NRL Round 1 team lists: Supercoach squad analysis

The NRL season is officially underway with an outstanding opening weekend in Las Vegas.

Now we have a full set of team lists to run with.

Months of NRL team predictions and Supercoach squad tinkering comes down to this this week.

By Sunday evening at 6pm our full squads will be locked and loaded.

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The Cooma Stallions had a decent opening weekend, headlined by strong returns from Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Corey Horsburgh.

Nicho Hynes went okay with 50 points considering it was against the four-time Premiers, although he didn’t goal-kick which is extremely concerning and hopefully changes by round 2 with two weeks to recover from groin tightness suffered in the trials.

I avoided Nathan Cleary in favour of Tom Duffy, so far so good on that front after the Prince of Penrith delivered just 62 points which could very easily have been more.

Luke Metcalf capitulated with just 12 points, hopefully he bounces back following a tough night out in Vegas.

Let’s get stuck into the NRL Supercoach analysis for the round 1 teams, with squads courtesy of Fox Sports.

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ROOSTERS v BRONCOS

Thursday, 8pm, Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Mark Nawaqanitawase 4. Robert Toia 5. Dominic Young 6. Sandon Smith 7. Chad Townsend 8. Lindsay Collins 9. Connor Watson 10. Naufahu Whyte 11. Angus Crichton 12. Victor Radley 13. Nat Butcher

Bench: 14. Zach Dockar-Clay 15. Siua Wong 16. Blake Steep 17. Salesi Foketi

Reserves: 18. Hugo Savala 19. Taylor Losalu 20. Ethan King 21. Fetalaiga Pauga 22. Makahesi Makatoa

Analysis: Mark Nawaqanitawase and cheapie Robert Toia start in the centres, note though there’s still no sign of Billy Smith who is due back in coming weeks. Lock in Toia.

The 20-year-old play six games in NSW Cup last season at centre where he had four tries, one assist and three linebreaks.

He busted 42 tackles at 7 per game which is incredible, while he also had six offloads in his final three games.

He looks a viable play in 17s this week too.

Sandon Smith is at five-eighth as expected and is a must-have in my opinion.

Naufahu Whyte starts at prop and becomes a mid-range 2RF-FRF play at $367k, do note though Spencer Leniu is suspended and will return in round three which puts a question mark around minutes.

Put a line through Siua Wong after being named on the bench.

Zach Dockar-Clay may take some minutes off Connor Watson at hooker, however Watson may shift into the running forward role at that point and should still see a minimum of 60-65 minutes, hopefully more.

In four starting games at hooker last season, all 70+ minutes, he averaged 62.25 points per game with 55.75 base per game.

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Broncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Deine Mariner 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Ben Hunt 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Patrick Carrigan 9. Cory Paix 10. Payne Haas 11. Jack Gosiewski 12. Jordan Riki 13. Kobe Hetherington

Bench: 14. Billy Walters 15. Corey Jensen 16. Xavier Willison 17. Brendan Piakura

Reserves: 18. Tyson Smoothy 19. Delouise Hoeter 20. Martin Taupau 21. Benjamin Te Kura 22. Jaiyden Hunt

Analysis: Gehamat Shibasaki wins the centre spot of the injured Kotoni Staggs, at $232k he’s a strong cheapie option. Buy.

Cory Paix wins the starting role, but with Billy Walters on the bench they’re likely to share the role. Paix may be okay, but Blake Mozer is also due back from injury in a few weeks time.

While he’s a bit more expensive, I feel Peter Mamouzelos is the better buy of the cheapie hookers.

Jack Gosiewski starts on the edge at $232k, however Brendan Piakura on the bench suggests he will likely share the role.

The Goz needs to be playing pretty close to 80 minutes to warrant buying, I don’t think he’ll get this with Piakura on the bench so I’d avoid.

If he comes out and plays 80 the first two rounds and kills it he’s an easy downgrade from an underperforming back-rower, but if he plays limited minutes or drops to the bench he’ll become a headache.

Kobe Hetherington at $338k starts at lock and is a cheapie option, although the four forward bench isn’t ideal for minutes upside.

Among a relatively ordinary cheapie 2RF crop, I do feel like he’s one of the safer options perhaps with little upside.

He should get 50-60 minutes which is an uptick on his 40 last year, he looked great in the trials and has a strong work rate.

His PPM is very poor at 0.86 last year, while he offloaded three times in 23 games and busted just 22 tackles. 

I don’t mind the buy, just don’t expect anything spectacular.

I don’t mind Arthars as a buy at $341k in what should be an improved Broncos outfit, but the numbers aren’t great.

He averaged just 35 points per game last season with a very ordinary 21 in base.

The season prior he averaged 37 points per game with only 18 in base, in a team that went within minutes of winning a grand final.

Potential cheapie Ben Te Kura misses out.

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TIGERS v KNIGHTS

Friday, 6pm, Campbelltown Sports Stadium

Tigers: 1. Heath Mason 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Adam Doueihi 4. Solomona Faataape 5. Jeral Skelton 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Jarome Luai 8. Terrell May 9. Tallyn Da Silva 10. Fonua Pole 11. Samuela Fainu 12. Alex Seyfarth 13. Alex Twal

Bench: 14. Tristan Hope 15. Royce Hunt 16. Jack Bird 17. Sione Fainu

Reserves: 18. Latu Fainu 19. Charlie Staines 20. Kit Laulilii 21. Tony Sukkar 22. Reuben Porter

Analysis:

Not overly SC relevant, but Jahream Bula is out with Heath Mason playing fullback.

Api Koroisau is suspended for one week, meaning Tallyn Da Silva starts at hooker.

Cheapie prospect Jack Bird is on the bench putting a line through him in my eyes. He averaged 39 points in 66 minutes last season, granted that was at centre so it’s not a great guide.

Playing in the forwards in 2023 he averaged 55 points in 67 minutes.

If he wins a starting role and can increase minutes to 60+ he’ll be an option, but not until then.

Solomona Faataape ($355k) beats out potential cheapie Starford Toa for the centre spot, with Toa not named in the squad at all. Avoid both.

Royce Hunt is named on the bench and becomes a very tough fourth FRF to run.

He averaged 25 points in 24 minutes lat season, and 40 points in 29 minutes back in 2022.

With very few quality FRF cheapies available, I think he may be the best of a bad lot.

Hopefully he can increase towards 35 minutes and make some cash.

Alex Seyfarth is priced on a 44 point average from 48 minutes per game.

In three games of 80 minutes on the edge last season he averaged 63PPG with 45 in base. He looks a decent mid-range 2RF buy.

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Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. James Schiller 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Fletcher Sharpe 7. Jack Cogger 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Dylan Lucas 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Tyson Frizell

Bench: 14. Jayden Brailey 15. Jack Hetherington 16. Brodie Jones 17. Mathew Croker

Reserves: 18. Thomas Cant 19. Will Pryce 20. Logan Aoake 21. Jackson Hastings 22. Adam Elliott

Analysis:

No major surprises here, with Fletcher Sharpe and Jack Cogger confirmed as the new halves pairing. Sharpe presents some interest, but I’ll only be watching due to his huge $636k price tag.

Phoenix Crossland starts at hooker and is a cheapie option at $341k with dual HOK-HFB positioning, however Jayden Brailey has been named on the bench.

Crossland may shift into a middle running forward role and earn bigger minutes, but it’s risky.

He averaged 35 points in 56 minutes last season, so he’d need a major uptick in game time to justify buying. I’ll wait and watch the minutes.

The four forward bench also holds some slight concern for the 80 minute role of Dylan Lucas and Kai Pearce-Paul. They should play 80, but it’s not locked in.

Adam Elliott has been named in the 22 jumper which is also worth noting for that bench rotation.

In Lucas’ 11 games starting in the back-row he averaged 67.81, which suggests he’s a little undervalued on his starting price which is based on his 63 season average.

In those games he averaged 52.91 in base stats.

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DOLPHINS v RABBITOHS

Friday, 8:05pm, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Dolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Junior Tupou 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Felise Kaufusi 11. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 12. Max Plath 13. Tom Gilbert

Bench: 14. Kurt Donoghoe 15. Connelly Lemuelu 16. Mark Nicholls 17. Ray Stone

Reserves: 18. Kenny Bromwich 19. Josh Kerr 20. Sean O’Sullivan 21. Harrison Graham 22. Max Feagai

Analysis:

Junior Tupou starts on the wing and is a mid-range option at $381k, although there’s probably better picks at cheaper value.

The Jake Averillo at 5/8 experiment didn’t last long, with the utility at centre and Kodi Nikorima at five-eighth.

Max Plath has been named on the edge, big watch! Tom Gilbert ($462k) and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki ($368,200) also present round 1 value.

Gilbert is priced on a 47 point average after missing the entire 2024 season. The year prior he averaged 59 and based 51.

The four forward bench will put a question mark around the minutes of the entire pack.

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Rabbitohs: 1. Jye Gray 2. Isaiah Tass 3. Jack Wighton 4. Campbell Graham 5. Tyrone Munro 6. Cody Walker 7. Jamie Humphreys 8. Sean Keppie 9. Peter Mamouzelos 10. Davvy Moale 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jai Arrow 13. Lachlan Hubner

Bench: 14. Jayden Sullivan 15. Siliva Havili 16. Tallis Duncan 17. Tevita Tatola

Reserves: 18. Liam Le Blanc 19. Fletcher Myers 20. Jacob Host 21. Thomas Fletcher 22. Salesi Ataata

Analysis: Jamie Humphreys presents value at $305k, but with Lewis Dodd suspended and only HFB availability I think he’s an early watch.

If you’re going for a cheapie HFB, it’s Tom Duffy.

Cody Walker has been named in a boost for Ty Munro owners on the left edge.

Lachlan Hubner becomes a great cheapie prospect as a starting lock at just $232k, a gift from the original Supercoach Wayne Bennett.

Havning not played a trial, Supercoaches have gone cold on Campbell Graham who averaged 69 points per game in 2023 before missing the entirety of last season due to injury.

He’s been priced on an average of approximately 51.5 this season.

Minutes will be the concern for Peter Mamouzelos who finally gets a starting opportunity with the departure of Damien Cook.

I don’t think his job security is great and there’s no guarantee he’ll get 80 minutes. He could quite easily play 50-60 minutes in a job share moving forward.

If we get word he’ll be an 80-minute hooker it’ll change my view on him entirely.

He did have one game of 80 minutes last season for a score of 73, with 53 in base which is excellent.

If this was the norm he’d be a must-have, but I do worry it’s a one-off.

In other big minute games last season he produced:

• 50 points in 55 minutes with 34 in base
• 68 points in 59 minutes with 34 in base
• 48 points in 63 minutes with 28 in base

The scoring is quality, but he had major attacking stats in all of these.

I think he’s a solid buy, with a few red flags.

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DRAGONS v BULLDOGS

Saturday, 5:30pm, Jubilee Oval, Sydney

Dragons: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Mathew Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Valentine Holmes 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Kyle Flanagan 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Toby Couchman 9. Damien Cook 10. Emre Guler 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Jack de Belin

Bench: 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Ryan Couchman 16. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 17. Hamish Stewart

Reserves: 18. Dylan Egan 19. Tyrell Sloan 20. Lyhkan King-Togia 21. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga 22. Tom Eisenhuth

Analysis: Cheapie Sione Finau misses out on the wing spot and isn’t in the squad, but note he did have a concussion in that game so perhaps this is why?

He also hasn’t been named in NSW Cup so he may play in round 2.

Christian Tuipulotu and Mat Feagai are the wingers. Watch for news this week around Finau as he may still be a cheapie buy.

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That being said, the Dragons have the bye in round 3 and Storm in round 4, so even if he plays round 2 he won’t see a price rise until round 5.

On that alone, just wait and watch.

Toby Couchman starts at prop and is a genuine option with a high work rate. I’m keen to see the minutes of the pack, as Damien Cook is expected to spend time at lock.

Couchman is a sneaky buy after averaging 49 points in 38 minutes at an excellent 1.31PPM last season. He had a base of 39 in that period.

If he can get an uptick in minutes to 45+ he could earn some decent cash and be a reliable scorer.

Potential cheapie Loko Pasifiki Tonga misses the 17.

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Bulldogs: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Blake Wilson 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Samuel Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Kurt Mann

Bench: 14. Bailey Hayward 15. Sitili Tupouniua 16. Harry Hayes 17. Jaeman Salmon

Reserves: 19. Blake Taaffe 20. Kurtis Morrin 21. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 22. Luke Smith 23. Ratu Rinakama

Analysis: The Bulldogs are named pretty well as expected, Harry Hayes wins a bench spot.

Talk all pre-season has been that Sitili Tupouniua may steal minutes off Jacob Preston on the edge, it seems strange in my mind but when there’s smoke there’s often fire.

While Preston isn’t on my radar, I think it’s potentially enough to warrant steering clear until we see him lock into an 80 minute role.

He averaged 62 points in 67 minutes last season as a result of a few injuries at different stages.

In six 80 minute games he averaged 75 points.

He also scored 100 points against Manly in round 26 in just 62 minutes.

In his debut season in 2023 he averaged 65.64 in 14 games of 80 minutes.

Keep in mind the suspended Josh Curran is still to come back into this team next week.

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SEA EAGLES v COWBOYS

Saturday, 7:35pm, Brookvale Oval, Sydney

Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Jazz Tevaga 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jake Trbojevic

Bench: 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Corey Waddell 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Toafofoa Sipley

Reserves: 18. Clayton Faulalo 19. Dean Matterson 20. Gordon Chan Kum Tong 21. Jakob Arthur 22. Josh Aloiai

Analysis: Jazz Tevaga starts at hooker, but with numerous hooking options and Lachy Croker due back in a few weeks I’d avoid.

Siosiua Taukeiaho starts at prop but is very highly priced at $453k following his Super League stint. Watch.

Lehi Hopoate and Jason Saab win wing spots, with Tommy Talau not in the squad.

I’m keen on Reuben Garrick who should benefit from a soft draw for Manly to begin the season.

His season average of 70 is deceiving as he had three injury impacted games for a total of 55 minutes.

Remove those and he averages 79.16 for the season, while his base elevates from 32 to 35.

Disregarding those three injured games, he averaged 50 points per game in base and goalkicking alone.

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Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Braidon Burns 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Thomas Duffy 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Sam McIntyre 11. John Bateman 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter

Bench: 14. Karl Lawton 15. Harrison Edwards 16. Griffin Neame 17. Coen Hess

Reserves: 18. Kai O’Donnell 19. Jake Clifford 20. Thomas Mikaele 21. Jaxson Paulo 22. Jason Taumalolo

Analysis: Tom Duffy wins the starting halfback spot, with Jake Clifford named on the extended bench which suggests he was fit for selection. Pop the champagne owners!

In QLD Cup last season he played 22 games, scoring five tries and setting up 33.

Cheapie Jaxon Purdue is confirmed at centre and starts at just $257k, buy.

In three 80 minute games last season he averaged 56.3 points per game, including two tries and an assist. This also included a sin-bin.

Sam McIntyre starts at prop and presents some value at $396k, but with a four forward bench he’s a watch only for me.

Could John Bateman bounce back to his best this season?

He looks likely to play 80 minutes on the edge due to the injury to Heilum Luki.

He’s priced on a 53 point average from 71 minutes at the Tigers last season.

In nine 80 minute games last season he averaged 61.78 points, at a club he was seemingly unhappy to be at.

He had a base of 60+ twice in those games, and scored no tries and only had one try-assist.

He looms as a genuine option ahead of round 1.

Jason Taumalolo has been named in the reserves as he looks to return from a pre-season injury, this places more uncertainty over the minutes of the entire pack.

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STORM v EELS

Sunday, 4:05pm, AAMI Park, Melbourne

Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. William Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero

Bench: 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Lazarus Vaalepu

Reserves: 18. Grant Anderson 19. Bronson Garlick 20. Joe Chan 21. Sualauvi Faalogo 22. Kane Bradley

Analysis: Ryan Papenhuyzen has been named at fullback despite an injury concern in a Storm outfit that’s named as expected.

Jack Howarth interests me, in his nine 80 minute games last season he averaged 52.88 points.

Priced on his 44 point average, there’s room for improvement for a player set for his first full NRL season.

Cam Munster had his poorest Supercoach season in a long time in 2024, averaging just 62 points per game due to niggling injuries.

He’s been a 70+ averaging player most years, including an 81 points average in 2022.

He put injury concerns aside as he looked to move freely in the side’s trial loss to the Cowboys.

The Storm have the bye in round 2 which is a bit of an inconvenience, but it shouldn’t deter you if you’re keen enough on their contingent.

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Eels: 1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Sean Russell 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Zac Lomax 5. Jake Tago 6. Dylan Brown 7. Ronald Volkman 8. Joe Ofahengaue 9. Brendan Hands 10. Junior Paulo 11. Jack Williams 12. Kelma Tuilagi 13. J’maine Hopgood

Bench: 14. Ryley Smith 15. Matt Doorey 16. Ryan Matterson 17. Charlie Guymer

Reserves: 18. Joash Papali’i 19. Jordan Samrani 20. Toni Mataele 21. Sam Tuivaiti 22. Joey Lussick

Analysis: Jake Tago starts on the wing with Josh Addo-Carr suspended.

Mitch Moses is the huge omission due to an injury niggle, with Ronald Volkman to start at halfback.

Potential cheapie Brendan Hands is a no-go with rookie hooker Ryley Smith named on the bench in a likely job share.

Kelma Tuilagi ($433k) and Jack Williams ($455k) are the edge back-row pairing and present value, but how secure are minutes and role? Not great, especially with Ryan Matterson on the bench.

With two hookers named, I don’t mind Charlie Guymer as a cheapie at $232k although it’ll likely be a very slow burn for cash.

Guymer played two games last season with output of:

• 43 points in 45 minutes, with 37 in base
• 37 points in 41 minutes, with 37 in base