Random Stats Guy
SC Playbook Contributor. Stats man on About Even
The Random Stats Guy analyses the player ownership of the top 1% of NRL Supercoach teams in Round 13
NRLThe first major bye round is over, and we were lucky enough to have some popular players score handsomely with the reduced 13-man teams.
Scott Drinkwater (119), Moses Leo (114), Tom Chester (104), Toby Couchman (94) and the new HFB cheapie, Te Maire Martin (94) pleased over 30,000 owners in Round 12.
Although it was all high-scoring for some, with Sua Fa’alogo (57), Ativalu Lisati (49), Jaxon Purdue (29) and an injured Jacob Preston (5) letting many down.
However, with 7 games this week, Supercoaches are up about in the trading block with many hoping proven guns explode and cheapies step up throughout the Origin period.
Here is how the top 1% of Supercoaches have responded…
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Price | Own % | OwnC % | Avg | BE | Proj Pts |
| Scott Drinkwater | $707,800 | 75.30% | -0.2% | 88 | 148 | 85 |
| James Tedesco | $859,600 | 58.60% | -9.5% | 86 | 145 | 96 |
| Kalyn Ponga | $760,300 | 50.70% | -7.6% | 93 | 55 | 95 |
| Sua Fa’alogo | $585,400 | 49.40% | 1.4% | 73 | 151 | 88 |
| Reece Walsh | $603,700 | 23.10% | 16.0% | 69 | 53 | 68 |
| Dylan Edwards | $782,000 | 6.70% | -1.1% | 70 | 105 | 46 |
| Kaeo Weekes | $585,000 | 1.80% | -0.6% | 64 | 89 | 58 |
| Keano Kini | $609,300 | 0.90% | 0.1% | 62 | 97 | 79 |
| Hugo Peel | $201,400 | 0.80% | -0.9% | 30 | 10 | 34 |
| Motu Pasikala | $201,400 | 0.20% | 0.2% | 0 | 23 | 0 |
| Trai Fuller | $520,200 | 0.10% | 0.0% | 62 | 43 | BYE |
| Isaiah Iongi | $598,600 | 0.10% | -0.1% | 69 | 43 | 66 |
| Matthew Dufty | $389,600 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 89 | 4 | 50 |
| Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | $593,900 | 0.00% | -0.1% | 70 | 81 | BYE |
| Jahream Bula | $696,000 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 72 | 103 | – |
| Tom Trbojevic | $659,500 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 48 | 127 | 0 |
| Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | $569,600 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 62 | 78 | 61 |
| William Kennedy | $528,800 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 59 | 76 | 61 |
| Jye Gray | $470,800 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 0 | 54 | 48 |
| Daine Laurie | $432,000 | 0.00% | -0.1% | 50 | 60 | 44 |
Reece Walsh was a shock omission from the QLD Maroons’ team and, with Kalyn Ponga avoiding suspension in Game 1, he looks set to be available throughout the next two major bye rounds.
Not will he be available, but his draw looks very nice with Dragons, Titans, Rabbitohs, bye, Roosters and Sharks to come – 4 of those games at home!
He is $603k at the moment, but has a breakeven of 139 this week, so if you want to save some coin, you could get him at $540k in Round 14.
Whilst he won’t have him play every game in the next 6 weeks, it is worth noting that Walsh averages 78 with Payne Haas playing, as opposed to 58.9 without him.
Sua Fa’alogo is the most popular trade to Walsh, with the jump only costing Supercoaches $15k more.
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Price | Own % | OwnC % | Avg | BE | Proj Pts |
| Herbie Farnworth | $794,600 | 97.10% | -0.20% | 89 | 79 | 0 |
| Tom Chester | $636,300 | 96.90% | 1.80% | 71 | 59 | 76 |
| Greg Marzhew | $838,200 | 74.90% | -0.40% | 79 | 22 | 125 |
| Setu Tu | $514,900 | 58.80% | -1.20% | 60 | 55 | 62 |
| Jamayne Isaako | $827,200 | 49.70% | 2.50% | 83 | 155 | 0 |
| Kayal Iro | $793,400 | 45.30% | -2.80% | 73 | 151 | 88 |
| Jack Bostock | $611,300 | 38.10% | -0.60% | 83 | 60 | 0 |
| Jacob Kiraz | $612,700 | 28.80% | 21.70% | 69 | 53 | 68 |
| Heamasi Makasini | $333,000 | 26.90% | 0.50% | 42 | 52 | 41 |
| Jonathan Sua | $296,300 | 20.20% | -10.10% | 39 | 43 | 39 |
| Thomas Jenkins | $625,400 | 14.50% | -0.20% | 86 | 56 | 65 |
| Moses Leo | $370,100 | 13.80% | 4.80% | 56 | -47 | 50 |
| Reuben Garrick | $647,300 | 13.20% | -2.30% | 63 | 82 | 71 |
| Clayton Faulalo | $643,500 | 12.30% | 3.50% | 72 | -7 | 97 |
| Faaletino Tavana | $230,100 | 10.30% | -3.60% | 34 | 16 | 30 |
| Cody Ramsey | $251,900 | 10.10% | 3.10% | 43 | -27 | 46 |
| Casey McLean | $619,600 | 9.60% | -0.80% | 70 | 68 | 63 |
| Sialetili Faeamani | $466,300 | 7.60% | -4.90% | 51 | 31 | 0 |
| Latrell Mitchell | $1,053,800 | 7.30% | -6.20% | 110 | 149 | 0 |
| Tolutau Koula | $591,300 | 6.80% | -5.40% | 69 | 60 | 80 |
| Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | $615,800 | 5.60% | 0.50% | 64 | 15 | 53 |
Jacob Kiraz is back in the Supercoach conversation, as he punched out 109 points at fullback last week against the Storm.
84 points were made in base and power alone, thanks to 6 tackle breaks and 7 offloads.
The King is back!
His team-mate on the wing, Jonathan Sua, looks to have lost his spot in the side and is the most traded-out CTW this week.
Other than that, not too much to report on in the CTW category.
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Price | Own % | OwnC % | Avg | BE | Proj Pts |
| Te Maire Martin | $235,600 | 59.10% | 28.40% | 88 | -95 | 49 |
| Cody Walker | $469,500 | 39.60% | -0.90% | 58 | 45 | 0 |
| Jaxon Purdue | $495,900 | 29.90% | -4.70% | 61 | 99 | 40 |
| Fletcher Sharpe | $512,700 | 25.60% | 10.00% | 56 | 29 | 46 |
| Cameron Munster | $553,700 | 16.00% | -2.10% | 63 | -16 | 72 |
| Jonah Pezet | $363,900 | 15.20% | -17.10% | 43 | 58 | 35 |
| Jarome Luai | $503,400 | 7.20% | -1.20% | 62 | 76 | 50 |
| Jake Clifford | $673,100 | 6.90% | -0.10% | 75 | 102 | 114 |
| Joash Papalii | $445,600 | 4.00% | -0.40% | 42 | 13 | 55 |
| Daniel Atkinson | $273,600 | 3.10% | -1.10% | 34 | 29 | 22 |
| Kade Reed | $201,400 | 2.90% | -1.30% | 18 | 33 | 20 |
| Braydon Trindall | $481,100 | 1.30% | 0.00% | 60 | 69 | 42 |
| Hugo Savala | $547,200 | 1.20% | 0.10% | 60 | 55 | 81 |
| Matt Burton | $564,600 | 1.10% | 0.20% | 67 | 31 | 58 |
| John Fineanganofo | $201,400 | 1.10% | -0.40% | 0 | 23 | 0 |
| Ethan Strange | $610,100 | 0.90% | 0.10% | 62 | 97 | 79 |
| Reece Foley | $201,400 | 0.90% | -0.50% | 0 | 23 | 21 |
| Blaize Talagi | $626,700 | 0.90% | 0.10% | 60 | 60 | 92 |
| Ronald Volkman | $459,000 | 0.70% | -0.10% | 59 | 32 | 62 |
| Brandon Wakeham | $295,100 | 0.60% | -1.10% | 30 | 10 | 34 |
| Tyran Wishart | $223,600 | 0.30% | -0.50% | 28 | 17 | 23 |
Te Maire Martin added to his job security last week, scoring 2 tries and 94 points against the Dragons.
Luke Metcalf is listed in the extended squad this week, and Andrew Webster could screw a lot of Supercoaches over.
But hey, at least you’d be alongside 60% of the top 1% who will likely play Martin this week.
This week has seen more Supercoaches dump Jonah Pezet, with the out-of-favour half overlooked completely, despite Mitch Moses being ruled out with injury.
He is the 2nd most traded-out player this week for the top 1%.
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Price | Own % | OwnC % | Avg | BE | Proj Pts |
| Nathan Cleary | $936,600 | 93.40% | -0.90% | 97 | 101 | 118 |
| Nicholas Hynes | $875,400 | 79.70% | -10.80% | 96 | 134 | 89 |
| Jahrome Hughes | $626,900 | 6.80% | -1.10% | 70 | 105 | 46 |
| Ethan Sanders | $485,800 | 6.50% | -0.10% | 54 | 45 | 58 |
| Liam Sutton | $201,400 | 3.70% | 1.80% | 61 | -53 | 37 |
| Sam Walker | $714,600 | 3.70% | 0.00% | 70 | 105 | 68 |
| Jayden Campbell | $617,300 | 3.20% | 0.50% | 76 | 59 | 0 |
| Latrell Siegwalt | $201,400 | 1.80% | 0.10% | 76 | -83 | 0 |
| Lachlan Galvin | $663,600 | 1.40% | 0.60% | 73 | 56 | 68 |
| Adam Doueihi | $763,200 | 0.40% | -0.10% | 88 | 112 | 101 |
| Jamal Fogarty | $680,300 | 0.40% | 0.10% | 68 | 147 | 64 |
| Isaiya Katoa | $521,000 | 0.40% | 0.10% | 56 | 29 | 0 |
| Jonah Glover | $201,400 | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0 | 23 | 0 |
| Jake Elliott | $201,400 | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0 | 23 | 21 |
| Dylan Brown | $584,000 | 0.20% | 0.10% | 62 | 107 | 63 |
| Tanah Boyd | $559,800 | 0.10% | -0.20% | 73 | 101 | 50 |
| Adam Reynolds | $461,800 | 0.10% | 0.10% | 49 | 86 | 52 |
| Joey Walsh | $235,600 | 0.10% | -0.10% | 64 | -48 | 36 |
| Zac Herdegen | $201,400 | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0 | 23 | 21 |
| Niwhai Puru | $201,400 | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0 | 23 | 21 |
For the second consecutive week, Nathan Cleary and Nicho Hynes are both unavailable for Supercoaches.
A calf injury with an indefinite timeline for Hynes is enough uncertainty for some in the top 1% to trade him out.
With Nicho being most Supercoaches’ flex option, many have downgraded to Reece Walsh.
Liam Sutton has also picked up in interest with scores of 52 and 70 in his first two games of his NRL career.
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Price | Own % | OwnC % | Avg | BE | Proj Pts |
| Harry Grant | $698,700 | 91.70% | -0.60% | 76 | -9 | 85 |
| Oliver Pascoe | $504,500 | 56.30% | 1.50% | 53 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Smith | $266,000 | 25.00% | -1.10% | 39 | 1 | 0 |
| Blayke Brailey | $732,600 | 13.00% | -0.30% | 76 | 128 | 71 |
| Benaiah Ioelu | $248,900 | 5.60% | -0.40% | 34 | 17 | 24 |
| Reed Mahoney | $541,800 | 4.20% | 1.30% | 52 | 45 | 81 |
| Bailey Hayward | $343,100 | 1.00% | -0.20% | 39 | 47 | 31 |
| Reece Robson | $609,200 | 0.60% | 0.00% | 66 | 69 | 75 |
| Damien Cook | $567,200 | 0.50% | -0.10% | 65 | 44 | 69 |
| Apisai Koroisau | $595,400 | 0.40% | 0.30% | 60 | 69 | 63 |
| Freddy Lussick | $416,600 | 0.40% | 0.10% | 45 | 38 | 49 |
| Wayde Egan | $449,300 | 0.20% | -0.20% | 50 | 25 | 38 |
| Soni Luke | $354,500 | 0.20% | -0.10% | 34 | 44 | 41 |
| Bronson Garlick | $236,500 | 0.20% | 0.00% | 23 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeremy Marshall-King | $547,800 | 0.10% | 0.00% | 45 | 106 | 0 |
| Harrison Graham | $322,700 | 0.10% | 0.10% | 37 | 35 | 29 |
| Cory Paix | $405,200 | 0.10% | 0.00% | 41 | 45 | 54 |
| Tallyn Da Silva | $398,400 | 0.10% | -0.10% | 39 | 14 | 39 |
| Tristan Hope | $321,100 | 0.10% | -0.10% | 42 | 29 | 37 |
| Jayden Brailey | $267,800 | 0.10% | -0.20% | 23 | 17 | 30 |
Very little change in the hooker department.
Reed Mahoney is scoring tries for the Cowboys, which has seen him score 70+ points in 3 of his last 4 games.
In his last 5 games, he hasn’t scored under 50 points either.
However, with a breakeven of 45 this week, we could see him close to that $600k price by the end of Round 13.
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Price | Own % | OwnC % | Avg | BE | Proj Pts |
| Alex Twal | $791,800 | 89.90% | 1.10% | 85 | 101 | 86 |
| Jackson Ford | $809,300 | 75.30% | -0.20% | 88 | 148 | 85 |
| Taniela Paseka | $520,700 | 43.20% | 1.10% | 65 | 45 | 71 |
| Joseph Tapine | $638,800 | 38.90% | 4.20% | 58 | 40 | 42 |
| Terrell May | $800,000 | 36.10% | 7.70% | 59 | 106 | 79 |
| Myles Martin | $201,400 | 20.80% | -0.10% | 0 | 23 | 21 |
| Stefano Utoikamanu | $555,300 | 13.30% | 0.20% | 84 | 111 | 85 |
| Ethan Roberts | $201,400 | 9.30% | -1.50% | 50 | -2 | 26 |
| Saxon Pryke | $284,900 | 5.20% | -0.90% | 56 | 61 | 0 |
| Keaon Koloamatangi | $518,400 | 2.60% | -0.30% | 59 | 59 | 0 |
| Thomas Flegler | $320,200 | 2.40% | -0.50% | 36 | 56 | 0 |
| Thomas Mikaele | $488,600 | 1.80% | -0.10% | 52 | 38 | 59 |
| Simione Laiafi | $201,400 | 1.60% | -0.20% | 19 | 31 | 20 |
| Payne Haas | $680,800 | 1.10% | 1.10% | 68 | 129 | 72 |
| Leo Thompson | $576,000 | 1.10% | -0.10% | 63 | 65 | 67 |
| Sione Fainu | $344,100 | 0.40% | -0.50% | 37 | 42 | 43 |
| Naufahu Whyte | $507,600 | 0.40% | 0.00% | 56 | 26 | 55 |
| Bunty Afoa | $235,600 | 0.30% | 0.00% | 27 | 29 | 23 |
| James Fisher-Harris | $570,500 | 0.20% | 0.00% | 63 | 57 | 67 |
| Liam Henry | $452,300 | 0.20% | 0.10% | 64 | 27 | 51 |
Terrell May was overlooked for Origin Game 1, and with NSW’s win and Payne Haas back in the fold; it is unlikely he will miss the Tigers’ run of games throughout the Origin period.
Whilst some might be hesitant to run with two Tigers middles in their front row (Alex Twal the other), they will both have fixtures running till Round 23.
Speaking of Payne Haas, there has been little movement in his ownership numbers, despite being named to return this week.
The top 1% of Supercoaches know full well that it will be a disrupted next couple weeks with Haas coming in and out of Origin
Embed from Getty Images| Name | Price | Own % | OwnC % | Avg | BE | Proj Pts |
| Ativalu Lisati | $576,200 | 97.60% | -1.30% | 75 | 83 | 78 |
| Ryan Couchman | $546,500 | 92.40% | 2.90% | 69 | 37 | 69 |
| Heilum Luki | $625,800 | 81.30% | 3.90% | 72 | 72 | 82 |
| Toby Couchman | $704,100 | 54.70% | 8.30% | 74 | 52 | 87 |
| Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | $617,700 | 50.90% | 1.80% | 76 | 90 | 0 |
| Tallis Duncan | $654,600 | 34.80% | 1.10% | 71 | 79 | 0 |
| Kai Pearce-Paul | $634,200 | 30.10% | 14.80% | 78 | 53 | 80 |
| Xavier Willison | $608,700 | 22.10% | -2.20% | 59 | 106 | 79 |
| Zac Hosking | $518,500 | 20.20% | 2.70% | 53 | 23 | 51 |
| Erin Clark | $686,300 | 15.60% | 1.20% | 71 | 76 | 85 |
| Francis Manuleleua | $270,800 | 15.00% | -3.50% | 32 | 52 | 31 |
| Isaiah Papali’i | $641,700 | 13.00% | -0.20% | 73 | 22 | 83 |
| Isaah Yeo | $662,600 | 12.80% | -5.20% | 72 | 107 | 78 |
| Simi Sasagi | $763,600 | 10.90% | -3.90% | 81 | 138 | 75 |
| Haumole Olakau’atu | $764,700 | 10.10% | -3.00% | 82 | 73 | 90 |
| Trey Mooney | $623,300 | 8.40% | -1.40% | 66 | 106 | 69 |
| Jesse Colquhoun | $534,500 | 8.30% | -1.10% | 59 | 60 | 84 |
| Jacob Preston | $555,700 | 8.10% | -12.90% | 64 | 100 | 54 |
| Dylan Lucas | $665,900 | 7.20% | -0.60% | 70 | 92 | 61 |
| Cooper Clarke | $469,100 | 6.90% | -2.30% | 46 | 47 | 52 |
As mentioned above, the Tigers golden run of games has made Kai Pearce-Paul a welcome trade-in for the top 1%.
With Origin not an option for the Englishman, he is averaging the 5th most points of any 2RF this season at 77.7.
Whilst Adam Doueihi next to him would be more desirable, you can’t flaunt his base + power average of 63 points.
Most Supercoaches have made the move from Jacob Preston to him.
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