Supercoach World Cup Final Word | Round 3 trades, skippers and strategy

Supercoach World Cup Final Word | Round 3 trades, skippers and strategy

Another solid week. I’ve got 164 on the board with Bruno still to come, the loophole VC and a couple of bench scores doing their bit, and the double Ecuador defence finally landing me on the right side of the numbers.

The trades were a wash. Oyarzabal to Vini lost points, though it eased the sting of backing him so hard in week one. Courtois to Galindez came out level. Baumgartner to Pedri was about benching Musiala, and Mendes and Martinez went out for two nuffs to get loop options on the bench.

Net result: about what I’d have scored standing pat, just with an extra nuff to play with now.

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Round 3 is the toughest week so far by my read, which makes it a prime chance to climb.

Fixtures

Final round of the group stage, so the table splits three ways: teams already through, teams still scrapping, and teams already out. Two landmines to dodge. Dead rubbers where eliminated sides clock off, and rest risk where group winners wrap their stars in cotton wool.

The rule for the round is simple. Only target a team with a reason to go hard and a soft opponent to do it against. Motivation without a fixture is a grind. A fixture without motivation is a trap.

Teams that might rest

Mexico, USA, Germany and Argentina have all locked top spot. They can’t climb and can’t be caught, so expect rotation and early hooks. Argentina vs Jordan looks a treat on paper, but I’m fading all four regardless. A starter pulled at 60 is worse than a nailed-on 90 from a team that needs it.

France and Norway are both through but play each other for top spot, so they sit outside the rest bucket, though France could still freshen things up.

Fixtures to target

Attack incredible (>2.5 xG)	Attack strong (>2 xG)	Clean sheet incredible (>60%)	Clean sheet strong (>50%)
Netherlands vs Tunisia	Argentina vs Jordan	Netherlands vs Tunisia	Morocco vs Haiti
Côte d’Ivoire vs Curaçao	Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar		Belgium vs New Zealand
Morocco vs Haiti	Brazil vs Scotland		Argentina vs Jordan
England vs Panama			Senegal vs Iraq
Belgium vs New Zealand			England vs Panama
Senegal vs Iraq			Brazil vs Scotland
			Côte d’Ivoire vs Curaçao

Teams in italics have rest potential.

The genuine plays are Netherlands (Tunisia have shipped nine and are gone), Morocco (full strength to dodge second and a likely Netherlands tie), Côte d’Ivoire and Belgium (toothless, but they need a result against the softest opponent going). Senegal vs Iraq is the cheeky one. They can still sneak through in third, but it needs a big result here plus other games falling their way. Either way, 2.5 expected goals against a side that’s leaked seven is juicy. Brazil vs Scotland is tighter.

England vs Panama is the wildcard. Soft fixture now, but if England beat Ghana and lock top spot they join the rest pile and the shine comes off. Watch that Ghana result before you commit.

Trade Plans

The frame for the round: target teams with genuine motivation and a soft opponent, and look past anyone who’s already locked their spot.

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Netherlands

• Gakpo is the most likely attacker: 1.36 xG for two goals, plus 0.60 xA for an assist.
• Dumfries is basically a winger in a defender’s shirt: 0.59 xA for two assists.
• Van Dijk is the safe play with a Round 1 goal, but it’s hard to go past Dumfries.

Côte d’Ivoire

• No talisman hogging the xG. Diallo is my slight favourite of the attackers at 0.49 xG, a nose ahead of Diomandé (0.73 xA, 0.27 xG), though spending a forward slot on either is the question.
• Singo is a base play, not attacking, his Round 1 assist his only chance created. Fofana (GK) is the better route to the clean sheet.

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Morocco

• Saibari and Hakimi are my two picks, locked and boring.
• Saibari sits on 0.94 xG, Hakimi on 0.50 xG plus 0.32 xA, and both pile up good base stats.
• Full strength expected against an out Haiti.

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Senegal

• Sarr is the pick at 1.47 xG, even if the Forward listing makes the slot a tough ask.
• Jackson over Mané for me. Just an assist so far, but I back him even with Mané’s elite base stats this week.
• Diouf is the smokey: only 144 minutes but some assist threat, though I don’t trust their defence.

England

• Kane is the popular Haaland swap, if England have something to play for.
• Caveat: lock top spot against Ghana and the Panama game loses its shine.

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Belgium

• Toothless so far: 1.35 xG in game one, 1.79 in game two.
• I’m firming on De Bruyne as my pick, even if I’m not sold on the ceiling.
• The other route is Courtois plus a defender, with Mechele‘s base stats the pick there.

Who I’m moving on

• Haaland: the France fixture is brutal, but can you ever really bet against him? This feels like maybe the one week you can.
• The German picks (Musiala, Wirtz): rests are coming, so it’s time to move them on or bench them.
• Valverde (17.5%): not convinced by Uruguay at that ownership, I’d look elsewhere.
• Colombia players: Portugal should be a tough night.

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On the fence

• Holding Olise and Mbappe for now: Norway do concede, and France sit only just under the two-goal line on my table.
• Ecuador is the fence-sitter. If Germany rest enough they could nick a result, but I’m not running a double defence there.

My planned moves

• Musiala > Saibari
• Livramento (defender nuff) > Dumfries
• Haaland > Gakpo or Kane (depending on England’s result)
• Galindez > Courtois (reversing my Round 2 move)
• Wirtz > De Bruyne
• GK nuff > Martinez (also a Round 2 reversal, only if Courtois doesn’t deliver)

Loophole Strategy

What I learned in Round 2: the loops worked well for me. They came out scoring about the same as the players I ditched, but the safety was worth it.

My Round 3 plan:

• Not a week for fancy looping. I’m expecting a fair few benchings, so I’m keeping it simple.
• Likely benching Cucurella, Pacho and one of Bruno or Pedri.
• The keeper is the loop I’ll actually look at. It’s the optimal spot, since looping there doesn’t change the formation you play.
• Back to the full loop toolkit from next week.

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Captains

Kane and Messi are the two huge skipper shouts, and on talent it’s a coin flip. The catch is the one stalking the whole round: resting risk. Both play on the final Sunday, England at 7am and Argentina at noon our time, and with Argentina already top of their group (England maybe joining them after Ghana), a rest or an early hook is live for either.

So this is a week to lean on the loop for safety. Captain Kane or Messi if they play, but set your vice on someone earlier and safer: Diallo, Gakpo or Vini all take the field before that final Sunday. If your skipper gets rested, the VC score doubles and you’re covered. If they start, you bank the ceiling.

The smokey is Saibari. Morocco at full strength against an out Haiti is a tidy spot for a differential armband if you want to zag.

VC: Diallo / Gakpo / Vini

C: Kane / Messi

Other options:

• Saibari