Random Stats Guy
SC Playbook Contributor. Stats man on About Even
The Random Stats Guy analyses the player ownership of the top 1% of NRL Supercoach teams in Round 6
UncategorizedTLT delivered another onslaught of team changes ahead of Round 7 of NRL Supercoach, with the main position impacted being 2RFS.
The popular David Fifita was dealt a huge blow with a hamstring injury, sidelining him for six weeks; Dylan Lucas is out for a similar time with a throat injury, and Joe Chan‘s half-time interaction with Bellyache is making owners panic.
Let’s see how the top 1% of Supercoaches have responded to the Round 7 team lists.
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Price | Own % | OwnC % | Avg | BE |
| Sua Fa’alogo | $730,900 | 94.7% | -2.7% | 96 | 108 |
| Tom Trbojevic | $720,900 | 63.8% | 1.8% | 84 | 82 |
| Dylan Edwards | $721,300 | 6.3% | -0.6% | 78 | 49 |
| Keano Kini | $589,400 | 25.6% | 13.3% | 73 | -9 |
| James Tedesco | $714,300 | 12.6% | 10.3% | 71 | 103 |
| Scott Drinkwater | $808,700 | 12.4% | 5.0% | 79 | 56 |
| Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | $694,600 | 1.0% | -0.4% | 75 | 68 |
| Jahream Bula | $682,700 | 0.7% | 0.4% | 78 | 25 |
| Kaeo Weekes | $585,000 | 0.6% | -0.2% | 65 | 79 |
| Hugo Peel | $201,400 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0 | 22 |
| Reece Walsh | $746,800 | 0.3% | -0.8% | 67 | 111 |
| Matthew Dufty | $409,000 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0 | 45 |
| Jye Gray | $568,600 | 0.1% | -1.2% | 54 | 123 |
| William Kennedy | $570,600 | 0.1% | -0.6% | 59 | 50 |
| Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | $559,300 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 67 | 26 |
| Kalyn Ponga | $607,800 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 85 | 28 |
| Liam Ison | $216,800 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0 | 24 |
| Motu Pasikala | $201,400 | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0 | 22 |
| Connor Tracey | $540,900 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55 | 93 |
| Isaiah Iongi | $598,600 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 57 | 134 |
Well, well, well… looks like some Supercoaches are crawling on their hands and knees back to Keano Kini, after his best performance this season against the Eels.
If you’re looking for a cash grab, I get it. But with the Warriors twice and the Sharks to come in the next month, his 157 might not be replicated.
James Tedesco is the 4th most traded-in player for the top 1%, with 176 new owners.
Knights, Dragons, Broncos, Titans, Cowboys is a nice little run for last year’s Dally M medalist.
However, with DCE and Sam Walker running the show, Tedesco has been unable to chime in for a try assist or try in the last 3 games.
In saying that, this draw could see him join the scorers list or at least have a hand in a few tries, which could see his 71 average rise.
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Price | Own % | OwnC % | Avg | BE |
| Latrell Mitchell | $746,900 | 94% | 5.5% | 96 | 32 |
| Tom Chester | $421,300 | 92% | 5.8% | 67 | -32 |
| Heamasi Makasini | $339,400 | 87% | -3.2% | 46 | 29 |
| Setu Tu | $328,400 | 77% | 2.7% | 57 | -32 |
| Herbie Farnworth | $792,200 | 77% | 0.3% | 82 | 87 |
| Sialetili Faeamani | $330,600 | 76% | 1.1% | 47 | -9 |
| Thomas Jenkins | $893,200 | 27% | -0.7% | 104 | 103 |
| Faaletino Tavana | $201,400 | 22% | -2.4% | 46 | -25 |
| Araz Nanva | $201,400 | 22% | -2.4% | 46 | -25 |
| Moses Leo | $294,500 | 17% | -8.4% | 44 | 55 |
| Casey McLean | $736,300 | 15% | -1.0% | 74 | 70 |
| Mark Nawaqanitawase | $690,400 | 9% | 4.9% | 71 | 36 |
| Kayal Iro | $617,200 | 9% | -5.7% | 59 | 75 |
| Jacob Kiraz | $653,500 | 7% | 0.3% | 65 | 101 |
| Patrick Herbert | $261,000 | 6% | 5.7% | 90 | -32 |
| Valentine Holmes | $639,000 | 5% | -3.9% | 64 | 127 |
| Luke Laulilii | $351,300 | 5% | -0.1% | 56 | 24 |
| Jamayne Isaako | $710,500 | 5% | -1.0% | 78 | 58 |
| Dominic Young | $666,100 | 5% | -1.7% | 79 | 77 |
| Fletcher Hunt | $428,900 | 4% | -0.5% | 57 | 23 |
Patrick Herbert starred for the Tigers in his first NRL game back, scoring a try, making an assist and finishing with 90 Supercoach points.
He is in the top 10 most traded-in players for the top 1%, as he will get a nice price increase if he plays 3 games.
But that’s a big “if”, considering the Tigers’ backline has been shuffled almost every game. Starford To’a returned from injury in reserve grade in Round 5 and could challenge Herbert for that right centre spot.
Supercoaches have grown impatient with Moses Leo, who has failed to make the money that owners would have hoped.
Now that he has been dropped from the starting side, he is the 6th most traded-out player this week.
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Price | Own % | OwnC % | Avg | BE |
| Jonah Pezet | $363,900 | 60.10% | -14.0% | 43 | 53 |
| Jaxon Purdue | $712,800 | 47.90% | -3.2% | 77 | 69 |
| Cody Walker | $456,400 | 39.70% | 11.7% | 64 | 3 |
| Jarome Luai | $465,700 | 19.50% | 18.6% | 89 | -26 |
| Cameron Munster | $554,800 | 11.30% | -5.8% | 58 | 76 |
| Joash Papalii | $301,300 | 8.20% | -0.9% | 25 | 16 |
| Braydon Trindall | $551,400 | 5.90% | -3.0% | 69 | 81 |
| Fletcher Sharpe | $640,100 | 4.60% | -0.3% | 57 | 94 |
| Jake Clifford | $745,000 | 4.60% | 1.4% | 82 | 36 |
| Brandon Wakeham | $201,400 | 1.80% | 0.0% | 19 | 23 |
| Matt Burton | $627,500 | 1.60% | 0.4% | 67 | 89 |
| Reece Foley | $201,400 | 1.20% | 0.5% | 0 | 22 |
| Ethan Strange | $574,200 | 1.10% | 0.1% | 60 | 14 |
| John Fineanganofo | $201,400 | 1.00% | -0.2% | 0 | 22 |
| Kade Reed | $201,400 | 1.00% | 0.1% | 0 | 22 |
| Ezra Mam | $574,200 | 0.50% | -0.4% | 58 | 10 |
| Sandon Smith | $517,300 | 0.50% | 0.0% | 57 | 30 |
| Blaize Talagi | $483,300 | 0.20% | -0.1% | 47 | 80 |
| Daly Cherry-Evans | $582,000 | 0.20% | 0.0% | 59 | 43 |
| Hugo Savala | $452,300 | 0.20% | 0.2% | 49 | 50 |
Jarome Luai is the most traded-in player this week, as he returns from injury for the Tigers against a depleted Broncos side.
He has averaged 89 points in his first two games with 115 vs Cows and 63 in 66 mins against Souths. His breakeven of -26 will earn him an $81k price rise.
At $465k, he is an achievable upgrade from Jonah Pezet, however, most Supercoaches in the top 1% have banked some cash and traded him in for Joe Chan and David Fifita.
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Price | Own % | OwnC % | Avg | BE |
| Nathan Cleary | $865,500 | 92.90% | -0.4% | 89 | 112 |
| Jayden Campbell | $772,000 | 92.90% | -0.4% | 89 | 112 |
| Tanah Boyd | $716,300 | 21.20% | 8.9% | 94 | 60 |
| Daniel Atkinson | $295,700 | 20.60% | -1.5% | 50 | 25 |
| Ethan Sanders | $347,600 | 20.10% | -11.3% | 36 | 38 |
| Adam Doueihi | $731,000 | 7.50% | 1.0% | 90 | 114 |
| Nicholas Hynes | $832,800 | 5.40% | 3.2% | 95 | 66 |
| Joey Walsh | $235,600 | 5.40% | 3.2% | 95 | 66 |
| Sam Walker | $541,100 | 1.90% | 1.6% | 54 | 40 |
| Jahrome Hughes | $687,900 | 1.40% | -1.9% | 71 | 147 |
| Jock Madden | $435,700 | 0.60% | -0.4% | 66 | 1 |
| Thomas Dearden | $621,800 | 0.40% | 0.3% | 67 | 21 |
| Lachlan Galvin | $585,600 | 0.40% | 0.2% | 68 | 50 |
| Jake Elliott | $201,400 | 0.30% | 0.0% | 0 | 22 |
| Tom Duffy | $235,600 | 0.30% | 0.3% | 91 | -38 |
| Apa Twidle | $201,400 | 0.20% | -0.1% | 88 | -43 |
| Jonah Glover | $201,400 | 0.20% | 0.1% | 0 | 22 |
| Thomas Dearden | $578,300 | 0.20% | 0.2% | 62 | 37 |
| Zane Harrison | $201,400 | 0.20% | 0.2% | 0 | 22 |
| Mitchell Moses | $460,300 | 0.10% | -0.4% | 46 | 56 |
Nathan Cleary and Jayden Campbell are the standout halfbacks duo that the majority of the top 1% are rolling with at the moment.
Whilst Cleary’s credentials are well-known, Campbell has been quietly chipping away with scores of 97, 97, 70 and 116 – scoring a try or having an assist in each of those games.
Nicho Hynes and Daniel Atkinson both feature in the most traded-out list.
Hynes is on a bye and is an easy jump to Campbell.
Whilst Atkinson hasn’t been scoring points in a woeful Dragons side, with a score of 19 in his role change to five-eighth last week.
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Price | Own % | OwnC % | Avg | BE |
| Harry Grant | $580,500 | 87.90% | -4.4% | 67 | 109 |
| Brandon Smith | $235,600 | 42.50% | -0.6% | 27 | 26 |
| Blayke Brailey | $660,900 | 27.00% | 8.1% | 76 | 54 |
| Benaiah Ioelu | $248,900 | 21.00% | -3.3% | 34 | 13 |
| Bailey Hayward | $348,500 | 5.80% | -0.1% | 39 | 35 |
| Reed Mahoney | $335,700 | 4.60% | 0.1% | 34 | 51 |
| Soni Luke | $249,400 | 2.90% | 2.9% | 32 | -14 |
| Harrison Graham | $330,600 | 1.00% | 0.0% | 39 | 39 |
| Phoenix Crossland | $443,400 | 1.00% | 0.5% | 51 | 34 |
| Reece Robson | $510,700 | 0.90% | -0.2% | 60 | 53 |
| Tallyn Da Silva | $283,800 | 0.60% | -0.4% | 31 | 45 |
| Damien Cook | $523,000 | 0.50% | -0.4% | 60 | 94 |
| Oliver Pascoe | $248,100 | 0.50% | 0.2% | 41 | -13 |
| Apisai Koroisau | $535,200 | 0.30% | 0.2% | 57 | 32 |
| Jake Simpkin | $412,000 | 0.30% | 0.1% | 47 | 34 |
| Freddy Lussick | $265,900 | 0.20% | -0.2% | 38 | -15 |
| Luke Sommerton | $235,600 | 0.20% | -0.1% | 15 | 38 |
| Cory Paix | $370,000 | 0.10% | -0.2% | 36 | 46 |
| Jared Haywood | $201,400 | 0.10% | 0.0% | 0 | 22 |
Another surge of Supercoaches have entered the top 1%, with Blayke Brailey as their hooker.
Whilst he isn’t a buy this round for non-owners due to the bye, he continues to average around 71; whilst his competing hooker Harry Grant has a 3RA of 51.
One to ponder over the weekend…
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Price | Own % | OwnC % | Avg | BE |
| Alex Twal | $662,500 | 62.90% | 10.4% | 80 | 47 |
| Taniela Paseka | $411,000 | 43.60% | -1.8% | 53 | 24 |
| Jackson Ford | $714,700 | 42.00% | 8.4% | 85 | 71 |
| Payne Haas | $761,900 | 34.70% | -1.0% | 63 | 34 |
| Stefano Utoikamanu | $547,500 | 16.20% | -2.7% | 63 | 66 |
| Myles Martin | $201,400 | 13.70% | 0.5% | 0 | 22 |
| Cooper Clarke | $302,700 | 11.20% | 3.7% | 40 | -16 |
| Terrell May | $755,400 | 9.20% | 4.4% | 81 | 49 |
| Thomas Flegler | $350,600 | 8.90% | 0.4% | 40 | 27 |
| Ethan Roberts | $201,400 | 7.60% | 0.1% | 0 | 22 |
| Keaon Koloamatangi | $607,200 | 4.40% | -2.0% | 63 | 91 |
| Simione Laiafi | $201,400 | 2.20% | 0.3% | 19 | 28 |
| Addin Fonua-Blake | $539,500 | 0.70% | -0.4% | 55 | 70 |
| Bunty Afoa | $235,600 | 0.70% | 0.1% | 0 | 26 |
| Naufahu Whyte | $551,500 | 0.50% | -0.4% | 58 | 10 |
| Joseph Tapine | $603,200 | 0.50% | -0.6% | 67 | 111 |
| Tui Kamikamica | $284,100 | 0.50% | 0.0% | 57 | 30 |
| Thomas Mikaele | $355,800 | 0.50% | 0.5% | 80 | 19 |
| Blake Lawrie | $347,100 | 0.40% | 0.1% | 43 | 38 |
Alex Twal is on track to be the surprise packet of NRL Supercoach this season.
Scores of 83, 86 and 97 in his last 3 games – done the true Alex Twal way, no tries!
His front row partner, Terrell May is also startng to make the most of his reduced minutes with scores of 90 and 108 in his last 2 games.
He is a surprising POD play at 9% ownership for the top 1%.
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Price | Own % | OwnC % | Avg | BE |
| Arama Hau | $568,400 | 95.50% | 1.0% | 71 | 52 |
| Noah Martin | $511,400 | 94.20% | -0.9% | 73 | 31 |
| Heilum Luki | $607,300 | 80.90% | 8.7% | 78 | 25 |
| Simi Sasagi | $666,500 | 75.60% | 15.2% | 83 | 23 |
| Ativalu Lisati | $269,400 | 54.30% | 17.3% | 83 | -77 |
| Ryan Couchman | $335,100 | 45.60% | 12.9% | 66 | -20 |
| Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | $640,400 | 39.10% | 2.1% | 82 | 57 |
| Trey Mooney | $476,200 | 34.90% | -0.8% | 63 | 34 |
| David Fifita | $538,800 | 33.90% | -40.8% | 63 | 64 |
| Jesse Colquhoun | $475,200 | 32.40% | -1.2% | 59 | 28 |
| Isaah Yeo | $654,800 | 32.30% | -6.4% | 70 | 81 |
| Joe Chan | $529,500 | 31.10% | -54.7% | 66 | 101 |
| Kai Pearce-Paul | $737,900 | 21.30% | 5.3% | 88 | 52 |
| Jacob Preston | $645,700 | 19.50% | 15.9% | 78 | 41 |
| Hudson Young | $756,100 | 10.30% | 3.0% | 83 | 65 |
| Tallis Duncan | $594,900 | 9.20% | 8.7% | 64 | 6 |
| Cooper Bai | $331,700 | 8.80% | 0.4% | 42 | -4 |
| Jermaine McEwen | $501,000 | 8.80% | 0.4% | 42 | -4 |
| Isaiah Papali’i | $649,800 | 6.90% | -3.2% | 69 | 109 |
David Fifita’s 6-week hamstring diagnosis has sent shockwaves around the top 1% and has seen 2RFs dominant the most traded-in list.
Top of the pop is Ativalu Lisati, who is still a week away from returning from injury.
However, the Storm backrower is a great cash gen option with a -77 breakeven and price rise of $104k. He can also score points with 88 and 77 in both appearances this season.
Simi Sasagi is turning into a season keeper, with 3 consecutive scores over 95 points.
However, there is a twist for Simi, as he will likely move to left centre with Savelio Tamale dropping himself to NSW Cup.
Will his output be the same on the Raiders’ least favourable attacking side?
Jacob Preston is the 3rd most traded-in player, following a big score against Penrith of 118 points.
Whilst it was an impressive performance last week by the Dogs, can they keep it up?
Presto has scored 52, 43 and 43 in his last 3 games when he hasn’t crossed the chalk. So could be chasing points to me.
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