H2H | The Best Draws for your finals System

If you’re not first you’re last. That’s the Ricky Bobby quote which summarises how most Head to Head focused Coaches should be thinking about their leagues.

Making your H2H finals is an achievement, but no one remembers who finished second. And every advantage you can take into your Finals can help.

Serious H2H players know the true secret advantage to winning your league is your finals strength of schedule. Because while the overall difference in points over a whole season is crucial, in a H2H finals format, it all boils down to just four weeks of matchups.

So if you’re lucky enough to progress to the finals of your league, having the match-ups in your favour will give you a major advantage.

Your finals will typically run for four rounds and it’s important to check your league settings to know when they start and finish. It could be 22-25, 23-26 or 24-27. Good luck if it’s a round 27 final which will mean you’re also factoring in restings.

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Experienced coaches also know that match-ups have a different impact for each position on the field. Largely in the forwards, tougher games do not have as big of an impact on scoring. But in the backs and halves, the big scores can have a huge say with major scoring variations. 

Finding players who can play above their value when it matters is one of the critical components of winning your league. And with less than 10 rounds to go until Finals start, now is the time to be considering every trade with respect to the team you think can win it all.

With a decent enough sample size of data to know the good and bad teams in SuperCoach. Leveraging this is crucial for your forward planning.

As we wrote early this month as well, the CTW is a changed position where most of the major targets are effectively match-up proof.

But it’s everyone around them – especially some low ownership guys – who do have the ability to pop off and greatly improve their season average when the draw is in their favour.

Here’s a breakdown of the draws across the three main Finals Systems, and some notes on who I like as targets (and even a couple of anti-PODs).

Caveat:

The advice below covers a four week stretch of games. And a lot of Coaches out there will just be pushing to MAKE your finals. So make sure you understand any recommendations below are made in isolation with a view of finals – if you want more detail on the best draws in the fun into H2H finals, check out last week’s article.

Also this is my take on the match-ups based on my ratings which take into consideration how teams are going from both a SuperCoach and NRL perspective. But stuff can change and if you have opinions on match-ups you like you may view the table differently.

System 1: Rounds 22 – 25 Finals System

The Good Draws;

• Rabbitohs: Broncos to start at Suncorp before three absolute belters against poor defensive sides.
• Sharks: three incredible match-ups but a tricky bye in your Grand Final
• Warriors: a big finish in rounds 24 and 25 against dragons and Titans
• Eels: a tough start against the Storm before three decent games

The Bad Draws;

• Panthers: aside from Titans, it’s a very difficult draw against three of the best defensive sides in the comp
• Broncos: two hard games against Storm and Knights in the GF

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Some thoughts:

• AJ and Latrell stack: if I played this system, I would buy Alex Johnston this week and get my hands on Latrell after his bye in Round 19. These two are a great pairing given Latrell is responsible for so many of the tries he will score.
• Sharks attackers: As ordinary as his start to the year has been, Briton Nikora would be a priority for me. He’s a rare 2RF who can score a ton and get multiple tries such is his potency. His ownership is also low. Him, Hynes and even Ramien, Katoa or Mulitalo would be targets for mine.
• Luke Metcalf: when the Warriors go big, their halfback is at the centre of it. He’s an awesome POD in your halves for SuperCoach for your semi and Grand final.
• Lomax: there’s not a lot of Eels of relevance but he is one of them.
• Panthers: arguably there’s not many SuperCoach relevant players at the club this year, but a tough draw does put a line through some POD options like Blaize, Brian To’o for me.

System 2 (the most popular one): Rounds 23 – 26 Finals System

The Good draws:

• Warriors: tough one on the road against the Dogs before three absolute belters.
• Eels: the grand final is a difficult one on the road, but some winnable games otherwise.
• Rabbitohs: three huge games they should win before a tricky bye in the Grand Final.
• Dolphins: a perfect Grand Final opponent, and some other games against some sides who are up and down.
• Titans; no real easy ones but four manageable games.

The Bad Draws:

• Panthers; playing four of the best defensive sides
• Broncos; a good Grand Final, but some extremely tough games in their first three
• Roosters; Storm in the GF is less than ideal, and Bulldogs in 24 isn’t much better

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Some thoughts;

• AJ and Latrell stack: if I played this system, I would buy Alex Johnston this week and get my hands on Latrell after his bye in Round 19. These two are a great pairing given Latrell is responsible for so many of the tries he will score.
• Sharks attackers: As ordinary as his start to the year has been, Briton Nikora would be a priority for me. He’s a rare 2RF who can score a ton and get multiple tries such is his potency. His ownership is also low. Him, Hynes and even Ramien, Katoa or Mulitalo would be targets for mine.
• Luke Metcalf: when the Warriors go big, their halfback is at the centre of it. He’s an awesome POD in your halves for SuperCoach for your semi and Grand final. It could even be worth adding in a RTS or Erin Clark to your watchlist.
• Dolphins: Herbie is match-up proof, but it could be worth considering if there’s other players of interest as well at the club who could lift their average during the period
• Lomax: there’s not a lot of Eels of relevance but he is one of them.
• Panthers: arguably there’s not many SuperCoach relevant players at the club this year, but a tough draw does put a line through some POD options like Blaize, Brian To’o for me.
• There’s a lot of Roosters who are pretty match-up proof, but others like Mark Nawaqanitawase who aren’t. I’d give Marky a miss based on this finals system unless you have the depth to be able to bench him and only play in that Round 25 game.

System 3: Rounds 24 – 27 Finals System

The Good Draws:

• Knights: two good ones, two medium ones. A nice GF!
• Warriors: three bangers, two of which are at home and the other on the Gold Coast.
• Sea Eagles: A toughish GF but three winable games around that
• Tigers: Two easy ones including a nice GF. Raiders is hard however in 26.
• Titans: Nothing too hard, nothing too easy.
• Rabbitohs: Two super good games to start with before the bye. Round 27 should be crazy too if both sides are pushing for a Finals spot.

The Bad Draws:

• Eels: tough opponents including the GF
• Broncos: Storm in the GF is tough, but keep an eye on potential restings.
• Sharks: a bye in 25 before a Bulldogs GF, no thanks.

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Some notes:

• Knights: emerge on this list for the first time. A GF against the Eels is sold as is a round 24 match-up with the Cowboys. They’ve a ton of SuperCoach relevant options you could go after.
• Warriors: Emerging as a super relevant team for H2H finals. Metcalf, RTS, and Clark are probably the three to consider the most closely.
• Sea Eagles: I’m reluctant to spruik the Manly boys too hard as there’s some weird things happening on the peninsula, but they’ve got some good fixtures.
• Tigers; not much SuperCoach relevance but could be some POD opportunities from Round 25 onward with say a Starford To’a.
• Titans; as per the 23-26 system, nothing too easy but nothing too hard either
• Rabbitohs; a tricky bye to navigate in Round 26 but otherwise it’s a great draw. AJ, Trell would be fun to own.
• Sharks would be tough to own in this system and I’d be going against Nicho Hynes if I could

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