game time.
At this stage he’s a no, but this could easily change before Round 1.
OTHERS
Brent Naden $459,500 // CTW // 2020 Ave: 51.9 // Rd 1 buy rating: 4/10
Naden has been made unavailable for the opening month of the season by Ivan Cleary.
I had him fighting for the starting centre spot alongside recruit Paul Momirovski and Tyrone May who started at centre in the grand final.
Naden is now out, and rookie playmaker Matt Burton has entered the frame for the spot after being named at centre for the trial game.
Round 1 teams will be one to monitor.
Naden played 16 games last season and scored 12 tries, and I’m not convinced he’ll keep this up if he regains his starting spot, although in this Penrith side outside Nathan Cleary it’s obviously possible.
With job security issues on return, and 26BPG, I have To’o and Crichton well ahead of him in the SuperCoach pecking order.
May, Burton and Momirovski all become options though depending on who wins the starting spot.
SUPERCOACH TERMINOLOGY KEY
MPG = Minutes per game
PPG = Points per game
PPM = Points per minute
BPG = Base per game (point accrued in tackles + runs + missed tackles)
POD = Point of difference
BREAKEVEN (B/E) = The score a player must record to earn a price rise.
*Please note all our stats are taken from the geniuses at nrlsupercoachstats.com
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Hi Tim, regarding the prop forward rotation. JFH minutes in 2020 were down 8 minutes from 2019 due to the ball-in-play for a longer percentage of total game time.
I see JFH loosing more minutes this season also because the new rules will likely speed the game up even more.
Jimmy Tamou leaves a 43 minute hole that has to be filled.
Therefore, due to the lack of depth in the props. I see the rotation thus:-
JFH: 50 minutes
M. Leota: 50 minutes
S. Leniu: 40 minutes
Other: 20 minutes
Leota and Leniu are set to make $100g each imo. But feel free to keep a lid on this.😊
Hey Rob,
Great analysis mate.
Too late on keeping it on the down low though, it’s public now!
Yep I suppose it’ll come down to JFH. If he loses his 8 minutes than it’s logical that’s it’s split between Leniu and Leota, I’m not convinced he will, but it’s possible, especially early on in the year.
I don’t think Leota will get to 50 minutes, I think 45 would be more likely, which makes him tempting with 1.19PPM.
I’m not sure how much upside there is, but if he does get to 50 minutes he’ll be a huge play.
I’d be more tempted in Leniu if he can get 30+ minutes at the price.
Great shouts, cheers.
– TW