NRL Finals Week 1 Teams: Supercoach Squad Analysis

Supercoach classic ends, Supercoach finals arrives…

NRL finals are here, EPL and NFL Supercoach are in full swing, spring has sprung, and life is good as a fantasy sport lover.

The Cooma Stallions flew home with 1,721 points in the final round to finish in 560^th overall.

The depth strategy paid off with big moves made across the final month of the season.

It’s typically a slower grind across the season, but always tends to pay off come the business end (2024 being the exception).

All in all, I’m thrilled with the finish and how the season has played out.

Congratulations to the new champion Finn on his title, and to Jake who finished runner-up while claiming the SC Playbook crown in the process.

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We now turn our attention to NRL Supercoach finals under a new format.

We pick eight players in our squad, one in each position, including a flex.

There are no player prices, while some dual positions have been altered from the regular season.

We can select no more than two players per team, which means there’s numerous different team structures we can opt for.

Captain scores are multiplied by three, vice-captains are doubled, essentially get this wrong and you’re gone because those two players are likely to account for around 5/7^th of your total, which is bonkers.

If either player goes low and drops out as your flex, you’re also screwed.

I don’t love it personally, but that’s the game.

On that strategic side, the opportunity to go against the crowd with point of difference skippers could pay HUGE dividends.

The rest of the format is extremely exciting, and I can’t wait to get stuck in.

As it’s very positional based with one player from each spot, I’ve rejigged the format below to have both team news and position specific analysis.

Let’s take a look at squads for week one of NRL Supercoach finals.

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Storm v Bulldogs

Friday, 7:50pm, AAMI Park, Melbourne

Storm: 1. Nick Meaney 2. Will Warbrick 3. Grant Anderson 4. Joe Chan 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Tyran Wishart 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Ativalu Lisati 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero

Bench: 14. Jonah Pezet 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Ativalu Lisati

Reserves: 18. Kane Bradley 19. Marion Seve 20. Jack Howarth 21. Sualauvi Faalogo 22. Lazarus Vaalepu

Bulldogs: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Blake Wilson 3. Enari Tuala 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Jethro Rinakama 6. Matt Burton 7. Lachlan Galvin 8. Max King 9. Bailey Hayward 10. Samuel Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Jaeman Salmon

Bench: 14. Kurt Mann 15. Sitili Tupouniua 16. Josh Curran 17. Reed Mahoney

Reserves: 19. Jake Turpin 20. Kurtis Morrin 21. Toby Sexton 22. Harry Hayes 23. Jacob Kiraz

Team news: 

Big shuffle in the spine for the Storm with Nick Meaney (fullback) Tyran Wishart (halfback) and Harry Grant (hooker) making their way into the side for the injured Jahrome Hughes (wrist) and Ryan Papenhuyzen (concussion).

Joe Chan has been named at centre, but keep an eye on Jack Howarth (groin) who is listed among the reserves.

Bronson Garlick goes back to the bench with Grant returning.

Stefano Utoikamanu returns after being rested in Round 27, which sees Tui Kamikamica revert to the bench with Nelson Asofa-Solomona out suspended. 

The Bulldogs lose their left edge with Marcelo Montoya (ankle) and Bronson Xerri (concussion) sidelined.

Enari Tuala moves to left centre and Jethro Rinakama left wing, whilst Blake Wilson has been named to start at right wing.

Keep an eye on Jacob Kiraz (ankle), who has been named on the extended bench to possibly swap out with Blake Wilson.

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WARRIORS v PANTHERS

Saturday, 4:05pm, Go Media Stadium, Auckland

Warriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Adam Pompey 4. Kurt Capewell 5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Tanah Boyd 8. James Fisher-Harris 9. Wayde Egan 10. Jackson Ford 11. Leka Halasima 12. Marata Niukore 13. Erin Clark

Bench: 14. Te Maire Martin 15. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava 16. Demitric Vaimauga 17. Tanner Stowers-Smith

Reserves: 18. Taine Tuaupiki 20. Samuel Healey 21. Kalani Going 22. Bunty Afoa 23. Edward Kosi

Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Paul Alamoti 3. Izack Tago 4. Casey McLean 5. Brian To’o 6. Blaize Talagi 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Luke Sommerton 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo

Bench: 14. Brad Schneider 15. Liam Henry 16. Isaiah Papali’i 17. Luke Garner

Reserves: 18. Thomas Jenkins 19. Matt Eisenhuth 20. Daine Laurie 21. Mavrik Geyer 22. Trent Toelau

Team news:

A shoulder injury to Rocco Berry sees Kurt Capewell shift to right centre, and Leka Halasima start at left 2nd row.

Wayde Egan and Jackson Ford both return in the starting team, which forces Tanner Stowers-Smith to the bench and Samuel Healey to the reserves.

Panthers are boosted by the return of 4-time Premiership-winning players Brian To’o and Liam Martin.

Ivan Cleary has made a huge call on To’o’s replacement, with Thomas Jenkins omitted from the starting 17 and Paul Alamoti staying on the right wing.

Mitch Kenny is out with an undisclosed injury, giving 11-gamer Luke Sommerton the starting hooker role.

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SHARKS v ROOSTERS

Saturday, 7:50pm, Sharks Stadium, Sydney

Sharks: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3 Jesse Ramien 4. KL Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Toby Rudolf 11. Billy Burns 12. Teig Wilton 13. Jesse Colquhoun

Bench: 14. Oregon Kaufusi 15. Siosifa Talakai 16. Thomas Hazelton 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele

Reserves: 18. Daniel Atkinson 19. Mawene Hiroti 20. Jayden Berrell 21. Briton Nikora 22. Hohepa Puru

Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Robert Toia 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Hugo Savala 7. Sam Walker 8. Spencer Leniu 9. Connor Watson 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Victor Radley 13. Naufahu Whyte

Bench: 14. Benaiah Ioelu 15. Egan Butcher 16. Blake Steep 17. Siua Wong

Reserves: 18. Ethan King 19. Salesi Foketi 20. Sandon Smith 21. Tom Rodwell 22. Makahesi Makatoa

Team news: Braydon Trindall returns to five-eighth after being rested in Round 27, moving Daniel Atkinson to the reserves.

Briton Nikora has also been listed on the extended bench as he looks to return from suspension.

Roosters are unchanged from Round 27.

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RAIDERS v BRONCOS

Sunday, 4:05pm, Bruce Stadium, Canberra

Raiders: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Savelio Tamale 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Jed Stuart 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Zac Hosking 13. Corey Horsburgh

Bench: 14. Owen Pattie 15. Simi Sasagi 16. Morgan Smithies 17. Ata Mariota

Reserves: 18. Matt Nicholson 19. Danny Levi 20. Ethan Sanders 21. Noah Martin 22. Trey Mooney

Broncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Josiah Karapani 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Deine Mariner 6. Billy Walters 7. Ben Hunt 8. Corey Jensen 9. Cory Paix 10. Payne Haas 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan

Bench: 14. Tyson Smoothy 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Ben Talty 17. Jaiyden Hunt

Reserves: 18. Jesse Arthars 19. Fletcher Baker 20. Delouise Hoeter 21. Jack Gosiewski 22. Jock Madden

Team news: The Raiders get all 10 players back, including Josh Papali’i, who reportedly sustained an ankle injury at training last week.

Gehamat Shibasaki returns from club suspension at left centre, forcing Jesse Arthars to the reserves.

Reece Walsh has also been named despite leaving training early with a calf injury.

Adam Reynolds will not return this week.

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HOOKER

This looks like a bit of a two-man race between Harry Grant and Blayke Brailey for me.

Tom Starling on a dry track in a day fixture with points likely is a flyer, as are Connor Watson and Wayde Egan.

However, it’s not a position I’ll be getting tricky in.

Grant and Brailey are the guaranteed 80-minute players with attacking upside.

Fresh off a two-week spell, Grant looks promising, however, the Bulldogs possess the best defence in the competition and will prove hard to crack through the middle.

The Roosters middles are one of the most vulnerable in the competition, conceding 25% of all tries through the centre third.

That’s the biggest percentage through the middle of any team in the competition.

For this reason, I’m leaning towards Brailey over Grant.

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FRONT-ROW

I think it’s a case of not over-thinking front-row, there are better positions to go against the crowd.

Payne Haas averaged 87 points in the regular season, which is 15 clear of the next best in the position for Supercoach finals in Joseph Tapine at 72.

The likes of Tapine, Addin Fonua-Blake, and Naufahu Whyte need to score a try with a linebreak to essentially match what Haas does in base and power alone.

He’ll play huge minutes down in Canberra and has been offloading at will, lock him in and don’t think twice.

If you did want to roll the dice, it’d be that man, Tapine, who would be the clear number two pick.

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2RF

We don’t have access to ownership stats yet, but I suspect Eliesa Katoa will be the most owned 2RF.

Hudson Young averaged a couple more points in the regular season, but Katoa, to me, feels the safe 70 point player with attacking upside.

However, on match-ups, I like Young against the at times questionable Broncos defence.

Dry conditions in the capital on Sunday afternoon should see the footy thrown around plenty, which will play into the hands of Young.

Katoa gets the Bulldogs’ left edge defence, which is statistically the second best in the NRL this season, having conceded just 26 tries across the entire season.

Katoa also loses his partner in crime, Jahrome Hughes which is huge for his scoring potential.

There’s plenty of opportunity to go against the two that I suspect will be most popular, though.

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The likes of Erin Clark, Angus Crichton and Isaah Yeo all make an appeal.

The slightly more left-field play to me though, is Briton Nikora, who is currently listed in the reserves but could return from a lengthy suspension, in an excellent match-up with Sam Walker.

He lacks the base of the previously mentioned players, but his attacking upside is as good as any.

Riskier, but with plenty of reward if he can find one of those glorious lines to score on the right edge.

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HALFBACK

Nathan Cleary is the obvious selection here, and you’d be brave to opt against him, especially with the prospect of a three-times multiplier as captain.

He’s fresh off a 150 against the Dragons to end the regular season.

While the Warriors could put up a huge fight, the bookies have this as the most one-sided fixture of the weekend.

Cleary looks the play to me, but he’ll be extremely highly owned, so there’s a genuine alternative elsewhere.

Nicho Hynes takes on the Roosters, who defensively aren’t exactly sound.

Sam Walker has upside, however I think Cronulla’s defence gives me a little more confidence than the Roosters.

He’s the wildcard in the pack, but not for me.

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FIVE-EIGHTH

You could go a stack of different ways at five-eighth, which is a wide open position, as it has been all year in Supercoach.

With no Jayden Campbell available in finals, the position could be topped by anyone.

Cameron Munster feels the safest play, his base and power are strong, and he loves the big stage.

Coming up against the Bulldogs resilient defence is the concern.

Strange is the in-form playmaker against Brisbane, he’ll get the optimal conditions for points to flow, but he also has a lot of low scores in him.

Blaize Talagi is the wildcard.

If Penrith delivers on expectation and puts a decent amount of points on it could be the finals debutant who scores best. 

While I think Penrith win, I suspect the Warriors won’t prove a walk in the park, so the low floor of Talagi scares me off.

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CENTRE/WING

Close your eyes, throw a dart, and hope it finds the bullseye when selecting your CTW pick.

This could go to just about anyone, which leads me to opt for a base and power specialist for reliability with a favourable match-up.

That man is Brian To’o, who is another that relishes the big stage.

Returning from a two-week layoff should have him fresh to go.

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Mark Nawaqanitawase and Daniel Tupou have appeal, but I don’t love attacking players against the Sharks.

It’s not that they aren’t capable of leaking points, they’re just quite balanced across the park defensively, so I struggle to pinpoint where the points will be scored.

Off the back of a huge final round, Marky Marky will be popular, which leads me to want to look elsewhere.

I think there’ll be plenty of points in Canberra, making it a great game to target.

Brisbane’s weaker left edge defence and Canberra’s weaker right edge defence face each other, making the likes of Matt Timoko and Gehamat Shibasaki reasonable options.

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is the wildcard as he’s been given dual FLB-CTW for finals.

He scored 92 against the Sea Eagles in the final round, and racked up a mammoth 55 in base the week prior against the Eels.

Easily the toughest spot to pick in the game.

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FULLBACK

Reece Walsh comes into the finals with the hottest of hands, but a calf concern that saw him fail to finish training leaves a question mark over his selection.

If he’s back running at full speed, come captain’s ru,n he’ll be the most popular pick, if there’s any doubt though, it’ll be enough for me to avoid.

He relies on his explosive speed for everything he does, while goal-kicking duties will also come under threat if he’s injured.

He also scored 9 points in 80 minutes against the Raiders in Canberra in round 2…

James Tedesco will get through a mountain of work and is by far the safest pick in the position.

Coming off a poor finish against the Dragons will keep people away from Dylan Edwards, making him an extremely viable point of difference play, having averaged 80 points this season.

With doubt over Walsh for now, Teddy looks the play to me.