Tim Williams
SC Playbook founder, 2nd NRL 2020, 43rd BBL 21/22'
Updated! Former NRL Supercoach runner-up Tim Williams deep dives into the NRL round 8 teams with a Supercoach analysis on who to buy, hold and sell.
NRLThe Easter NRL action is over, the ANZAC weekend is on the horizon.
It’s two truly outstanding rounds of rugby league on the calendar, and we get them back-to-back into Magic Round!
How good is this sport…
With the chaos of long weekends and Monday footy, my week gets thrown out of whack, with the Bloke in a Bar podcast pushed back to Tuesday, straight into the SC Playbook podcast.
As a result of that, along with the late Supercoach lockout ending on Tuesday, I was a bit behind on my full analysis this week but it’s now completely up to date, albeit a touch shorter than normal.
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The Stallions had a decent round 8 with 1,266 points for a few green arrows into 3,380th overall, so we’re tracking in the right direction, which is encouraging.
Injuries are starting to take a toll across Supercoach, with the hooking and fullback spots currently wide open, along with five-eighth since the ankle injury to Jayden Campbell.
It’ll hopefully lead to some variety in Supercoach teams, which is always a good thing in my mind.
Let’s take a look at the NRL Supercoach teams analysis for round 8, with squads lists courtesy of Fox Sports.
Embed from Getty ImagesThursday, 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Broncos: 1. Selwyn Cobbo 2. Deine Mariner 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Ben Hunt 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Patrick Carrigan 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Xavier Willison 12. Jordan Riki 13. Kobe Hetherington
Bench: 14. Cory Paix 15. Corey Jensen 16. Brendan Piakura 17. Jaiyden Hunt
Reserves: 18. Tyson Smoothy 19. Martin Taupau 20. Jock Madden 21. Josiah Karapani 22. Benjamin Te Kura
Analysis: Selwyn Cobbo replaces the injured Reece Walsh at fullback.
At $474k, he becomes an interesting prospect, but with an 83 breakeven and the Bulldogs incoming there’s no need to go early.
On top of that, Cobbo has started at fullback only twice in his career scoring 71 (vs Manly, 2024) and 24 (vs Penrith, 2023).
Gehamat Shibasaki ($501k, 50BE) and Jesse Arthars ($489k, 64BE) have both peaked and can be sold at anytime in coming weeks.
I’d be extremely reluctant to play either in my starting squad this week against the Bulldogs defence.
Deine Mariner returns on the wing.
Embed from Getty ImagesBulldogs: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Josh Curran 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Jaeman Salmon
Bench: 14. Kurt Mann 15. Sitili Tupouniua 16. Harry Hayes 17. Bailey Hayward
Reserves: 19. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 20. Blake Wilson 21. Blake Taaffe 22. Lipoi Hopoi 23. Luke Smith
Analysis: No major changes at the Bulldogs.
Fullback Connor Tracey ticks a lot of boxes as a buy.
He’s dual CTW-FLB, well priced at $570k, plays all three major bye rounds and has a strong work rate in a gun team.
This season he’s averaging 64 points from 18.6 runs and three tacklebreaks per game, along with four try-assists and two tries.
In just his second game back for the season, Jacob Kiraz belted out 84 points with only a try-assist to his name.
He’s $702k and should be a major target for everyone, obviously more so than Tracey despite the price difference.
After attacking stats eluded him earlier in the season, Jacob Preston is repping a three round average of 74 points.
He’s $724k with a breakeven of 68 and looks hard to knock as a buy.
Embed from Getty ImagesFriday, 4pm, Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Robert Toia 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Sandon Smith 7. Hugo Savala 8. Spencer Leniu 9. Connor Watson 10. Naufahu Whyte 11. Angus Crichton 12. Siua Wong 13. Victor Radley
Bench: 14. Zach Dockar-Clay 15. Salesi Foketi 16. Blake Steep 17. Egan Butcher
Reserves: 18. Ethan King 19. Taylor Losalu 20. Chad Townsend 21. Dominic Young 22. Makahesi Makatoa
Analysis: With Billy Smith back from suspension at centre, Dom Young has been dropped, with Mark Nawaqanitawase named on the wing.
This makes Nawaqanitawase an extremely intriguing watch at $545k with a breakeven 27 and a season average of 66.
Even before being named to return, Billy Smith was already the most traded-in player this week.
He has scores of 79 and 72 to start the season, and has a breakeven of -56 with an expected prise rise of $76.9k.
It’s also a win for Rob Toia who retains his spot at centre after scoring 58 against the Panthers.
Sandon Smith has peaked in price at $433k with a breakeven of 52 and can potentially be moved on at any time, the question is who to exactly at hooker?
I’ll be holding and reluctantly playing at hooker until someone in the position puts their hand up as a buy.
Connor Watson is a popular buy in the position and while I agree he’s the pick of the position with Harry Grant out, he misses a minimum six of nine games from round 10 onwards due to Origin commitments and a poor bye schedule.
Embed from Getty ImagesDragons: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Tyrell Sloan 3. Moses Suli 4. Valentine Holmes 5. Sione Finau 6. Kyle Flanagan 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Toby Couchman 9. Damien Cook 10. David Klemmer 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Jack de Belin
Bench: 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Blake Lawrie 16. Emre Guler 17. Dylan Egan
Reserves: 18. Lyhkan King-Togia 19. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga 20. Finau Latu 21. Corey Allan 22. Raymond Faitala-Mariner
Analysis: Cheapie Sione Finau ($279k) replaces the injured Mat Feagai on the wing.
Dylan Egan has been named on the bench as per the previous two weeks, but likely starts on the edge as per the past fortnight.
Hamish Stewart is out with a concussion.
Some are selling Clint Gutherson following back-to-back 50s leaving him with a breakeven of 139 at $798k.
I don’t like the move, he plays two major bye rounds and has a decent draw incoming.
He’s the focal point of the Dragons attack, there’ll be more tonnes incoming.
Toby Couchman continues to bang out big scores, sitting with a three round average of 82 points in 63 minutes per game.
In those games his only major attacking stats are a linebreak and linebreak assist.
Embed from Getty ImagesFriday, 6:05pm, Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch
Warriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Taine Tuaupiki 3. Rocco Berry 4. Ali Leiataua 5. Adam Pompey 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Luke Metcalf 8. Jackson Ford 9. Wayde Egan 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Marata Niukore 13. Erin Clark
Bench 14. Leka Halasima 15. Bunty Afoa 16. Demitric Vaimauga 17. Jacob Laban
Reserves: 18. Te Maire Martin 20. Tanah Boyd 21. Tanner Stowers-Smith 22. Samuel Healey 23. Edward Kosi
Analysis: Potential cheapie Leka Halasima returns to the bench after starring against the Broncos, with Rocco Berry returning at centre and Kurt Capewell moving to the back-row.
The recently re-signed Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad also returns at fullback pushing Taine Tuaupiki to the wing.
Despite their excellent NRL form, there aren’t a lot of eye-catchers in Supercoach at the Warriors at the moment unless Halasima does regain that starting edge spot.
Wayde Egan is a genuine option at hooker but may have picked up a knock on the weekend and is likely to drop cash with a 93 breakeven, so it can wait at least a week.
Embed from Getty ImagesKnights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. James Schiller 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Fletcher Sharpe 7. Tyson Gamble 8. Tyson Frizell 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Dylan Lucas 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Mathew Croker
Bench: 14. Jayden Brailey 15. Tyrone Thompson 16. Thomas Cant 17. Brodie Jones
Reserves: 18. Kyle McCarthy 19. Paul Bryan 20. Jack Cogger 21. Matthew Arthur 22. Logan Aoake
Analysis: Dylan Lucas returns from injury in the back-row and should be on everyone’s shopping list in coming weeks.
Lucas sits 5th in Supercoach for average points this season, following scores of 75 and 97 in his opening two games.
This pushes cheapie Thomas Cant to the bench who is $415k having made $141k.
With a breakeven of 23 you can wait a week on selling if need be, while there’s also a chance he starts at lock in place of Mat Croker.
With a horrific three round average of 38 there’s plenty that have run out of patience with Kalyn Ponga.
I’m not one of them, at least not at the incredible price of $591k (for good reason).
The Knights attack has been woeful and can only improve, in my eyes he’s too cheap to pass on based on his ability, pedigree and upside.
Further, there’s no injuries to report so there’s no reason why he can’t bounce back to his form to begin the season.
Greg Marzhew went bonkers scoring 138 in a well beaten team against the Sharks.
He broke the tacklebust record in a single game with 21, moving past Tom Trbojevic.
He’s now $578k with a breakeven of -13, meaning anyone wanting to buy likely needs to do so this week or next.
Newcastle don’t have a bye until round 18 making him a great purchase.
Embed from Getty ImagesFriday, 8:10pm, AAMI Park, Melbourne
Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Kane Bradley 3. Grant Anderson 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Bronson Garlick 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero
Bench: 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Joe Chan 17. Lazarus Vaalepu
Reserves: 18. Ativalu Lisati 19. Sualauvi Faalogo 20. Keagan Russell-Smith 21. Coby Williamson 22. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
Analysis: Nick Meaney returns from injury at centre in place of the injured Jack Howarth.
The big watch will be on whether or not he regains the goal-kicking from Ryan Papenhuyzen.
In 2025 so far Papy is kicking at a 90.5% conversion rate.
In his career he’s hit them at 80.4%.
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Kicking rival Meaney is hitting them well this year at 84.6%.
Across his career at Melbourne since 2022 he’s converting at 77.1, while he struck them at 72.8% at the Bulldogs.
My gut says Papi retains it as he’s been hitting them sublime.
While it wouldn’t threaten Papy’s place in my team, it does making him a substantially less appealing captaincy option if he relinquishes the goal-kicking duties.
Jahrome Hughes will bottom out next week likely at around $650k due to his 16 points in 40 minutes against the Warriors a fortnight back.
While his major bye coverage isn’t great missing the first two majors, he does still look a decent pick-up at a bargain price.
Embed from Getty ImagesRabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Bayleigh Bentley-Hape 3. Jack Wighton 4. Campbell Graham 5. Isaiah Tass 6. Cody Walker 7. Jayden Sullivan 8. Sean Keppie 9. Peter Mamouzelos 10. Tevita Tatola 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Euan Aitken 13. Jai Arrow
Bench: 14. Jye Gray 15. Siliva Havili 16. Davvy Moale 17. Tallis Duncan
Reserves: 18. Liam Le Blanc 19. Lewis Dodd 20. Thomas Fletcher 21. Salesi Ataata 22. Declan Casey
Analysis: Latrell Mitchell moves to fullback having dropped $103k on his starting price, sitting with a breakeven of 146 ahead of the Melbourne clash.
Last season, Latrell averaged 87 at fullback with three tonnes in his last fives games and just two scores under 70 in his 10 matches all up.
With Origin looming he’s probably not worth buying, but if he impresses against Melbourne you could jump on for three upcoming fixtures against the Knights, Broncos and Tigers.
Cody Walker is likely to be priced at a mouthwatering $320k next week.
With Latrell back at fullback and a few players returning he could be a bargain back up 5/8-HFB for the Origin period with coverage of the final two major bye rounds.
Granted, you’d probably want to see one decent outing from him before taking the plunge.
Lachlan Hubner is out with a concussion, Euan Aitken moves to the back-row and Jai Arrow to lock.
Jye Gray will play off the bench.
Embed from Getty ImagesSaturday, 5:30pm, QCB Stadium, Townsville
Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Robert Derby 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Jake Clifford 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. John Bateman 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter
Bench: 14. Sam McIntyre 15. Kai O’Donnell 16. Griffin Neame 17. Coen Hess
Reserves: 18. Harrison Edwards 19. Zac Laybutt 20. Thomas Duffy 21. Karl Lawton 22. Thomas Mikaele
Analysis: Scott Drinkwater is a popular buy this week at $702k with an average of 70 and breakeven of 68.
The risk for most is his supposedly low floor when attacking stats don’t come, but the stats in recent times tell a different story.
He failed to score a try or record a try-assist in his last game against the Rabbitohs yet still scored 78 points.
In five games last season without a try or assist he had scores of 49, 81, 59, 57 and 48 for an average of 58.8.
Note that only included one single conversion. That’s excellent output.
The Cowboys play their next five games in Queensland, including four at home in Townsville.
Interestingly in 2024 he averaged a tick below his season average when playing at home, averaging 77.75 points per game.
The Cowboys non-Origin players feature in 18 of the next 19 rounds.
Jeremiah Nanai is back in the starting side for the Cowboys.
Embed from Getty ImagesTitans: 1. Jaylan De Groot 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Phillip Sami 5. Jojo Fifita 6. AJ Brimson 7. Tom Weaver 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 11. Chris Randall 12. Beau Fermor 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
Bench: 14. David Fifita 15. Jaimin Jolliffe 16. Brock Gray 17. Arama Hau
Reserves: 18. Tony Francis 19. Iszac Fa’asumaleaui 20. Jacob Alick-Wiencke 21. Allan Fitzgibbon 22. Josiah Pahulu
Analysis: David Fifita has been named to return on the bench from a hamstring injury but remains in doubt for the weekend.
Monitor him, but I’ll be reluctant to consider investing until he’s back starting in big minutes.
Beau Fermor is enticing at $496k at dual 2RF-CTW, the problem is that he’s so often utilised at centre for the Titans where he’s struggled in scoring this season.
In two games in the backline he scored just 28 and 35.
Jayden Campbell is likely to return in round 13 after their bye, or round 11 best case which makes him a sell either way.
Embed from Getty ImagesSaturday, 7:35pm, CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Paul Alamoti 3. Izack Tago 4. Casey McLean 5. Thomas Jenkins 6. Blaize Talagi 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Luke Sommerton 10. Liam Henry 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo
Bench: 14. Brad Schneider 15. Isaiah Papali’i 16. Lindsay Smith 17. Mavrik Geyer
Reserves: 18. Daine Laurie 19. Luron Patea 20. Asu Kepaoa 21. Matt Eisenhuth 22. Jack Cole
Analysis: Mitch Kenny and Luke Garner are both out for the Panthers.
Their Origin relavent players are hard to consider as they’ll miss round 11 (bye), round 12 (Origin), round 15 (Origin/bye), round 18 (Origin/bye) and most likely round 16 as they’ll travel from Perth to New Zealand on a short turnaround.
This makes Nathan Cleary a potential sell to Jahrome Hughes in round 10, or round 15 after they face the Eels and Tigers. But let’s not worry too much about that for now.
Paul Alamoti has caught my eye on the right wing, scoring a very simple brace last week on the preferred edge of Nathan Cleary and Dylan Edwards.
In games with the star pairing this season he’s scored 65, 19 and 105 for an average of 63 points per game.
Note the 19 did include a sin-bin and 14 points in negative stats.
In those games he had 34 in base, he’s averaging 17.4 runs per game on the wing.
Embed from Getty ImagesSea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Josh Aloiai 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jazz Tevaga
Bench: 14. Tommy Talau 15. Corey Waddell 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Nathan Brown
Reserves: 18. Gordon Chan Kum Tong 19. Clayton Faulalo 20. Jakob Arthur 21. Michael Chee Kam 22. Caleb Navale
Analysis: Tom Trbojevic returns for Manly at fullback, pushing Lehi Hopoate to the wing.
Turbo averages 67 vs Penrith in the last four seasons, including 111 points last time they met.
I won’t be touching him until round 20 at the earliest.
Manly are very light in the middle with both Jake Trbojevic and Toa Sipley out.
With a bye after this Penrith clash the Manly contingent will become very relevant from round 10 onwards as they play all three major bye rounds.
Embed from Getty ImagesSunday, 2pm, GIO Stadium, Canberra
Raiders: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Savelio Tamale 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Corey Horsburgh 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Matt Nicholson 13. Morgan Smithies
Bench: 14. Owen Pattie 15. Zac Hosking 16. Josh Papali’i 17. Ata Mariota 18. Simi Sasagi 19. Jed Stuart 20. Pasami Saulo 21. Trey Mooney 22. Danny Levi
Analysis: No major changes at the Raiders.
Tom Starling scored just 28 against the Titans and has likely peaked in price at $502k with a breakeven of 52.
However, with no standout hooking options he’s worth holding onto for the time being in my opinion.
There’s not much better on the market, and the Raiders don’t have a bye until round 15.
Ethan Strange has caught the attention of a few with scores of 70 and 96 in recent weeks to sit at $436k with a breakeven of -30.
While there’s cash incoming, I don’t rate the buy as I don’t think you want to be burning too many trades at 5/8 at the moment.
With three scores of 20 or below this season he’ll be a sell sooner rather than later, I’d avoid.
Embed from Getty ImagesDolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Jack Bostock 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Max Plath 10. Francis Molo 11. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 12. Tom Gilbert 13. Mark Nicholls
Bench: 14. Kurt Donoghoe 15. Ray Stone 16. Connelly Lemuelu 17. Josh Kerr
Reserves: 18. Kenny Bromwich 19. Sean O’Sullivan 20. Oryn Keeley 21. Tevita Naufahu 22. Junior Tupou
Analysis: Max Plath has been named at hooker after being cleared of serious injury, but remains in doubt for the weekend.
With the Dolphins playing all three major bye rounds, Herbie Farnworth is a near must before round 12 with a season average of 73 points including an incredible base of 40!
He’s scored just two tries this season and assisted one.
Embed from Getty ImagesSunday, 4:05pm, Leichhardt Oval, Sydney
Tigers: 1. Jahream Bula 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Adam Doueihi 4. Starford To’a 5. Brent Naden 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Jarome Luai 8. Terrell May 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Fonua Pole 11. Samuela Fainu 12. Alex Seyfarth 13. Alex Twal
Bench: 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Royce Hunt 16. Jack Bird 17. Sione Fainu
Reserves: 18. Tony Sukkar 19. Heath Mason 20. Kit Laulilii 21. Solomona Faataape 22. Tristan Hope
Analysis: Lachlan Galvin returns at five-eighth, with Adam Doueihi shifting to centre, no sign of injured cheapie Latu Fainu.
No major interest at the Tigers at the moment as they miss the first two major bye rounds and have tough fixtures incoming against the Sharks, Dragons and Storm.
Terrell May remains a must and is in the elite tier of captaincy plays each week with an 83 point average and a low score of just 69.
Embed from Getty ImagesSharks:
Analysis: The Sharks play the first two major bye rounds and have a soft fortnight ahead in the Tigers and Eels.
No sign yet of the injured Kayal Iro, in a big win for gun cheapie Mawene Hiroti.
Hiroti scored a late try against the Knights to take his season average to 77 points, banking $113k and sitting with a breakeven of -27. Cha Ching!
While I wouldn’t rush to buy Nicho Hynes on current form, he does look a good pick-up leading into the Origin period.
The Spy made a good observation on the SC Playbook podcast this week that he had 79 touches in round 7 and 67 in round 6.
He hadn’t had above 60 all season prior to those games.
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