Supercoach World Cup | Harry’s Fixture Analysis and Team Reveal

Fixtures matter more than anything in the opening weeks.

We get six trades after every round, and the whole game is using them to target the matchups, chasing the good teams against the weaker ones.

I’d much rather load up on Spain when they’re drawn against Cabo Verde than when they run into Uruguay.

But you can’t churn the whole squad every week. You need a core that holds up across all three group games, then spend the rest of your trades on the upside plays for that round.

And this matters most right now, in the group stage, where the gap between the big dogs and the minnows is at its widest.

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The Numbers I’m Using

This all comes off the bookmakers, so think of it as the market’s read on how each side is expected to go.

Two numbers do the heavy lifting: projected clean sheets and projected goals.

Clean sheets point you at the defenders worth owning. Goals point you at the attackers. That’s the whole game in two columns.

It’s not perfect. It ignores base stats, and it won’t tell you which player to pick from a given side.

But picking good players from teams the market expects to dominate is about as sound a strategy gets.

Get the team right, and the player calls get a lot easier.

The Group Stage Big Picture

Spain, Germany and Brazil are the non-negotiables.

You want exposure to these three most weeks, and it’s the attack that sets them apart.

They sit clear of the field on projected goals, so the firepower is where the value is.

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Then there’s the all-rounder tier: France, Argentina, Portugal, Belgium, England and Switzerland. Strong at both ends.

It barely matters whether you go attack or defence here, because you’re getting elite fixtures either way.

After that, the clean-sheet crew: Mexico, Colombia and Canada. Their value is at the back.

If you’re picking from these sides, target the defenders and the keeper, not the strikers.

Netherlands, Uruguay and Norway round out the pool, but they’re depth rather than core.

Week 1: Read the Openers

The opening round doesn’t fall evenly, and that’s where the early trades earn their keep. Here’s how the first fixtures shape up.

The ceiling plays are Germany and Spain. Germany vs Curaçao and Spain vs Cabo Verde are about as soft as openers get, and the projections back it: Spain are tipped for over three goals in that first match alone.

This is double-attack and captaincy territory.

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Norway vs Iraq is the other one circled. Over half of Norway’s projected group goals land in this single game, which makes Haaland the must-captain for round one, even if he doesn’t stay in the side all tournament.

The softer openers worth a week-one punt: Switzerland vs Qatar, Mexico vs South Africa (the tournament opener) and Colombia vs Uzbekistan.

None are season-long anchors, but the fixtures are there for week one.

And the heavyweights I’m happy to wait on. Brazil vs Morocco, France vs Senegal and England vs Croatia are all must-owns for the tournament, but none of those openers is worth rushing into.

Get them in from MD2 when the fixtures soften.

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My Squad

My defence barely moves. I want defenders who are good across all three weeks, and I’ll happily bench an MD1 defender who comes good later.

Hakimi is the example: Morocco cop Brazil first up, then get Haiti and Scotland, so he sits week one and comes in for the softer run.

The six trades go on the mids and forwards, rotating toward whoever’s drawn the weakest opponent, with a handful of stable picks I leave alone.

The rule I’m holding to: always have representation from Spain, Germany, Brazil, France, Portugal and Belgium, then pick my moments for Argentina, England, or for doubling up.

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Here’s where the squad sits.

Germany is a double attack from the off, especially for MD1. I can’t quite justify a forward spot for Havertz, so I’m leaning two attacking mids instead.

Right now that’s Wirtz and Musiala, though Kimmich has been in the mix. Toss of a coin.

Spain is where I’m going against the grain. Most teams I’m seeing are on Cucurella, but with over three expected goals in MD1 I’d rather double their attack and chase clean sheets elsewhere.

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Oyarzabal was a star in qualifying and outshone Lamine Yamal: six goals to zero, with higher expected assists too (2.27 to 0.94).

I want both for week one, which means I might start without Mbappe.

Norway is the Haaland captaincy play, and once that opener’s banked, he’s likely my route into Mbappe for MD2.

Switzerland I’ve got nothing in, despite the odds. Their friendly against the mighty Socceroos didn’t convince me. If I go there, it’s in defence.

Portugal is a double-up from the start. The fixture is good in MD1 against DR Congo and stays good throughout. Bruno Fernandes and Nuno Mendes are locks for me.

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Belgium gives me Courtois between the sticks. Good fixtures throughout and reliable, which is exactly what I want from a set-and-forget keeper.

Brazil I’m fading for the opener against Morocco. Gabriel is likely a bench piece, and I’ll bring in a Brazil attacker for MD2 and MD3.

France is where my team is shaky. I don’t love the draw against Senegal, but would I be surprised by a 4-0? No.

I’ve got Olise on the bench to loop in if he runs riot, but I’m happy to punt against Mbappe for better fixtures and fix it from MD2. I will not be watching this game.

Colombia is likely a defender, probably Munoz, chasing the points I missed in PL SuperCoach. Colombia get forward too, so it’s the best of both worlds.

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And it’s hard not to be tempted by James Rodriguez: he might not be the player he was, but six assists and two goals in qualifying, and the most creative player in their squad.

England I’m fading for MD1 against Croatia and targeting for MD2 and MD3.

Argentina have good fixtures throughout, just never amazing, and I’m not sure who the standout pick is.

Romero to get his head on a Messi free kick is the obvious shout, or Messi himself. I’ll call it closer to lock-out.

My Plan

For MD1 I’m doubling up on Germany and Spain in attack, captaining Haaland, and locking in defenders I won’t touch for three weeks. Everything else is fair game for the six trades.

Get the core right, then let the fixtures tell you where to spend. In the group stage, the mismatches are the edge.