NRL Supercoach fixture analysis 2026: Draw winners and losers

Analysing fixtures is one of the most important factors when selecting your NRL Supercoach team for Round 1.

It’s not rocket science, a soft first five fixtures makes a player substantially more appealing to start, while a tough first five fixtures takes away from their early season prospects.

Of course this is a guide and a guide only, there are so many different factors to take into consideration that will influence strength of schedule.

The obvious one being that some clubs are pegged as big improvers, while others may be entering transition periods with bigger amounts of player turnover and potential regression.

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There’s also home and away fixtures to factor in, as well as day v night games.

You can get as technical as you’d like, but hopefully the below provides a decent guide for your Round 1 research.

What must be noted is that teams typically defender better early in the season, attacking units are clunkier and historically less points are scored.

Big blowout scorelines that occur frequently in the backend of the season tend to be far less frequent.

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Most points conceded on average in 2025

(1 = most conceded, 17 = least conceded)

Team	Points conceded	System
Titans	22,093 (921PPG)	1
Cowboys	21,860 (911PPG)	1
Knights	21,603 (900PPG)	1
Rabbitohs	21,465 (894PPG)	1
Dragons	20,717 (863PPG)	2
Panthers	20,650 (860PPG)	2
Tigers	20,632 (860PPG)	2
Sea Eagles	20,488 (854PPG)	2
Dolphins	20,459 (852PPG)	3
Eels	20,311 (846PPG)	3
Warriors	19,971 (832PPG)	3
Roosters	19,664 (819PPG)	3
Raiders	19,582 (816PPG)	4
Sharks	19,524 (813PPG)	4
Storm	18,886 (787PPG)	4
Broncos	18,573 (774PPG)	4
Bulldogs	18,530 (772PPG)	4

It’s a pretty straight forward system, I’ve broken up the table into four groupings based on ladder position of Supercoach points conceded in 2025.

Below, I’ve gone through the first five fixtures of each club and landed on a total number of points, resulting in their strength of schedule ranking for the first five rounds.

If a club has a bye in the first five rounds, I’ve taken their sixth game into consideration.

While home and away fixture hasn’t come into the ranking, or byes, I’ve added it for reference.

A neutral venue includes any that is played away from both regular home grounds, E.g. Penrith v Cronulla in Bathurst in Round 2.

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Team	Difficulty (1 = easy)	Home / Away / Neutral	Byes
1. Tigers	9	H: 2 A: 2 N: 1	Round 1
2. Cowboys	10	H: 2 A: 2 N: 1
2. Bulldogs	10	H: 2 A: 2 N: 1	Round 2
4. Storm	12	H: 2 A: 3 N: –
4. Roosters	12	H: 2 A: 3 N: –	Round 5
4. Dolphins	12	H: 3 A: 2 N: –
7. Broncos	13	H: 3 A: 2 N: –
7. Sharks	13	H: 3 A: 1 N: 1
7. Sea Eagles	13	H: 3 A: 2 N: –	Round 3
7. Dragons	13	H: 2 A: 2 N: 1
11. Raiders	14	H: 2 A: 3 N: –
11. Warriors	14	H: 3 A: 2 N: –
11. Eels	14	H: 2 A: 3 N: –
11. Knights	14	H: 2 A: 2 N: 1
11. Titans	14	H: 2 A: 3 N: –
16. Rabbitohs	16	H: 1 A: 2 N: 2	Round 4
17. Panthers	18	H: 2 A: 2 N: 1

Winners and losers:

Winners:

• Tigers: They’ve landed the easiest draw based on rival Supercoach points conceded last season. The round 1 bye is less than ideal. Also in their favour is three home games in Sydney, while the away clash to the Rabbitohs is at a neutral venue in Gosford.

• Cowboys: On paper, the Cows looks even better than the Tigers outside of the Storm in round 4, which is in Townsville. Two of five in Townsville isn’t ideal, while they do have the trip to Vegas to content with. Nonetheless, it’s appealing.

• Bulldogs: The rankings push towards the Dogs, but there are a few negative factors. The round 2 bye is the major issue, followed with a tough trip to Canberra. They face Penrith in round 6, which are the one in the rankings that really stand out to me as a side that’ll defend Supercoach points far better than last year’s ranking suggests. They also have the Vegas factor.

Losers:

• Penrith: The Riff have copped a brutal opening to the season. They play just two games at home, which remains CommBank Stadium in Parramatta, and a ‘home’ game in Bathurst. To begin, they face five of the top six best teams at defending Supercoach points in 2025.  

• Rabbitohs: On paper the Rabbitohs draw isn’t too bad, with games against the Dolphins, Roosters and Tigers. It gets tougher at the back end, with a round 4 bye into the Bulldogs and Raiders (Perth). Not an awful draw, but certainly awkward.

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