Supercoach World Cup Final Word | Semi-finals trades, skippers and strategy

135 points last round, good enough for a round rank of 683. I was surprised how high that rank was, so I’ll take it.

Here’s the reality at this stage of the tournament: our squads are basically clones of each other now.

I had Mbappe, Messi, and Bellingham, same as roughly 99% of the field. When everyone owns the same guns, one player difference who pops off is all it takes to climb. That’s the whole game right now.

The one blemish: I played it safe and backed Mbappe for the double over Messi. Cost me 3 points, not much in the grand scheme, but extra time was the killer.

My one real win was the POD: Odegaard, with an assist, did the job.

Now comes the hardest week of the whole tournament.

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Fixtures

Four best sides left, all playing each other. Two semis, no soft opponents to feast on, nowhere to hide.

And the odds are ugly. Nobody’s projected past 2 goals, and nobody’s clean sheet odds crack 35%.

That’s the worst of both worlds. Nothing in this game is worse than a 1-1 draw being the most likely outcome: no good for your attackers, no good for your defenders.

I normally target teams with 40% plus clean sheet odds, and not one side this round comes close.

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France vs Spain

Goals: France 1.59, Spain 1.39.

Clean sheet odds: France 26%, Spain 21%.

France carries the most attacking upside of any side this round, even if it’s only marginal.

Olise and Mbappe are musts, no debate.

Dembele is the play to get a leg up on the field. Everyone’s running the popular Kane, Messi and Mbappe front line, so he’s your differential forward.

Digne vs Upamecano at the back is a coin flip.

Digne has the attacking upside; Upamecano racks up the base stats. Couldn’t blame you for grabbing both.

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Spain are the side I’m fading this round.

I was high on Porro and Cucurella last week, but I can’t see them keeping France out.

Yamal and Oyarzabal are live differential forward options again, but plenty of teams will run a double France defence, and you can’t win both bets.

Be careful with Baena and Pedri. Neither had strong minutes last round.

Olmo is still my preferred Spain option, but he’s not touching my field.

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England vs Argentina

Goals: England 1.39, Argentina 1.21.

Clean sheet odds: England 31%, Argentina 25%.

England are the best clean sheet bet of the four, but even they’re low.

Bellingham is a must. Kane is a strong buy but not essential.

After that, it thins out. Pickford for some save points is an option.

Elliot Anderson is the next highest averaging mid and not exactly inspiring.

Reece James is a live one if he starts. He might get subbed before the clean sheet goes, and he always carries attacking upside.

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Argentina rounds out the four.

The data says Messi isn’t a must, but I couldn’t go against him.

Mac Allister vs Enzo is the tough one. The eye test says Enzo should be the one getting the attacking points, but Mac Allister has had the stronger minutes and got the points recently.

Martinez and Romero are still my preferred defender options.

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Trade Plans

Two ways to play this round, and you need to pick a lane.

Go all in: back the two sides you think win and don’t hedge. For example, load up on French attackers and don’t own a single Spanish defender.

This is the highest upside play, but also the biggest downside if your read is wrong. It depends on what kind of manager you are.

Or hedge: spread attackers and defenders across all four teams. The catch is you can’t have four clean sheets and all four teams scoring at once; it doesn’t work like that, so you’re guaranteeing some of your players blank. But maybe you don’t need them all to hit.

I’m going high risk. I’m betting it all against Spain: four French players starting on the field, then hedging between Argentina and England for everything else.

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My planned moves

Maignan (GK) > Simon

Samudio (GK) > Pickford

Romero (Def) > Digne

Cucurella (Def) > Upamecano

KDB (Mid) > Enzo

Odegaard (Mid) > Mac Allister

Maignan out is the key one. I want four outfield France players on the field, and he was clogging a spot, so Simon comes in as my looping bench cover instead.

And here’s how you dodge the two coin flips this round, Digne vs Upamecano and Enzo vs Mac Allister: pick both.

No agonising, no wrong call. I own the pair in each case and let the points sort themselves out.

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Loophole Strategy

This is the perfect round to loop. No teams get knocked out, so you’ve got more trades than you could ever use.

That means you can load your bench with France and Spain players across the keeper, defence, and midfield slots. They play first, so you see their scores and only loop them on if they actually deliver.

My anti-Spain approach hands me the bench for exactly this. I’ve got Simon, Porro and Olmo sitting there, and I can bring all three on if they pop off. All upside, no cost.

The only risk is that one of my Argentina or England players gets benched, and I’ve already burned my trades. But that feels unlikely, so I’m not losing sleep over it.

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Captains

I’m sick of writing Mbappe VC into Messi C, but it keeps working, so here we are again.

One wrinkle, though: I reckon there’s a huge chance Kane outscores Messi this week. It’ll be tight, but don’t dismiss him.

If you’re chasing rank, this is where you get brave. Back Spain over France, get Yamal in your squad and throw the VC on him. Almost nobody else will, and that’s the entire point.

VC: Mbappe

C: Messi

Other options:

Kane

Yamal (the rank-chase POD)