Supercoach World Cup Final Word | Round 2 trades, skippers and strategy

Where I sit

I’m writing this before the final day of Round 1, so Portugal, England and Colombia are still to play, with Mendes (or Cancelo if Mendes is unfit) and Bruno to come for me.

But there’s no rest in this tournament, so we go straight into round 2. How good is having the World Cup back?

I’m sitting on 147 points and pretty happy with that. The double Germany midfield did exactly what I wanted, and the double France of Mbappe and Olise was elite.

Haaland as captain banked 25, doubled, which came in while we were recording the WC podcast (go give it a watch on YouTube).

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Only two of my boys finished in single digits. Pacho had a strong double-digit score before Ecuador conceded late and wrecked it, and Oyarzabal managed 4. Not touching the ball in over 30 minutes will do that.

I don’t regret any of my picks. Spain disappointed against expectations, sure, but that’s football.

The one I’ll cop on the chin: I didn’t pay enough attention to the GOAT. Messi scoring a World Cup hat-trick at 38 is just insane, and full credit to anyone who locked him in.

There’s more below on the structure I ran and where I’m taking it.

Fixtures

We’re in round 2 of the group stage, so nobody’s qualified, and nobody’s out yet. Everyone’s still chasing points on the table, which means minutes should be safe and dead-rubber rotation isn’t a factor this round. Target the matchups.

I’m splitting this into attack and defence: attacking fixtures on the left, clean sheet odds on the right.

Attack: Incredible (>2.5 xG)	Attack: Strong (>2 xG)	Clean sheet: Incredible (>60%)	Clean sheet: Strong (>50%)
France (vs Iraq)	Canada (vs Qatar)	Spain	Brazil
Brazil (vs Haiti)	England (vs Ghana)	Ecuador	Colombia (vs DR Congo)
Ecuador (vs Curaçao)	Germany (vs Côte d’Ivoire)	France	Uruguay (vs Cabo Verde)
Spain (vs Saudi Arabia)	Belgium (vs Iran)		Canada
Portugal (vs Uzbekistan)			Portugal
			England
			Belgium

Trade Plans

France and Brazil are where I’m hunting attackers, and the clean sheet sides are where I’m anchoring my defence.

Attackers: France and Brazil first

Mbappe and Olise are the standout French options, and both performed well in round 1. For me, no other pick comes close.

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Vinícius Júnior scored from a very tough chance, his only shot of the game, but the quality is undeniable.

Igor Thiago posted the highest expected goals but only played 62 minutes, and Raphinha had the best assist potential.

I prefer Vini, but I don’t hate getting Raphinha too if you’re feeling bold. If base stats are your thing, Paquetá scored 9 in round 1 with no attacking return and no clean sheet. I just prefer the upside picks.

Pedri is the move I’m most confident in. I’m swapping my second Spain player from Oyarzabal to him.

A premium mid scoring 12 from no attacking stats, plus 1.23 expected assists that nobody finished, is exactly the floor-with-ceiling profile you want.

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Harry Kane is a question mark only because I haven’t seen England yet, but the fixtures get easier from here. He might be tough to pick over some of the in-form options.

For Ecuador, I don’t mind a keeper switch to Galíndez, or bringing in Hincapié over Pacho. Hincapié showed some attacking threat and interestingly racked up more base stats.

Then there’s Messi. Surely we have to buy the GOAT after that hat-trick.

I expect Austria to be a far tougher challenge, and while Argentina’s easiest game is round 3 against Jordan, the worry is whether he gets rested for it. I won’t be buying him myself, but I can’t judge anyone who does.

One more for the base-stat hunters who are looking for a defender: Olivera scored 9 for Uruguay, a point across seven different base stat categories.

Uruguay’s attacking numbers didn’t look flashy in round one, so a clean sheet against Cabo Verde becomes extra important to his score.

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Who’s going

I can’t see ownership right now beyond the top 10, so this is read off what I’ve seen across teams rather than ownership data.

Oyarzabal is the easy one. He’s taking up a valuable striker spot and his minutes aren’t even guaranteed after that stalemate.

If you picked up Rüdiger, he has to go too: didn’t start, and he’s clogging a valuable Germany spot.

Swiss defenders and keepers were a fine opening-fixture play, and they’re still OK this round, but it gets tougher from here, so I’d move to one of the higher-upside teams.

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Same logic for anyone holding Xhaka: the base stats didn’t come, and Embolo took the penalty. Go to someone with a bigger ceiling.

I rate Yamal as a pick, but his minutes worry me. I’d rather take Pedri and bring in one of the France or Brazil guys.

And Haaland. Am I really suggesting trading a bloke who scored 2 on his World Cup debut? Not quite. Senegal will be tougher; I’m expecting a 1-1.

They were decent in the first half against France before the second turned into a basketball game. I’d keep him one more round, then look at swapping for his round 3 game against France.

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My planned moves

• Oyarzabal > Vini
• Baumgartner (who I bought to loop on Olise’s 13) > Pedri
• Martínez > Galíndez

That leaves me with two players each from France, Brazil, Ecuador, Spain, Portugal and Germany, plus Haaland, which is exactly why I’m struggling to use my other trades.

Will save them for any loops or players unexpectedly getting benched. 

Loophole Strategy

This is where the structure gets interesting, and where I think the tournament gets won.

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What I learned in round 1:

I ran a 3-4-3 this round, three at the back and four in the middle, specifically so I could have a proper look at one of my riskier mids.

This round that was Olise, and he repaid the faith. It cost me a touch this round, because it meant I played three defenders and four mids while plenty of others ran two and five.

In a round where the mids were scoring, that extra mid would’ve helped. But I’m not backing away from it.

With games spread so far apart and a stack of trades in the bank right now, I can trade loop options in and out depending on where I need to bring on a bench player. Long term, that flexibility wins more than it loses.

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My round 2 plan

I’m carrying Musiala on the mid bench, and his minutes worry me enough that I might trade him to Kimmich. But the loop covers me either way: if he plays and goes big, I take the score; if he doesn’t, I’ve lost nothing. Let the points come to you.

The keeper’s another lever. Galíndez is on my bench; otherwise it’s Courtois.

I’ve also flirted with running two non-playing defenders purely as loop fodder. The idea is simple: if my first bench defender posts a monster, I take it. I’d have pulled the trigger this round if I’d had Virgil and his 17 sitting there.

The reason I’m comfortable with it is you can trade straight out of that position right now, so the downside is tiny.

One line I won’t cross: I’m not looping my forwards. Running only two playing forwards to free up a loop spot probably costs more in missed starting points than the loop ever gives back.

Mids and defenders, yes. Forwards, no.

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Captains

The safe play is Mbappe. France against Iraq is the best attacking fixture on the board, and he was elite in round 1. That’s your most-captained option, and there’s no shame in it.

The differential for rank-chasers is Vini. He’s my VC, and if you want the bold route, you flip the armband onto him and chase the Brazil ceiling against Haiti.

He only had one shot in round 1, but he buried it, and the quality is there for a bigger return.

VC: Vini

C: Mbappe

Other options:

• Kane
• Salah
• Bruno
• Messi